I agree.
The Spurs, particularly Duncan and Ginobili, will get plenty of rest going into game one. I expect those two, already playing very well, to have excellent game one's and I'd even go as far as to say that, at their absolute best, they're the two best players in the series. Because of consistency/durability, I could easily see the case for Nowitzki over Ginobili, but keep in mind I said "at their absolute best", which is what I think we'll see from Duncan and Ginobili in game one. Ginobili in particular is going to be fired up, having not played in the playoffs last season.
I think the Spurs jump out to sizable early lead and withstand enough Mavs runs to hold on. Similar to game one of the Suns series in '07. Though I'd feel more confident if I knew Hill would not only play, but resemble the player he's been the vast majority of the season.
Winning game one on the road sets up everything nicely. After game two, the teams play ever other day. The Mavs backs will be against the wall, so they'll probably win game two in convincing fashion and Pop will probably pull the plug early and save the key players for games three and four, which become, not must wins both, but obviously highly important.
The Spurs will realize this and capitalize on the opportunity, while also atoning for the game two embarrassment. Look for the Spurs to blitz the Mavs early in game three and never look back.
Game four becomes the penultimate game of the series. Either the Spurs end this game in firm control of the series or the Mavs draw even and regain home court. Tightly contested this will be and probably the best game of the series. Nip and tuck throughout, look for Duncan and Ginobili to carry the Spurs in crunch time and narrowly hang on for the win.
Game five, similar to game two (only even more pressing because a loss here and they're officially done), the Mavs will own. Pop, knowing that game six is in two days and is far more important to the Spurs than is game five, again pulls the plug early. Now, all of the pressure falls to the Spurs, as they're now expected to advance.
Which brings us to game six. The Spurs will treat this game like a game seven, which means all of the key players will play as many minutes as it takes to get the job done and it also means that Duncan and Ginobili again come up big in the clutch. Refusing to be denied, the Spurs outlast the Mavs in a well played game by both teams.
I expect this, Celtics/Heat, Jazz/Nuggets and possibly Lakers/Thunder to be the best first round series.
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. Gotta love Chuck! 
