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They do. They get equal odds for top 4 actually. It’s 5th - 7th where it starts to matter.
They do. 2 and 3 have just different odds for 5 and 6, while 2 can't get lower than 6 and 3 lower than 7.
They do. They get equal odds for top 4 actually. It’s 5th - 7th where it starts to matter.
Not that I’m complaining, but what with Houston coming up with these late wins?
#2 is ours baaaaaby!!! Atleast in the regular season
I think they did the same last year? When it no longer matters, bad teams and players do better.
They do, but 2 can only drop to 6 in the worst case, and 3 can drop to 7. That’s what all the ing hair pulling and gnashing of teeth is about.
Everytime I go to Tankathon for s and giggles to simulate the lottery selection the spurs fall lol
They're almost guaranteed to fall. They only have slightly over a fifty percent chance to stay in the top four alone which means at two or three even in that window they're falling. In almost every scenario the Spurs will drop spots.
Huh. Seems weird, that a team that’s purposely been tanking the entire season goes out and gets wins this late in the season.
I think that once they could not catch Detroit for the worse record it didn't really matter as long as they stayed in top 3 which they are no matter the late wins
Curious if anyone knows what day the coin flip will take place for the tiebreaker between Houston and San Antonio.
If Spurs miss top 2, it's a failure of a season.
I don't know, but would think it would happen when the lottery happens. There will be a lot of coins tosses going on whenever it is.
Same. Prepare for the meltdown on here when Spurs fall to 5-7 lol.
Exactly, which is why pre lottery 2 or3 doesn’t matter to me.
Yeah, because people are morons. They are most likely to fall in that range. They're still going to get a good player. It's called a lottery for a reason. Move on.
It's slightly more likely we make top 4 than not, but it's almost a toss up (52% vs 48%). The job is done, now it's praying and waiting and praying and waiting...
you might think the lottery odds are unfair to the spurs but i think it's actually better, because the spurs don't need to tank every year to get a high pick. being in the 5 to 12 range will recharge the talent. I know people are hoping for the silver bullet blue lock player, but tanking is hard and the spurs will build brick by brick the right way
It's kind of rich for a fanbase that won two of the biggest lotteries in league history against very long odds and only in the first year of 'tanking' in each of those years to get upset if they lose the lottery this year.
tbf wmby better have a votive candle lighted and be praying the rosary he ends up in SA and not houston or detroit
If the league hadn't allowed the biggest screw job in history to go down five years ago and/or had rewarded the Spurs at some point in the previous 3 lotteries, I suspect most rational people wouldn't have the feeling of being "owed".
Especially considering this league has a long history of, when franchises fall on hard times for things they had little to no control over, magically having lottery luck occur in short order.
I meant that if they are #2 or #3 worst record after the coin flip, they are likely to drop either way.
Number 2 worst team has a 14.0% chance at #1 and a 13.4% chance at #2. So what is, that, like a 73% chance of dropping?
Number 3 worst team has the same chances at #1 and #2 and then a 12.7% chance of staying at #3. They actually have a less chance of dropping, at like 61%.
The burden of being at the top of the mountain (in this case, the lottery mountain) is that there is only one way to go: down.
Rather than thinking in terms of "dropping" from picks 1, 2 or 3, it is better to just assume the 1, 2 and 3 slots are picking 4th (which is roughly the expected value of their slots). In that case, there is a 52% chance of staying put or improving, and a 48% of dropping. There is no "dropping from 1" - because even with the #1 slot, you don't have 1 until you win the lotto, which is precisely the point. Fans naturally want to view it as "Dropping from 2 to 5", but that's not really the right way to view it.
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