Reed Sheppard - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[KobesAchilles]

Can he shoot? Can he do a pocket pass? Runs pick n roll at a high level? Can he throw a lob? Whomever answers yes to all of that is who I want to draft

[Mr. Body]

My completely irrelevant final decision is to take Dillingham over Sheppard. Dillingham seems like a creator in the half court, which is exactly what we need. His size will be an obvious flaw and his ceiling is limited by it, but with Wemby behind him and a supposedly GOAT coach, he's the one I'd roll the dice on for a PG-esque creator. Topic was my original pick, but I wouldn't risk anything on him now (in the lottery).

If Dillingham hits on offense -- and I don't mean learning Chris Paul level game management and manipulation, I mean the best Rob Dillingham possible...

The offense will be incredibly hard to handle. Wemby will occupy most of the defensive attention while you now have a significant self-creating, dynamic threat. Dillingham hit 54.5% on spot-up threes. He shot 47.7% on catch-and-shoot (moving into a pass and shooting). He's a good passer on the move, especially in spotting his big men as they roll.

If he's that good of a shooter, then teams will have to pay attention to him. If his quickness pays off, then defenses will have to be concerned with staying in front of him. This makes attending to Wembanyama harder. If Dillingham breaks a defense down and Wembanyama is near the basket, this is really problematic. Especially since Dillingham, in his best configuration, is an instant advantage creator.

So... potentially have two guys who are constantly creating advantages. One of them, the little guy, is potentially exceptional shooting but also putting the ball up for his center. He also tends to make snap decisions.

This puts Vassell in less of a need to self-create and more feast off advantages the others create. Attacking weak-sides, hitting pass-outs.

[z0sa]

If Dillingham hits on offense -- and I don't mean learning Chris Paul level game management and manipulation, I mean the best Rob Dillingham possible...

The offense will be incredibly hard to handle. Wemby will occupy most of the defensive attention while you now have a significant self-creating, dynamic threat. Dillingham hit 54.5% on spot-up threes. He shot 47.7% on catch-and-shoot (moving into a pass and shooting). He's a good passer on the move, especially in spotting his big men as they roll.

If he's that good of a shooter, then teams will have to pay attention to him. If his quickness pays off, then defenses will have to be concerned with staying in front of him. This makes attending to Wembanyama harder. If Dillingham breaks a defense down and Wembanyama is near the basket, this is really problematic. Especially since Dillingham, in his best configuration, is an instant advantage creator.

So... potentially have two guys who are constantly creating advantages. One of them, the little guy, is potentially exceptional shooting but also putting the ball up for his center. He also tends to make snap decisions.

This puts Vassell in less of a need to self-create and more feast off advantages the others create. Attacking weak-sides, hitting pass-outs.

This is exactly what we need, especially the bolded. I just worry he gets the bullied out of him on defense, especially if we become a play-in team or basketball gods forbid, a playoff one. But it is what it is. The regular season at least would be a lot more fun.

[Uriel]

Analytics models have listed this guy as the #1 prospect in the draft, and these analytics models have hit on Jokic, Haliburton, Sengun, etc. If he’s available at #4, shouldn’t he be the pick?

[SpursFan86]

Analytics models have listed this guy as the #1 prospect in the draft, and these analytics models have hit on Jokic, Haliburton, Sengun, etc. If he’s available at #4, shouldn’t he be the pick?

Castle vs. Sheppard is a very tough decision IMO. Would maybe lean Sheppard but I go back and forth on it.

[lefty20]

Analytics models have listed this guy as the #1 prospect in the draft, and these analytics models have hit on Jokic, Haliburton, Sengun, etc. If he’s available at #4, shouldn’t he be the pick?

Sounds like it's due for a miss. /s

He's the obvious choice at 4 for me as well. I just don't see him falling there, assuming Rockets keep their pick.

[Extra Stout]

Analytics models have listed this guy as the #1 prospect in the draft, and these analytics models have hit on Jokic, Haliburton, Sengun, etc. If he’s available at #4, shouldn’t he be the pick?

Yeah, so he’s a high-volume 51% three-point shooter who is also multi-skilled, but he’s kind of short! He’ll likely make at least 2000 three-pointers in his career, but is he a point-of-attack defender?

[onechance87]

Analytics models have listed this guy as the #1 prospect in the draft, and these analytics models have hit on Jokic, Haliburton, Sengun, etc. If he’s available at #4, shouldn’t he be the pick?

Would be a huge upgrade over branham.I would take at 4 if castle is gone.

[The Truth #6]

Dillingham improves the team, for sure. I guess the question is if the Spurs want to invest 3 years in developing any point guard or just want to find complementary players with upside and get a point guard through trade.

[drpill]

Dillingham improves the team, for sure. I guess the question is if the Spurs want to invest 3 years in developing any point guard or just want to find complementary players with upside and get a point guard through trade.

Why not both tbh.

[spurraider21]

Analytics models have listed this guy as the #1 prospect in the draft, and these analytics models have hit on Jokic, Haliburton, Sengun, etc. If he’s available at #4, shouldn’t he be the pick?

which model are you talking about, specifically?

[Uriel]

which model are you talking about, specifically?

Kevin Pelton.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...best-prospects

[rascal]

Castle vs. Sheppard is a very tough decision IMO. Would maybe lean Sheppard but I go back and forth on it.

Castle all the way

Castle has a more unique skill set

[PhantomDashCam]

Castle all the way

Castle has a more unique skill set

So a 6 ft 3 guard who averaged 2.5 steals, .7 blocks in 29 minutes per game, is an advanced stats darling, shooting dynamo, who also happens to be white, doesn’t have the more unique skill set?

This is no slight to Castle btw, who I like (and who may ultimately be the better Pro), but come on man. Reed is one of the more unique prospects we’ve ever seen.

[Anonymous Cowherd]

Reed vs Castle dilemma is a good issue to have given one of these is guaranteed available at 4 (unless one of Sarr and Risacher is, which is also just fine)

[heyheymymy]

Agreed, you're getting one of Sarr, Risacher, Castle or Sheppard and that kinda puts me at peace

[z0sa]

Castle all the way

Castle has a more unique skill set

The problem is Wemby getting the paint packed on him every possession because Sochan and Castle can't shoot. You're not making the play-in unless you can shoot it straight most nights.

I'd take Dillingham over Sheppard, and I'd take either over Castle at #4. Castle has a great skillset but he's not what we need right now for our guys to grow. Another season of opponents packing the paint on Wemby and I fear he'll be injured or just gassed all the time again, which leads to injury.

That said, if Castle could shoot outside at even a halfway decent clip (say 35%) by his sop re season, not picking him would have been a mistake. Tough, tough choices ahead.

[rascal]

The problem is Wemby getting the paint packed on him every possession because Sochan and Castle can't shoot. You're not making the play-in unless you can shoot it straight most nights.

I'd take Dillingham over Sheppard, and I'd take either over Castle at #4. Castle has a great skillset but he's not what we need right now for our guys to grow. Another season of opponents packing the paint on Wemby and I fear he'll be injured or just gassed all the time again, which leads to injury.

That said, if Castle could shoot outside at even a halfway decent clip (say 35%) by his sop re season, not picking him would have been a mistake. Tough, tough choices ahead.

Spurs aren't making the playoffs next year. Castle is the better player long term for team build.
Spurs still have a need to add a perimeter defender and this is the draft to do it as next year's draft is stacked to high offensive players.

[TD 21]

Spurs aren't making the playoffs next year. Castle is the better player long term for team build.
Spurs still have a need to add a perimeter defender and this is the draft to do it as next year's draft is stacked to high offensive players.

There is no more such thing as "defensive" and "offensive" players if you want to build a team that can succeed in the playoffs and eventually win a championship.

Tony Allen's and Andre Roberson's are extinct.

You're either competent at both or you're played off the floor.

[LeBowen]

There is no more such thing as "defensive" and "offensive" players if you want to build a team that can succeed in the playoffs and eventually win a championship.

Tony Allen's and Andre Roberson's are extinct.

You're either competent at both or you're played off the floor.

Exactly.
Then we think about if it's more likely for Sheppard to be a decent enough defender with his lack of size or Castle to become a solid enough shooter.

[Mr. Body]

There is no more such thing as "defensive" and "offensive" players if you want to build a team that can succeed in the playoffs and eventually win a championship.

Tony Allen's and Andre Roberson's are extinct.

You're either competent at both or you're played off the floor.

This has been disproven so many ing times it's getting annoying.

[TD 21]

This has been disproven so many ing times it's getting annoying.

You either don't watch much basketball or don't know what you're watching.

At that level, the only function these types can have on offense is essentially as a small ball big, where they're the roll man/play out of the dunker spot and that requires four out spacing and someone who can do a passable job masquerading as a center in terms of rim protection/defensive rebounding.

[baseline bum]

Reed vs Castle dilemma is a good issue to have given one of these is guaranteed available at 4 (unless one of Sarr and Risacher is, which is also just fine)

Yeah Castle and Sheppard are who I want at 4. Not sure which I'd pick if both are available. Leaning Castle but Reed should have a long and productive career also.

[baseline bum]

The problem is Wemby getting the paint packed on him every possession because Sochan and Castle can't shoot. You're not making the play-in unless you can shoot it straight most nights.

I'd take Dillingham over Sheppard, and I'd take either over Castle at #4. Castle has a great skillset but he's not what we need right now for our guys to grow. Another season of opponents packing the paint on Wemby and I fear he'll be injured or just gassed all the time again, which leads to injury.

That said, if Castle could shoot outside at even a halfway decent clip (say 35%) by his sop re season, not picking him would have been a mistake. Tough, tough choices ahead.

Castle to me is an upside swing with high motor and good work ethic, who will still probably be a very solid bench player in the worst case that he never develops a respectable three point shot. Though I'm going to bet on improvement from him. You always hope for a surer thing at #4 but not really happening this draft. Though I like Sheppard a lot here too since he should have a very respectable floor. Glad to be at #4 where the Spurs can get one of them instead of #7 where they'd get neither.

[fafo]

If both Castle and Sheppard are both available, I'm inclined to think that it's better to take Sheppard and see if Castle slides to 8. Sheppard has qualities that make it much easier for the teams 5-7 to draft him. Hoping Castle drops to 8 is also a long shot (I think Charlotte has the strongest odds of biting) but I think a worthy gamble.

I say this knowing that I go back and forth on Castle's shooting potential. If I was a stronger believer in his improvement there, I'd easily take him instead.