***** The Official 2014 Avante Football Thread *****

[Avante]

I'd take Luck 7 days a week and twice on Sundays. and you know i love Wilson

Right now RW has a better comp % than Luck does.

Luck throws the ball a lot because he has to, that gets rewarded? Nobody throws more INT's than he does.
I have no doubts of any kind that RW could do the same things Luck does if he was asked to throw more.

[spurraider21]

Right now RW has a better comp % than Luck does.

Luck throws the ball a lot because he has to, that gets rewarded? Nobody throws more INT's than he does.
I have no doubts of any kind that RW could do the same things Luck does if he was asked to throw more.

Seattle and Indy are built very differently. Luck has to carry the entire offense, and he does. He's also been much better in 2 minute drills this year. Wilson has struggled in those situations in a few of their losses this year, most memorably against San Diego and Dallas.

If Wilson had receivers like Hilton, Wayne and good pass catching tight ends like Luck does, I'm sure his numbers would rise. But I've seen Luck carry an offense consistently. Maybe Wilson has that ability (I'd believe so), but until I've seen him do it, I'm going to give Luck the nod

[Avante]

Seattle and Indy are built very differently. Luck has to carry the entire offense, and he does. He's also been much better in 2 minute drills this year. Wilson has struggled in those situations in a few of their losses this year, most memorably against San Diego and Dallas.

If Wilson had receivers like Hilton, Wayne and good pass catching tight ends like Luck does, I'm sure his numbers would rise. But I've seen Luck carry an offense consistently. Maybe Wilson has that ability (I'd believe so), but until I've seen him do it, I'm going to give Luck the nod

When looking at running backs the only stat that really matters is.....average per carry.....that says it all. When it comes to QB's it's that....completion %. RW has always had a high completion %. Yes I know...:"but he doesn't throw it as often"....I get that but it's real obvious RW can pass the ball. Give him those Bears receivers and he'd throwing for 4000 yards.

[spurraider21]

When looking at running backs the only stat that really matters is.....average per carry.....that says it all. When it comes to QB's it's that....completion %. RW has always had a high completion %. Yes I know...:"but he doesn't throw it as often"....I get that but it's real obvious RW can pass the ball. Give him those Bears receivers and he'd throwing for 4000 yards.

i like yards/attempt instead of completion%... even though i hate looking at one stat as an end-all-be-all

lets also not forget Luck has thrown for 38 touchdowns with 2 games to go. wilson has yet to reach 20 this season

[Avante]

i like yards/attempt instead of completion%... even though i hate looking at one stat as an end-all-be-all

lets also not forget Luck has thrown for 38 touchdowns with 2 games to go. wilson has yet to reach 20 this season

Let's not forget that RW has a career passer rating of 98.9 compared to Luck's 86.9. Lets also not ignore Luck's 41 INT's compared to RW's 24. Yes Luck has 82Td's to RW's 69.

[Avante]

Will we see another first for Russell Wilson? His firsts...

ties the rookie TD record
100 passer rating first two seasons
300 yd passer/100 yard rusher in a game
most wins in first three seasons

Will he add...first QB to win a playoff game after a SB winning season in a long time?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I have never ever seen a worst coach/QB combo than what the Bears have when it comes to lacking fire. Two zombies/mummies could light more fire than those two. Not an once of...GRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought to myself....this is it for the Bears, their last shot at showing the country they don't suck, just maybe the'll show up"......talk about ST00-PEED! there it is, what was I thinking? The Saints were the "obvious" play and I missed it....DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

Will we see another first for Russell Wilson? His firsts...

ties the rookie TD record
100 passer rating first two seasons
300 yd passer/100 yard rusher in a game
most wins in first three seasons

Will he add...first QB to win a playoff game after a SB winning season in a long time?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I have never ever seen a worst coach/QB combo than what the Bears have when it comes to lacking fire. Two zombies/mummies could light more fire than those two. Not an once of...GRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought to myself....this is it for the Bears, their last shot at showing the country they don't suck, just maybe the'll show up"......talk about ST00-PEED! there it is, what was I thinking? The Saints were the "obvious" play and I missed it....DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're not a real 49ers fan. You suck Russell Wilson's way too much to claim as such.

[Avante]

You're not a real 49ers fan. You suck Russell Wilson's way too much to claim as such.

Wanna talk Niner running backs....

Gary Lewis
Vic Washington
"Famous" Amos Lawrence
Ricky Patton
J.D. Smith
Delvin Williams
Earl Cooper
Paul Hofer

....oh yeah, you can't because you've never heard of any of them.

Big time Niner fan here, can teach the histoey of 49er football. So wrong again as you always are.


I just saw something special in RW back at Wisconsin. And he has done all I said he would do. It is a bummer he landed on our arch rival, but it is what it is.

It's looking like I won't have to deal with your...DUH!..much longer isn't it?

[Avante]

Anyone still think.....ya gotta pass the ball, ya gotta pass the ball.....well?

Why are the Cowboys having the season they are, oh yeah...DeMarco Murray. What are the Broncos relying on right now, oh yeah....the running game. Who are the defending champs....a game manager at QB, the ultimate monster back and defense. What are the Pats doing better than ever......defense!

What hapened to my Niners, we stopped doing what?

[Malik Hairston]

That trend I mentioned to you won again tonight, as we discussed a few days ago..

Home dogs at 7.5 or higher are now 28-9 in the past 37 games..big trend, hope we get a few more shots at some of those this season..I only bet 1 unit, sadly, was too scared to bet more on Geno Smith..

Avante

Another chance at playing this trend this week, the Redskins are a +8.5 home dog..

I'm not going to play them straight up, but I'll probably tease them with the Pats or Seahawks..

[Avante]

Avante

Another chance at playing this trend this week, the Redskins are a +8.5 home dog..

I'm not going to play them straight up, but I'll probably tease them with the Pats or Seahawks..

The last 4 weeks of any season begins a different situation. I no longer look for trends not that that one isn;'t a solid one. Now it's about the playoffs. Good teams looking for playoff positioning, bad teams wanting the season to end.

Check it out....

Pats covered
Colts covered
Broncos covered
Bengals coverd
Sants covered
Cards covered
Cowboys covered
Steelers covered
Ravens didn't
Eagles didn't
Lions didn't
Packers didn't

So just by playing playoff contenders with a solid QB....8-4.

Right now ya wanna look at QB play. Brady, Peyton, Luck, Romo all won you $$$ only Rodgers losing any.

[Malik Hairston]

I teased the Pats and Colts last week, won huge..I agree that betting on the teams in playoff positioning vs. ty teams is the best bet..

This week, I'm going to tease a combination of the Pats/Seahawks/Packers again..not sure if I'll go with a 3-team teaser, since I think that's generally too much, but 2-team teasers have been profitable for me, as of late..

NFL is easiest to bet on from about week 13 to week 17, when playoff positioning matters, and bottom-feeders are ready for their vacation..

[Avante]

I teased the Pats and Colts last week, won huge..I agree that betting on the teams in playoff positioning vs. ty teams is the best bet..

This week, I'm going to tease a combination of the Pats/Seahawks/Packers again..not sure if I'll go with a 3-team teaser, since I think that's generally too much, but 2-team teasers have been profitable for me, as of late..

You have Brady/RW/Rodgers.....which is what I'm talking about.

I love that Lions vs Bears play. The Lions are 7-1 in this "spot" the last 8. And this Lions team is better than last years while the Bears are the worst D in the league.

Another strong play will be the Steelers at home vs a Chiefs team that struggles on the road. The Steelers with the better QB at home, with the playoffs on the line. Love that combo in December.

[spurraider21]

Ok starting Sunday I will be taking.....Denver, Niners, Seattle, Indy and Cinncy every single week. I might add a few plays that look good. Will probaly take Niners to cover at home vs Sea and vice versa in Seattle.

I will post the line but if something happened and I failed to post that week they are my plays. This computer is on it's last legs.

It's a time proven system the one I started using about five years ago, it's not as much about winning as it is ....how much will I win? Just the last two years an average,...55-32.

Denver: 7-7
49ers: 4-10
Seattle: 8-6
Indy: 10-4
Cincy: 7-7

this power system is a combined 36-34 this year. for your standard 110 to win 100 bets, that leads to a total of -$140

this is why systems/trends are for chumps. rather than stick to this phony bologna system, you've made your picks on a week to week basis and actually having a profit. well done

[Avante]

Denver: 7-7
49ers: 4-10
Seattle: 8-6
Indy: 10-4
Cincy: 7-7

this power system is a combined 36-34 this year. for your standard 110 to win 100 bets, that leads to a total of -$140

this is why systems/trends are for chumps. rather than stick to this phony bologna system, you've made your picks on a week to week basis and actually having a profit. well done

Take out a Niners team that had injuries (no Smith) on the defense and now it's....

32-20

The last three years just playing....Den/Indy/Seattle/Cincy.....77-46.

This stuff is all about systems/trends/stats. Since week one I've gone 55-42....here. And that's betting systems/trends/stats.

You look for "spots" where one team has a huge advantage when it comes to trends. Yep, homework. The bottom line is are you winning $ as we saw, I pulled myself out of a - 330 hole to being over a grand. I think I'll stick to my systems/trends/stats.

[spurraider21]

Take out a Niners team that had injuries (no Smith) on the defense and now it's....

32-20

This stuff is all about systems/trends/stats. Since week one I've gone 55-42....here. And that's betting systems/trends/stats.

You look for "spots" where one team has a huge advantage when it comes to trends. Yep, homework. The bottom line is are you winning $ as we saw, I pulled myself out of a - 330 hole to being over a grand. I think I'll stick to my systems/trends/stats.

you can't just "take things out"... take off the niners... take off week 1.

plus even with that being said you are inflating your record with those 2 bogus picks. and even if we grant you that, 55-42 isn't even 60%, let alone 70%... and thats after removing your week 1 debacle

[Avante]

you can't just "take things out"... take off the niners... take off week 1.

plus even with that being said you are inflating your record with those 2 bogus picks. and even if we grant you that, 55-42 isn't even 60%, let alone 70%... and thats after removing your week 1 debacle

Do you really think I'm playing the Niners without their stud pass rusher?

Stop with the bogus picks deal, those were just as legit as the picks I make here, just because I posted them on another board doesn't take away their validity. I do count them because they are part of my season, so let's keep it real.


Dude, nobody hits 70% ok, and it's really hard to hit 60%. Most guys hit around 55=60 if they are good at this. It's more about money management, as you have seen I know when to play the big $$$. I've only lost one big $ play.

Want to see a site where some of the top handicappers in the world have their results? The leader is at 58%.

[spurraider21]

Dude, nobody hits 70% ok, and it's really hard to hit 60%. Most guys hit around 55=60 if they are good at this. It's more about money management, as you have seen I know when to play the big $$$. I've only lost one big $ play.

Want to see a site where some of the top handicappers in the world have their results? The leader is at 58%.

oh so you're saying your claims that you can hit 70%, or even 60% were complete bull ? ok

[Avante]

oh so you're saying your claims that you can hit 70%, or even 60% were complete bull ? ok

60% is very realistic and I might hit it this season, I have hit it a few times. 70% is for the dummies here, that showed me just how clueless this place is. NOBODY...can predict 70%.

http://nflpickwatch.com/ats/

[spurraider21]

70% is for the dummies here, that showed me just how clueless this place is. NOBODY...can predict 70%

nice copout to your seasons of failures

you are currently sitting at 55-45 after a really strong week 15.

you'd have to hit 12 in a row to get up to 60%

[Avante]

nice copout to your seasons of failures

you are currently sitting at 55-45 after a really strong week 15.

you'd have to hit 12 in a row to get up to 60%

You can't be this naive. You honestly haven't noticed a huge difference this season? Take away that horrendous week one and add a couple plays I talked about but bailed on because of bogus weather reports and I'm sitting at 57-42. That's not bad.

I don't like making $$$$ for others who do nothing. Anyone playing a long with me here has won over a 1000 bucks and will be winning more.

This is my first season of giving out my legit $$$ making plays. I haven't had a losing season in over a decade,

[spurraider21]

yep, you are at 55-45, +$1,010

best season you've had here by a mile. and just so you know, nobody is buying your "i was giving fake picks" BS because you were giving us the same sort of analysis and "spots" the past couple of years as you are giving this year

[Avante]

yep, you are at 55-45, +$1,010

best season you've had here by a mile. and just so you know, nobody is buying your "i was giving fake picks" BS because you were giving us the same sort of analysis and "spots" the past couple of years as you are giving this year

Well when a guy tells me...."2014 will be my first year of giving out free $$$$ making plays"....then precedes to give out free $$$$$ making plays I get it. You for some reason don't want to get it.

Your betting track thread has lost all it allure hasn't it, nobody has to say now, do they? It was suppose to be...Avante sucks at this doesn't he everyone?.....sorta backfired didn't it? Like I said this will be fun and it has been, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

And I always do far better in the playoffs as you'll see.

[spurraider21]

i'm not saying its true or not.

i'm just saying nobody here buys it. at all.

[Avante]

i'm not saying its true or not.

i'm just saying nobody here buys it. at all.

With a guy like myself who can take everyone here totally to school when talking pro football it has to be ...."no you didn't!!!!!!!"....I know this. Look at how important it is that I don't get credit for my Ravens play. I ...MUST...fail, right?

I'm the real deal guy, the genuine article. An historian/gambler.

Why this need to fight it to the degree you do? Dude, I saw your Raiders play in their very first game, don't you think I might have picked up on a few things since 1960?