It's insane
Couldn't be any clearer unless you're a brain dead maga .
Recession wont happen until 2026 and it won't be worse than the 2022 mini recession/stagflation under Biden and the Dem trifecta when stocks tumbled while groceries doubled and gas went up to $5.20/gallon.
We might already be there according to G-S.
https://x.com/SullyCNBC/status/1952035275405746235
Holy .
Because of covid. This currently is because of an mentally ill criminal. And you guys still will forever love him.
services employment down
new business orders down
core PCE a touch hot, pros say the ISM number implies a ~4% annualized rate of inflation
“What you are seeing…and what you are hearing…is NOT what is really happening!”
whew! Thank God!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/...140510946.htmlUS services activity flatlined in July, ISM data shows
(Reuters) -U.S. services sector activity unexpectedly flatlined in July with little change in orders and a further weakening in employment even as input costs climbed by the most in nearly three years, underscoring the ongoing drag of uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policy on businesses.
The Ins ute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 last month from 50.8 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would rise to 51.5. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.
Economists say businesses continue to struggle to digest the aggressive tariffs President Donald Trump is imposing on goods imported from abroad. Last week Trump, ahead of a self-imposed deadline of August 1, issued a barrage of notices informing scores of trading partners of higher import taxes set to be imposed on their exports to the U.S.
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Inflation until now has largely remained moderate because businesses have been selling merchandise ac ulated before import duties came into effect, but data last week showed prices in some categories of goods like home furnishings and recreational gear have begun rising briskly. More benign inflation from the services sector has helped keep overall inflation in check, but the ISM data brings into question whether that trend will continue or further fan concerns about the emergence of stagflation.
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you're daydreaming again
short of utter annihilation there is no rational limit to how much worse things can get
your party put a petulant sadist in charge, good luck!
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/tops...ut/ar-AA1JW2TRAnalysis-Sliding US rig count outpaces efficiency gains, threatening onshore oil output
HOUSTON (Reuters) -The falling number of oil and gas rigs deployed across the United States is reaching a level that would indicate onshore crude output from the world's top producer could fall in early 2026.
U.S. energy companies are producing record amounts of oil, much of it from onshore shale fields. New techniques and technology, like longer lateral wells, automation and more powerful equipment, have driven productivity gains across the industry that have allowed oil companies to pump more with fewer rigs and less capital.
But the number of rigs working in U.S. shale fields has almost fallen so low - and is projected to keep falling - that those improvements will not be enough to keep onshore U.S. production rising, or even steady in some basins, analysts say.
The anticipated decline comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to raise oil and gas output, and as OPEC+ lifts its production targets in an attempt to take back market share from the U.S. and other rival producers.
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The Permian rig count last fell by one in the week to August 1, to 259, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes.
"We have seen a 25% improvement over the last few years in rig efficiency, but the rig count has fallen over 30% over that same period. Put simply, the rig count declines have begun to outpace drilling efficiency gains," said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs.
"This is a recent development," he added.
Market intelligence firm Energy Aspects expects the Permian rig count to continue falling, slipping below its own modeled 255 threshold for steady production, early next year. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees that basin's rig count falling to 245 in early 2026 as prices fall due to higher OPEC+ output.
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"If the rig count drops don't turn around soon, we're going to see U.S. production declines well into 2026, including in the Permian basin," said Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones. He anticipates Permian production, which currently stands at 6.55 million bpd, to fall by 150,000 bpd to 6.25 million bpd in 2026, due to fewer rigs and completions as well as a degradation in well productivity.
Declines in oil production as a result of a falling rig count will take six to nine months to show, due to the time it takes to drill and complete wells, analysts said.
Novi Labs expects Permian production will fall slightly by the end of the year, before dipping into the sub-6.5 million bpd range in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026 at 6.55 million bpd. The EIA projects output to average 6.53 million bpd in 2025, before edging down to 6.5 million bpd in 2026.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2804119.htmlAlmost 2 million Americans are collecting unemployment in highest figures since pandemic times
Almost two million Americans are collecting unemployment in the highest figures since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The number of Americans who have been continuously receiving unemployment benefits rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in late July, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.
This unemployment number hasn’t been this high since November 2021.
The number of new unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 climbed by 7,000 to 226,000. It’s slightly above the 219,000 new claims economists had predicted, but it remains in the healthy range.
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Desirable factory and farm hand jobs should be available really soon!
Only if you have one of those backs that only breaks down - upon death!
...and only if you don't mind being owned by those farmers the gubmint needs to look out for!
Farms and hotels might be able to source workers from internment camps and Medicare rolls
At current federal minimum wage standards no doubt
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump...172847162.htmlTrump administration says Fannie and Freddie will go public by end of year and raise $30 billion
The Trump administration is looking to sell its stock holdings in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through a public offering that it believes could raise $30 billion and begin later this year.
The plans being discussed within the administration, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, could value these firms at a combined $500 billion or more and involve a 5% to 15% sale of Fannie and Freddie shares.
Still being debated is whether the mortgage giants would go public as two separate en ies or one combined company. The president is still weighing all of his options.
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Many housing experts and critics alike worry that fully privatizing these firms will cause investors to view their mortgage obligations as more risky, creating a ripple effect across the US housing market that would raise mortgage rates for homebuyers.
Making such a guarantee explicit without the government's ownership would require an act of Congress. That kind of federal guarantee could even prompt mortgage rates to fall, benefiting borrowers, but "political gridlock makes this unlikely," Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi noted in June.
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all Trump knows how to do is things up
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/i...ell-a-lot-likeIt’s Beginning to Smell a Lot Like Stagflation
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There is almost complete consensus among economists that tariffs are inflationary. As far as I can tell, the only dissenters are economists who work, directly or de facto, for the Trump administration. After all, a tariff is basically a selective sales tax imposed on goods produced abroad. Is there any scenario under which tariffs wouldn’t raise consumer prices?
The only way tariffs could fail to be inflationary is if foreign producers were to slash their selling prices in an attempt to retain their market share. There may be some foreign companies doing this, but for the most part it just isn’t happening. To keep consumer prices from rising in the face of a 15-point rise in average tariff rates, which is more or less what Trump has done, foreign companies would have to cut their dollar prices by more than 13 percent. In fact, import prices excluding tariffs have risen under Trump
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So is inflation happening? So far there have only been hints of tariff-driven inflation in official data. What seems to have happened so far is that U.S. companies rushed to import and stockpile foreign products before the Trump tariffs went into full effect, and are still to a large extent selling out of those stocks. Also, many companies were reluctant to raise prices, alienating customers, as long as there was a chance that Trump would make deals that brought tariffs significantly down again.
That, however, isn’t happening. It’s true that many of Trump’s tariffs are clearly illegal, and the courts could force him to reverse them. But I wouldn’t get my hopes up. And if the tariffs are here to stay, we can expect them to be passed on to buyers.
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Contrary to what many people believe, tariffs don’t necessarily lead to high unemployment. America had a high average tariff even before Smoot-Hawley — 15.8 percent in 1929 — but the unemployment rate in 1929 was under 3 percent.
The reason many economists believe that Trump’s tariffs will raise unemployment isn’t so much their level as the uncertainty they create. How can you expect businesses to make long-term investments when they don’t know whether they’ll be facing 10 percent or 35 percent tariffs a year or two from now?
You might argue that tariff uncertainty will abate now that Trump has made “deals” with some of our major trading partners. But these aren’t formal, signed trade agreements. And Trump’s claims about what other countries have agreed to — like his insistence that Europe has promised him a $600 billion slush fund and “I can do anything I want with it” — are contradicted by the countries themselves. So tariff uncertainty remains high. And the uncertainty created by mass arrests and deportations, which is equally likely to hurt business, is just getting started.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trum...tatistics.htmlTrump says he’s nominating E.J. Antoni as Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner
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Antoni is the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation and has been a longtime critic of the BLS.
“I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Highly Respected Economist, Dr. E.J. Antoni, as the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday evening.
“Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE,” Trump wrote. “I know E.J. Antoni will do an incredible job in this new role. Congratulations E.J.!”
The Senate would have to confirm Antoni’s nomination for him to take over BLS, which is a division of the Labor Department.
Antoni was a contributor to Project 2025, the controversial conservative policy blueprint designed to help Trump and his officials achieve a raft of goals in his second term in the White House.
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New reality will be manufactured, crisis averted.
"don't piss on my shoes and tell me it's raining"
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