Good idea tbh. Might feel better than healthy with a deep cleansing.
I did. I was feeling some sniffles, thought a cold was coming on. But now I feel cleansed. I think I might have to start making this a weekly routine tbh.
Good idea tbh. Might feel better than healthy with a deep cleansing.
I meant H1N1, my comment is still valid. He handled things better
H1N1 was not a bad one. Low rate of die
Still being silly I see sir! It’s wild how you seek attention .......
Has Crater shown his status or commented on Corona since his Trump criticism?
Sadly you can't read. I always said older with preexisting conditions are and were vulnerable. This is still what the data shows and will always show no matter the disease. Go through any country or state by state data. A vast majority are older than 70 with 1 plus pre existing condition. If that ever changes, I will gladly applaud you for keeping me on the path to safety.
Reminder of the tweet that began this debate.
I'm going to assume that projection didn't factor in all the mitigation efforts that came after it was made. Would that be a fair assumption?
No. In all recent assumptions since and leading up to the shut down of states in march, the cdc and health departments have been utilizing models that factored in social distancing measures, and have had to adjust those models numerous times. Which is their prerogative, but the numbers were off by too much, hence the furlouging of hospital employees and low hospital capacity numbers. Now its just about trying to save face as much as "save lives" which is, unfortunately what they have to do, but sad none the less.
Shut down the 5g towers and everyone would be cured...........funny how that works but government does nothing.....
You'll have to show me how that model was made since you claim to know it so intimately.
many countries with no 5G have coronavirus. Just another stupid rumor
still feasible. Already at 61000 only counting hospital deaths so the real number is over 100 000. Give it few more weeks and you’ll be around 200k.
So in short, the modeling was off. The at risk are those always at risk, and good hygiene is the best means to protect. /thread
I've already done the research. Your problem, like the original post, is regurgitating bias and gossip. Shocking we are all still alive.
I see you are on the blame trump campaign, but why stop there. Typical NYC hospital ceos, like others, make 1 million a year. Why weren't they prepared? The cdc and who recs to not be obese, over half of the population is, which results in public health lockdowns like this.
The problem is personal responsibility or lack thereof. Look it up yourself. Stating assumptions as facts and not being researched makes you look simple, fwiw.
Actually, you're completely full of when you say the modeling took mitigation efforts into account.
The one you cited was presented February 27 and it was NOT the AHA's estimate. It was the work of a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. So you missed the most basic fact about it.
https://www.nebraskamed.com/sites/de...r-covid-19.pdf
Also there was a story in Mid-March about the CDC models as well.
One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.
The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.
The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.
“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”
Those actions include testing for the virus, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/u...-estimate.html
So you're COMPLETELY wrong when you claim those early models took mitigation efforts into consideration. The explicitly did not.
Thats odd, when you search for errors in covid 19 modeling you find lots including: The most notable bounces in the IHME projections have been for the eventual total of U.S. deaths by early August, which is when many epidemiologists believe the outbreak will be tailing off. (Many expect daily deaths in the U.S. to fall to 10 or fewer by early June, from 2,000 or so in April.) Death projections for individual states have also fluctuated significantly.
The IHME website explains that, “As data continue to come in, our estimates may change. Specifically, new death data … have changed our projections.”
Its model differs from those used by almost all other epidemiologists.
Odd. You are moving the goalpost to later models from a different source.
Because you were completely wrong about the early models.
Try not changing your own subject, OK?
This is straight from the imperial college model that started all the fun modeling....
This would result in 81% of the US population, about 264 million people, contracting the disease. Of those, 2.2 million would die, including 4% to 8% of Americans over age 70. More important, by the second week in April, the demand for critical care beds would be 30 times greater than supply.
If mitigation practices are put in place, including a combination of case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those most at risk (over age 70), the peak critical care demand would reduce by 60%, and there would be half the number of deaths. But this scenario still produces an eightfold demand on critical care beds above surge capacity.
THE IMPERIAL COLLEGE MODEL DID.....but go on tell me more....
At any rate models aren't supposed to be right, they are guesses. But I am sure you knew that.... but they were completely inaccurate guesses.
Why did you cite the University of Nebraska model?
It's your research, dude. Why did you it up?
Poor Americans.
No wonder the rest of the world perceives the majority of you as dumb people when you have a president like that.
He really is re ed.
The handling of the virus. Jeez. Godspeed.
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