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Absolutely ridiculous what the NBA draft lottery does to the worst teams.
Depressing
Absolutely ridiculous what the NBA draft lottery does to the worst teams.
Yes, expected values calculate the mean, not the mode.
its gonna be a boon though for when the spurs don't tank, which could be next year.
Of course true, but also misleading. Yes, 6th is the "most likely" landing spot, but it is still nearly 3x more likely it will NOT be 6th and a 67% chance it will be higher than 6. For that reason, IMO, EV remains the best way of looking at it going in, especially since the Spurs have a >50% chance of exceeding EV.
I was thinking more about this the other day - it really is kind of stupid the way the lottery is set up. The 4 worst teams have diminishing outcome curves from 1-4, then pick 1-4 flatten for Team 5, and then they are increasing curves for everyone else. (Meaning, for the 4 worst teams, their best odds of a 1-4 pick are for pick 1, then the odds decrease as you move to pick 4. Team 5 has the same odds of picks 1-4, and then the rest of the teams their best odds of 1-4 are 4, and the odds diminish as you move to pick 1). I'm trying to understand the logic of why they did it this way as it creates more of an "all or nothing" scenario for the worst teams relative to the top 4 picks (though not relative to other teams).
We are talking about a relatively minute impact on the results, but still a real one... and I can't rationalize why the game was set up with this payout structure.
I think you're confusing expected and median value (for example, no. 9 has 80% chance of picking worse than expected value). But anyway I was refuting the notion that since the expected value is 4.1 you should focus on the 4th spot, when it isn't even the most likely spot should you make such a reductionist approach. For the record, I don't think the way of looking at it is being fixated on any one spot, simply being aware that it may come in any of a range and being prepared for ALL options. Since #1 is obvious and at least one player is bound to jump, putting together a non Wemby top 4/5 is likely all you need.
Last edited by Ariel; 05-01-2023 at 08:25 PM.
So no reason to pay particular attention to it.
I'm not confusing anything. Expected value is the same as mean value. EV is the simplest way of expressing the risk-adjusted result of a range of uncertain outcomes to anyone who understands it. Of course, the NBA lottery is a one-shot game, so the long-run average outcome bears no meaning - EV is just a way of expressing the sum of all of the probability of all the outcomes.
Yes, the 9 team has an 80% chance of finishing below EV, because that's how EV works. The 7th team has an EV of 6.4 despite the fact that they are barred from the 6th pick. That doesn't make EV any less insightful, especially when paired with the probability of the outcome being above or below the EV. "You have an EV of 13.7, but a 97.6% of finishing below EV" is a quite informative statement to someone who understands basic statistics and the game being played, even without knowing the specifics of the payout structure. It tells me that I have a very low chance of finishing with an outcome significantly higher than the most common outcome.
The median value is worthless and I don't care about it, because it is not adjusted for probability. The Spurs EV and their median value just happen to be the roughly the same because of the way the NBA built the odds (the same is true of teams 4 and 5).
Anyway, because this is a one shot game none of this matters, they'll just tell us on May 16 and this particular set of odds becomes irrelevant to anything ever again in the history of humankind.
I don't know enough about how NBA scouting works, but I'd presume that they'd scout every player they felt was a viable NBA player to some degree, since they'll eventually play against them or have an opportunity to sign them as free agents/trade for them?
tbh, this can be said of the entire odds table. The Spurs will pick somewhere 1-7. They have the highest odds possible for #1, 2, 3 and 4. Anything other than that, there is no real reason to pay attention to it. It's a one shot game with zero ability to influence the outcome. From here, just sit back and enjoy the bitter taste of disappointment come 5/16
Dariq Whitehead to undergo another foot surgery. His team claims he'll be ready for the regular season. Man, going from a top 10 lock pre-season to maybe sliding out of the 1st round?
I think some team will take him with a late FRP.
Interesting development. It will likely cost him to slip some more, I agree mid to late 20s sounds likely (rebuilding, small market teams with multiple late first like Indiana and Utah come to mind). Again, another guy who I'd like to take a flyer on, very good shooter but not limited to that, if healthy he's plenty athletic, he's got good positional size. The Spurs should do their due diligence on his health situation, but this looks like a potential high reward guy with a low pick, I'd definitely look to move up a few spots from 32/33 and grab him.
If this is true it will cost him going first round unless a team with multiple picks wants to take a chance on him. I never had him in the top ten or considered picking him because he was coming off a broken foot and I don’t want to waste a high pick with someone with foot issues. If he is going to have a second surgery on his foot I am sure that is a major red flag for a lot of teams as one of his main traits is being explosive ie. dunks, taking it hard to the rim, high flyer which creates more impact in his feet.
IND UTA and CHA all have those additional picks late first and as such might be ideal candidates to burn a pick for a swing on Dariq Whitehead. He could easily fall out of the first but there are a few late nets there that might catch him before doing so.
Man... multiple foot surgeries?
I'd be extremely wary.
Maybe worth the gamble if drafting Whitehead late.
Denver took a chance on Michael Porter Jr. and that's worked out well for them so sometimes you have to take a swing on the talent.
One interesting thing about dariq is that he kept shooting well from distance despite being injured all year
totally worth a late pick, still a top 5 talent imo
Last edited by duncan2150; 05-06-2023 at 06:00 PM.
Oh, definitely. But it can be argued both ways: if he was hampered with a lingering injury all along, then his production can be reasonably assumed to have suffered as a result. The key thing here is properly assessing his medical issue, and this is something the Spurs have done with great success recently with Zach Collins. In any case I'm not advising against caution (due diligence is definitely required), but if this causes a lottery talent to fall within reach (early second / late first), then it'd be foolish not to take a long, hard look at him. And if there's reason to believe he'll be back healthy, that's a gamble worth taking. That's what low firsts / early seconds are for.
I can agree. High risk, but potentially high reward.
Definitely. Charlotte seems to not like risks too much, but I'd bet good money he's going to Indy or Utah at worst, meaning a trade up would be required (even if for a few spots), and if some team in the mid 20s doesn't want to take on guaranteed salary, then 33 + 44 + maybe an extra second rounder or two might be enough.
Hendricks has no shot creation to speak of. The opposite of what the Spurs need right now tbh. If anyone watches this long vid (i encourage it), you’ll notice he barely has the ball in his hands and when he does, he only takes a one or two dribbles before shooting. The Spurs should have higher expectations from their top pick being a catch and shoot player. At least Jarace Walker has some semblance of a mid range game.
It would be terrible to draft the best shooting PF in the draft. Instead, let’s draft the one with the worst shooting signal of the four domestic PF prospects, because 3 point shooting doesn’t matter in the NBA.
You’re doing that thing again where you’re honing in on one aspect of a player than the player as a whole, and that IMO, is a mistake when you’re drafting this high. It’s important that the player selected this high has a roadmap to become a complete player vs one that’s harder to see get there. You don’t just gain dribbling skills or shot creating skills, that’s usually inherent. Yeah, you could come away with the “best” shooting PF (whose numbers aren’t even historical or significant enough that it’s comparable to past greats) but what else? It’s a bad draft philosophy to try to get a player who is unlikely to develop into much more than a catch and shoot player. You have to aim higher.
What the is the goal if all we’re aiming for are catch and shoot players when the Spurs just had a horrid season? That would be a disappointment to the fans and the Spurs are doing everything they can to appease the fans.
You honed in on one area of Hendricks’ game. Are you THAT self blind?
Here’s an exercise for you, DJ. Go to TaT and plug in the 4 big forwards into the player comparison page, Miller, Hendricks, Walker, Whitmore, and scroll over ALL of the stats, counting and advanced. Red dots mean the lowest value of the four, green dots are the highest.
Self creation involves many parts: dribbling, athleticism, ability to pull up off the dribble, ISO moves, basketball IQ to make reads when to make a pass or shoot.
Here’s typically the problem with your player assessment of draft prospects: you rely on numbers as your end-all, be-all source to dictate what you feel about players.
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