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What is it with you people?
Did I kill this thread with some facts or something?
Besides China buying more and more crude each year, the value of the dollar keeps dropping. These two factors raise the oil price for us dramatically.
Our cost of the Euro:
Now add seasonal usages, seasonal refinery mix changes, and world wide supply and demand economics.
It all makes sense when you see the whole picture. And no, Cheney and Exxon have nothing to do with the prices, but then simpleton's believe whatever their liberal masters tell them.
What is it with you people?
Did I kill this thread with some facts or something?
I read where the at least $35 in the rise of price of oil since dubya took office (it was about $25/barrel on 9/11) has been due to Iraq, removing Iraq's oil from market plus oil speculators playing games with the instabilities in the M/E.
The US will keep shipping its wealth to oil countries as long as the US does nothing to suppress the demand for oil. Taxing the price of gasoline/diesel up to European levels, and guaranteeing that the price will stay there, indexed to inflation, permitting alternatives to become viable, is my recommendation.
When president Bush took office, oil was just under $30 per barrel. Not $25. On 9/11, it can be said that president Bush helped reduce the prices. On 9/11, oil was about $25. It dropped down to $20 by the beginning of 2002. It rose to about $32 just before we invaded Iraq, then back down to $30. The beginning of 2004 is when China's demand for oil started rising dramatically. Oil took a steady increase to $72 in mid 2006, then a correction to $60 in the beginning of 2007, and is on a steady rise again since.
Consider the facts within this article:
China crude oil consumption to reach 500 mln tons by 2020 - CNPC. One paragraph:
Also consider this:By 2020, imports will increase to 300 mln tons, or 60 pct of China's total consumption, Zhu said.
Crude, refined oil consumption hits record in 1st half. One paragraph:
Also see this site:The net imports of crude oil over the same period hit 79.72 million tons, up 18.4 percent, while that for refined oil reached 10.14 million tons, down 15.7 percent, customs figures show.
[Light Crude Oil (CL, NYMEX)
Monthly Price Chart]
Last edited by Wild Cobra; 03-15-2008 at 05:05 PM.
pfffff........the real truth is that the Saudi oil fields are drying up, that why OPEC won't increase production - they have none left to spare....in fact, the U.S. has been secretly selling Iraqi oil on the markets since over-throwing Saddam to try and disguise the fact that the Saudi oil fields are in decline - a fact that would change global oil economics and throw the leading industrial countries into panic....
i'm in awe of how nbasham finds out so much secret information from his mothers basement
Yep, he's connect real good...
Sure, the media undercovers a black market for black gold from the region. Then all of a sudden, like everything else, it's our fault.
Evidence anyone?
Dan. I'm sick and tired of your propaganda. Fess up a valid source, or I will continue to call you a propagandist!
Why are you working for the enemies of the USA?
Don't repubs like a weak dollar??
I think there is a split among them. Personally, I see it as a good thing. I'm not sure where I would call the optimum point, but we may be close now.
Yes, I know. Gas prices will rise and so will other imported goods. This will bring good paying jobs back to the states. That is why I see it as a good thing.
Many don't like it because they are invested elsewhere. Now their manufactured products are selling for less profit shipping them here.
Many don't like it because the BMW's Ferrari's, overseas vacation homes, etc. are costing them more.
Many don't like it because a strong dollar is a sign of national strength.
Because of "favored nation" status in trade, we have exported so much of our industries. This is why the dollar has weakened.
Want to blame someone... blame those who favor all the enacted free trade agreements.
Iraq was under sanctions. Started with Clinton. Oil for food. Remember ?
"Iraq was under sanctions."
and?
Price of oil, the most widely traded commodity, is manipulated by a few players. Obviously, Bush has something to do with it, because he wants to help his rich Texan friends.
Market demand and supply have nothing to do with its price.
Really, want to expand on that statement and talk to the
Texas Railroad commission about that. They could
maybe just be called the first OPEC, Texas style. As
a matter of fact oil used to be priced on the basis of
West Texas Sweet Crude.
I will give you the benefit of doubt in one regard, the
futures market of late has been playing a big part in
the run up of oil, but OPEC and Market do play their
part also.
Psssttt . . . ray!
I was being sarcastic . . .
Iraq's oil production, by month, since 1973.
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/doeme/paprpiq
Can't believe I wasted all those years and money going to college only to find out it was all bull .
All I know is the times of cheap gas are over. Once oil companies know they can get $3 a gal. why would they want to lower the price?
You're welcome.@ the le of this thread now.
I have this thread "saved" and will keep resurrecting it. Until I die or the servers die.
As I said before, the market has moved on and we will never see another $50 barrel of oil in our lifetime.
It seems that some of the recent run up has been speculative, and you can expect that to fall back at some point, but the basic "floor" for oil is, if memory serves, about $80 bucks or so, so don't expect any real relief if that happens.
Oil will go up and down, but I think the price of a barrel will double within about 8 to 10 years, and more quickly after that, as the price increases accelerate.
Remember that for every barrel of oil, there are increasing amounts of consumers in the West and Asia that are demanding it.
China adds something like new 10,000 drivers EVERY DAY, and their demand for chemicals and plastics, both made from oil, is going up just as fast.
Demand is going up fast, and supply is not keeping pace. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure where the price will go.
The only real question is:
How fast?
Remember doubling in 9 years is just 8% price growth, and that seems to be sustainable, given current supply/demand trends.
If price growth accelarates from there, as most seem to think it will, you could see $21+ gallon of gas within 20 years. (figure price growth of 8% for 9 years, 11% for 7 years, 15% for 4 years)
I am not trying to be alarmist, merely realistic.
We WILL change our transportation habits, one way or another.
My bet is on mass transit, as that is the most energy-efficient way to go. That will also make for MUCH denser cities. I wouldn't buy real estate in the burbs...
Until all the defenders of the earth are beaten be prepared to
pay through the nose for all energy. I don't care if it is oil, gas,
electricity and even water. Control my friends is the name of
the game and they, the environmentalist, are in the drivers seat.
I have said it before and will keep repeating it. Whenever
you hear someone say "conserve" or "we must protect the
environment" hang on to your pocketbook,
cause it is going to cost you bigtime. That is a fact, like it or
not.
While I agree some of that is true it is not the only reason gas prices are going up. I'm no economic expert but I've been watching the economic shows and networks and most say it is NOT because of a shortage of oil that the prices are so high. The weak dollar has a lot to do with it.
I have to watch more Erin Burnett.
The weaker dollar has a lot to do with it. But that was not
what started the ball rolling. It is what caused much of
the weaker dollar. Environmental wackos have distorted the
market so much it is unreal. And you always have those
that will take advantage of a skewed market.
Until the market is allowed to correct itself, in a normal
manner, just as in the housing markets or any markets,
you are going to have some outrages outcomes.
Look at how ethanol has skewed food prices.
What will you start thinking when the Evengelical movement really starts taking up the environmentalist cause?
Blaming the "environmentalists" for all the run up in energy prices is simply not accurate. Ask any freakin' CEO of an oil company, and they will tell you as much.
But I guess Rush Limbaugh knows more about those things than the CEO of Exxon, right?
Pfft.
There is a growing movement among many ferverent Evangelicals to view taking care of the environment as something of a duty from God.
I think if that trend continues, you will become something of a minority in conservative circles.
As I have said before, bearing in mind the consequences of industry and pollution of various sorts make huge economic and ETHICAL sense.
Quite honestly, I find your total disregard for the environment rather unethical.
That it seems to be a sentiment echoed by many on the right is simply another aspect of what I feel is the moral bankruptcy of the modern conservative movement.
Corn-based ethanol is much less effecient than many other kinds of ethanol.
Ask any environmentalist, and they will agree.
The US Government subsidizes corn for ethanol, and puts protective tariffs on Brazilian ethanol, making it far more expensive than it needs to be.
Most environmentalists would much rather something like switchgrass or similar be used.
Further,
There is some evidence to suggest that ethanol production actually produces more carbon emissions that it prevents.
You will probably see many environmentalists rethink their support for it.
Is that all? By then, a loaf of bread will cost $2,000,000, so gas will be super cheap!
Greenspan seems to think interest rates will have to be higher than they have been historically to hold inflation in check, and I tend to agree.
In the same time period, if everything else rises at the historic average of about 3% or so, a dollar loaf of bread will cost $1.81 in 20 years, and 81% gain, whereas a gallon of gas in the preceding scenario would end up having something like a 700% overall increase.
This is just a "back of the envelope" calculation, but I think the underlying pricnciple will hold.
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