The thing with the Heat is that people need to realize their losses are due to a lack of effort. What has happened everytime they've been beat? They come back and slaughter the team the next game. I do believe the Spurs have a chance, but the fact is that the Heat are a much better team at defending the PnR than Memphis and they are obviously far more talented.
The Spurs will have to play efficient low turnover basketball to have a shot. The two meetings this year tell us nothing so we'll see. We have a huge advantadge in the coaching department so hopefully that makes a difference.