I'm not at all sure that Jerret is a better defender than Kelly -
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...s-defense-most .
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...ht-foot-injury Note the sidebar opponents shooting 22% against Kelly, 3ed in the country in points allowed per play
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...nst-louisville
IIRC the only games Duke lost this year, all happened when Kelly was out.
http://charlotte.cbslocal.com/2013/0...th-ryan-kelly/
Meanwhile DX says this about Jerret's defence:
With regards to Bullock, there is simply not a chance in he can hold Bruce Bowen's jockstrap defensively. He is also not a need: we have a quality SF - Kawhi. You are proposing drafting a low trade value role-player, in the least valuable of the positions (Big > PG > Wing), where we have no need, and we can't be confident that he's even the best player available...
Last edited by pad300; 05-24-2013 at 07:41 PM.
I brought it forward and made Bruno's and Chinook's corrections:
Can be traded on draft night: Parker, Duncan (can reject trade with no trade clause), Bonner, Green, Leonard, De Colo, Joseph, Baynes, and players whose rights the Spurs hold
Can be traded on draft night if they pick up their player option before the draft: Diaw, Mills
Cannot be traded on draft night: Ginobili, Splitter, Blair, Neal, McGrady
See why would Washington trade up. Porter who fits their needs is a better player than Nerlens Noel is. In fact, I believe Bennett, Oladipo, McLemore, Burke are all better players than he is. Noel has bust written all over him. Take into consideration that he weighed in at a laughable 206 lbs at the combine and he's not even a dominant rebounder. He has Kwame Brown written all over him. May be a nice kid, but come on.
From APBR
So, there is some value in combine stats for prediction, but mostly they don't effect anything. So being a freak athlete doesn't matter for DJ Stephens, but it does for Noel(assuming as he didn't test)/Zeller.What combine stats did you find have a positive correlation to success?
When I was including them alongside the boxscore statistics, no step vertical and standing reach were the only predictors worth including.
Now that I tried applying combine stats post-hoc for the newer data (including it in a regression along with the predictions posted in the parent post such that -- [Observed Wins ~ Predicted Wins + No step vert + Standing reach] I found some interesting things:
1) Standing reach is now a negative. What that tells me is that while standing reach is obviously important to playing basketball, if you can't use it to record rebounds/blocks/points... in college, you won't figure out how to use it in the pros and some of the stats you got just by being bigger than anyone else will be tougher to come by.
2) No step vert is still informative, but the effect was really weak until I included an interaction term between predicted wins and no step vert. Basically, if you don't look like a good prospect based on the box score stats it doesn't matter how high you can jump. However, as your expected production increases, being able to jump out the building becomes an increasingly important predictor of your ceiling.
I'm all about Nogueira, Tim Hardaway Jr. (love his game), C.J. Leslie, Dario Saric (if he falls), Jamal Franklin, Deshaun Thomas and others.
If I'm Cleveland I'm trading the 1st pick. The problem I think is finding a team that really wants him and is willing to trade.
This can only be done with either the Magic, Wizards, Bobcats and maybe the Suns, so that Cleveland can get a good pick in return a player.
Dont know what players these team have that can be of value for Cleveland.
You can add to that list; Giannis Adetokunbo, Archie Goodwin, Sergey Karsev, and Mike Muscall..DE/DN
I guess from the Spurs point of view is any of these players better then Neal, and Blair? Also are they better then our foreign draft picks..Bertrans, Hanga, Ryan?
1.Giannis Adetokunbo
2. Archie Goodwin
3. Lucas Nogueira
in order have probably the best potential out of all the players that could be at 28.
I hope SPURS draft Goodwin or Franklin to fill the SG gap and fill the backup SF by signing players like Nocinoi. Spurs needs an athletic SG with quick first step, long wingspan and being able to change speed to break down defense and draw fouls. SPURS probably could trade De Colo to trade up to get such player.
wishlist: Lucas Nogueira, Sergey Karasev, Mam Jaiteh, Gorgui Dieng, Livio Jean-Charles, Dario Saric
I wouldn't take Kelly Olynyk even if he fell to 58
In terms of who makes the most sense for the Spurs to pick up - one only need to look 3-5 years into the future and speculate about the iden y of the team at that time.
Right now, the Spurs are, obviously, two teams: one w/ Parker on the floor, the other without him. W/ him, they're a a pick and roll/pop team where Tony creates off the dribble and either hits Tiago or Tim on the roll after the pick, hit one of the shooters (Kawhi, Green, etc.) on the perimeter or drive and either finish at the rim or hit a mid-range.
With him off the floor, the offense is primarily a ball movement offense that does contain some pick and roll. Ginobili (if he's in when Tony's out) is the new creator. If he's out, then whoever is on the floor is essentially running the standard play (baseline cut off the single or double screen) to get the best shot - usually a 3 - available.
Well, 3-5 years from now when Tony is 34-37 years old, he won't be able to create in the same fashion (mostly due to speed). He'll be smarter but slower - so the creation will most likely include more passing to shooters. Also, Kawhi should have emerged by then as a greater force in the league and could supplant Tony as the feature of the offense. Lastly, Timmy will be gone and there needs to be someone who can score more effectively than Tiago down low (perhaps a FA pickup of some sort).
Again, from APBR stats board Draft projection thread (http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.ph...=8242******=15)
The methodology is on that thread, and will get constantly updated over the next month. The big takeaway for me is that Mike Muscala is probably a really good option at 28.
I have been very impressed with Reggie Bullock. While Bullock and Green cab both play good D and both can shoot the 3, that's where the similarities end. Bullock is faster, stronger, an inch taller and is quite a bit meatier. And unlike Green, Bullock is a good ball handler and can score at spots on the floor that are not just behind the arc.
At 6'7" Bullock could even play some SF.
I do NOT project him as a "Danny Green" type. Rather, I project him as better than Danny at pretty much every turn.
1) at 21 years old Bruce Bowen wasn't a lock down/all NBA defender either.
2) Bullock is faster, stronger and better dribbler/penetrator than Danny Green. At only 1" taller than Green, why would you even begin to assume that he's a Small Forward? The fact is Green doesn't really have 2 guard skills (on offense).
3) since neither Green nor Leonard are great (or even adequate) or consistent at dribble penetration, and since Bullock appears to be qualified to do so....at both positions....., where is the downside?
^Paranoid_Pop, is that you?
I like Muscala a lot too. Every advanced stat points to him being a very great college player and indicates that he would be an outstanding pro. I think the Spurs should take him even if Withey is still on the board.
Bullock is the quintessential Spurs wing player. He may not be a lockdown defender at 21 but who is? He will be a welcome backup to Kawhi at the 3 and Green at the 2.
Who knows what the Spurs are going to do in the first round but am starting to like Archie Goodwin/SG - I would though love for the Spurs to get a extra second round pick maybe trade De Colo and pick up Rodney Williams 6'7SF Minnesota and Augusto Lima 6'9 PF Brazil.
Lucas Nogueira, Mike Muscala, Tony Mitc , Jamal Franklin, with guys like Archie Goodwin, Bullock, etc being looked at. Someone like Mitc or Muscala depending on where they fall in the twenties could easily replace Blair. Franklin and Bullock to replace Neal I suppose. I really like Franklin/Mithcell/Nogueira.
Some recent opinions about Euro players Abrines, Todorovic, Nedovic, Jean Charles
http://www.thedreamshake.com/2013/5/...-international
Spurs have worked out Reggie Bullock, Tim Hardaway Jr and James Southerland so far.
Kind of telling... Each are SFs.
southerland would be pretty good. long hands and good wingspan, good lane agility time. been playing well for a coach boehiem.
Chris Mannix @ChrisMannixSI1m
Mavericks continuing to shop the No. 13 pick to preserve cap space for this summer. Several execs say they are not asking for much, either
Which is better:
Houston Trade - Bonner for Robinson + Houston's 2nd
Dallas Trade - Bonner + Decolo/Neal for Dallas's 13th + 2nd
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