Future Spur Chet Holmgren

[steak n eggs]

From a person that has no eye for talent at all, he looks like he has trouble when a defender gets physical with him. My sample set is small but it's just an observation. I felt like Timme was actually more comfortable with being physical.

[John B]

No one is saying he's bad, and he does like physicality, which is huge. But clearly he's not very strong and he struggled to impact the game very much. To me, he projects as a mobile Sean Bradley with a much, much better batch of skills. I would still take him #1.

just because he’s skinny tall white dude? Besides blocking and rebounding, the two are completely different players. If not for for Chet’s physique, he is the runaway #1 pick. The kid is a unicorn. And because of his fearlessness and motor, I have no doubt he would work with the NBA strengthening coaches to get stronger for the NBA level. And even if he becomes Nowitzki slow, he’s still 7 footer who can shoot and plenty of skills to spare. Shoot over a smaller defender, drive against slower bigs. This kid is going to create problem with the defense.

[rascal]

Won't be good in the NBA against bigger quicker athletes.

[rascal]

Stay away from white centers as top lottery picks. more often than not you'll get burned.

[GAustex]

I ain’t seeing the tall skinny dude being all that

[cd98]

A couple times in the waning minutes of the last game, he drove from the perimeter because the defender respected his 3 point shot, but he couldn't get to the rim. Instead, he just got to the block and then tried to spin around a few times before he just passed the ball. I mean, he should be getting layups or blocks on that because it is a one on one move. That caught my eye, and the fact that he got bodied in the low post on offense and defense. He blocked the guards at the rim and he was a big key to Zags winning, but it felt like he should've been capable of more, but was not and that concerns me on the NBA level.

[PhantomDashCam]

[stephen jackson]

Not a fan

[CGD]

This Duke/MSU is great. I’ll take Banchero please. Would also be happy with his front court running mate, Williams, with one of the later picks.

[tim_duncan_fan]

Struggling with physicality is a red flag. Do bigs ever get over that?

[R. DeMurre]

Mike Schmitz says +18, but the two box scores I saw say +16... Either way, kinda funny when a prospect is that far in the positive in 29 minutes in a 4 point game and that's his "bad" game.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Chet's interior defense is so good that he impacts the game positively even when he's not scoring well. When he's in he discourages drives to the hoop, which doesn't necessarily affect his counting stats but sure helps the team win and explains his impact stats.

[Poolboy5623]

The guy is a stick.

[paperboy77]

Actually the Zags getting bounced and his ineffective play might make him drop in the draft. Would be really nice if we could sneak in there.

[exstatic]

There’s lots of dinosaurs in this thread looking up at the asteroid in the sky. Shouldn’t surprise me. Same people don’t see the value of Poeltl.

It’s a vastly different game since 2015 when they changed the defensive rules to not allow you to fight through a pick. Everything is a switch now. You worry about Chet not being able to guard big centers. How many of those are there, guys who’s teams thrown the ball into the post when looking for points? Embiid? Late in the game, he gets gassed, and can’t play switches. In another two years, he’ll never be able to play them, and will get played off the floor.

[MultiTroll]

Chet will play forward, not center if he gets a real coach.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Mike Schmitz says +18, but the two box scores I saw say +16... Either way, kinda funny when a prospect is that far in the positive in 29 minutes in a 4 point game and that's his "bad" game.

I don't think any serious analyst has questioned that Holmgren is pretty dominant in college. The questions have come around whether he'll be able to do the same things against NBA players.

Most traditional big men take 2-3 years in the NBA to get stronger, learn the leverage, etc. We rarely know if they will be really good bigs until then. But Holmgren (in my opinion) is never going to be one of those kinds of centers. So when will we know with him? He gets half, probably more than half, of his rebounds on the basis of his enormous standing reach. That won't go as far against heavyweights who will move him too far out of position. I haven't watched every game, or anything close, but I'm pretty confident that he will be a predominantly weak-side shot blocker in the NBA (unlike, say, Walter Kessler who can stand his ground against other big men). All I've said is that when you start applying the NBA discount to some of his college dominance, he's much less of a unicorn.

I think a lot of us just get tired of people saying that he's the best big man prospect in history. He should go high in the draft. I'm just not convinced that he should be the automatic, unquestioned #1 pick.

[R. DeMurre]

I don't think any serious analyst has questioned that Holmgren is pretty dominant in college. The questions have come around whether he'll be able to do the same things against NBA players.

Most traditional big men take 2-3 years in the NBA to get stronger, learn the leverage, etc. We rarely know if they will be really good bigs until then. But Holmgren (in my opinion) is never going to be one of those kinds of centers. So when will we know with him? He gets half, probably more than half, of his rebounds on the basis of his enormous standing reach. That won't go as far against heavyweights who will move him too far out of position. I haven't watched every game, or anything close, but I'm pretty confident that he will be a predominantly weak-side shot blocker in the NBA (unlike, say, Walter Kessler who can stand his ground against other big men). All I've said is that when you start applying the NBA discount to some of his college dominance, he's much less of a unicorn.

I think a lot of us just get tired of people saying that he's the best big man prospect in history. He should go high in the draft. I'm just not convinced that he should be the automatic, unquestioned #1 pick.

Totally agree with this take. I picture him being used in a similar fashion to Evan Mobley next to Jarrett Allen. I don't even picture Holmgren at his peak being the best player on his NBA team, but more of a super glue guy.

[Leetonidas]

I wouldn't worry about the physicality thing, especially signed he's so young and clearly growing into his frame. Remember that KD was the weakest dude in his draft class and couldn't even do one bench press at the combine the NBA is soft as now so there aren't many bruisers getting physical with guys anymore. Really hard to pass on Chet if you have the pick

[NASpurs]

He could be the next Pokusveski as the next Holocaust survivor to make it in the NBA.

[The Truth #6]

He will probably be good in the NBA at the least because he can shoot 3s and block shots, if nothing else. He probably is overrated to some degree and probably shouldn’t be considered a lock #1, in part because there are some questions with all of the top players. Ivey could end up being the better player, and maybe moves further up as we get closer to the draft. It’s a weird draft.

[MultiTroll]

Whether he is #1 or #10, he can help.

Would you rather have Dougie McDermott or Chet at forward?

[Gagnrath]

I’m getting Bam Adebayo vibes in him, not a superstar but could be a multi-All Defensive guy. 10 years ago he could pair with Poeltl at PF. But with his limited range? He could really help Spurs interior defense. Drafting him could mean moving on from Poeltl and maybe move Zollins in the starting PF position.

Do you feel with his injury history that he will maintain the speed to play PF regularly.

[scott]

Only posting this to be able to come back and bump it in 4 years when this guy sucks.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Totally agree with this take. I picture him being used in a similar fashion to Evan Mobley next to Jarrett Allen. I don't even picture Holmgren at his peak being the best player on his NBA team, but more of a super glue guy.

LOL. Oh, so you're gonna be all reasonable, and we can't even argue or anything? Yeah, I'll buy all that. It's not that I hate Holmgren, I just get worn out with people who really believe he's going to be a 7' Magic Johnson and Shaq combined.

Then again, Ivey just got punked by St. Peters. Honestly, I think I do pretty good at finding draft bargains, but I'm glad I don't have to make the call for the #1 pick - especially this year.