Rita and Corpus Christi

[travis2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 201746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/17:30:30Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
081 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2911 m
D. 65 kt
E. 121 deg 009 nm
F. 215 deg 075 kt
G. 126 deg 014 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 9 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E240/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 30
MAX FL WIND 85 KT W QUAD 16:46:40 Z
RAGGED EYE

The eye is still open to the north west, but the pressure is falling quite fast now and the winds are up to 85 kts in the western quadrant which isn't the strongest.

Yeah, that's the same opening that is to the north in the 1810L picture...

[travis2]

Any updated predictions on Gulf landfall? Or are they maintaining where they were?

And where are you looking for this stuff?

Landfall predictions are still really iffy. The continued westward path is pretty reasonable right now...but (as was mentioned earlier) even a few hours difference one way or the other in when Rita turns north will make a BIG difference as to where it hits.

Really won't be able to narrow it down until (I'd say) Thursday or so...

EDIT: Oh yeah, you can get to the Hurricane Center website from www.weather.gov...

Also, the stuff is repeated at the NWS Key West website...http://www.srh.weather.gov/eyw/HTML/TD18.html

[MannyIsGod]

Some of the idiots on Master's blog.

The next model runs should be in later this afternoon. But I don't expect many more shifts. What you see is what you get from this point out, and Texas is getting hit one way or another.

[MannyIsGod]

Landfall predictions are still really iffy. The continued westward path is pretty reasonable right now...but (as was mentioned earlier) even a few hours difference one way or the other in when Rita turns north will make a BIG difference as to where it hits.

Really won't be able to narrow it down until (I'd say) Thursday or so...

I don't know, the last 24 hours they've had up planes sampling the atmosphere and gathering all kinds of data. This whole season when they run the upper air flights and get a load of data, the models usually respond with a huge increase in accuracy. I don't expect much deviation from this point on.

But of course, withthe shape of the Texas coast and the angles involved, the speed of the turn as well as the exact timing play such a huge role so you're probably right. I think the lower coast is pretty safe from a direct hit unless the trof comes in way late.

[Ginofan]

Some of the idiots on Master's blog.

At least some of them are a bit entertaining!

[MannyIsGod]

That eye just sucks.

[travis2]

That eye just sucks.

well, it's got a few days to get it's act together...

[SpursWoman]

Why would you want it to get it's act together? Don't they get stronger with a cleaner eye?

[travis2]

Why would you want it to get it's act together? Don't they get stronger with a cleaner eye?

I didn't say I wanted it to get its act together...just that it had a few days to do so.

And yeah...if it cleans up it can get stronger...

[Shelly]

Manny

Have you ever read this book?

They have it at the library. Pretty interesting on how the channel came about.

[Marcus Bryant]

How many bad jokes are we going to be subjected to by media types, friends, neighbors, complete strangers and our dogs since the name of a hurricane is "Rita"?

That alone is worth an extra 0.5 on Rita's hurricane category.

[MannyIsGod]

Hey, thats neat S y. I'll have to read that after I finish what I'm reading now. Thanks.

[Vashner]

Would be fun to like rent out an C130 to fly into it and have a party...

[SWC Bonfire]

Models seem to be shifting back east.

[Vashner]

I am calling Corpus area to get hit...
I was on the phone with a relative they are going down to put plywood on the Port A vacation home.

[Shelly]

Hey, thats neat S y. I'll have to read that after I finish what I'm reading now. Thanks.

I meant to tell you that my youngest is also facinated with TWC.

[MannyIsGod]

Well, the BAMM is for this type of storm, but the others are all pretty good models. At the angle it is coming in, the slightest change could move it 100 miles on the coast!

[easjer]

So can the weather gurus tell me something else? If it hits south of Houston, would we be on the dry side or the nasty rain band and tornadoes side? I'm guessing the nasty side, but the last time something hit Palacios, everyone freaked out about flooding and we got sprinkles.




* * * * *

I realize the greatest primary danger is the winds and broken objects, followed afterwards by flooding, contaminated water, etc.

I'm worried about a couple of things if we stay - one, being trapped in Houston, when we have to drive out mid week (next week) for our wedding in New Braunfels that weekend. And being concerned about no power and not being able to eat or drink.

But if we leave, I'm concerned about possible looting and the damage that might occur to our apartment in our absence. We don't have much, and much is replaceable, but it's worrisome.

Of course we'll leave if it's mandatory, but if it's not?

[Extra Stout]

How many bad jokes are we going to be subjected to by media types, friends, neighbors, complete strangers and our dogs since the name of a hurricane is "Rita"?

That alone is worth an extra 0.5 on Rita's hurricane category.

My chief worry is that every single Tex-Mex restaurant in the world will introduce a drink called the "Hurricane 'Rita."

[Vashner]

New Braunfels will be a lot safer than Houston..

But there is a 50% of heavy rain I would guess ...

[easjer]

See if it's just rain bands, well, we're not leaving for that. It'll flood, but we're so dry that once the storm surge subsides, the drainage will happen fairly quickly if we don't take a direct hit.

But I dont' want to around with hurricane force winds and tornadoes scare the out of me.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Just got word that the A&M/State game may be moved to Thursday evening. Should know more by this time tomorrow.

[Vashner]

Just get out now and don't wait for the lines of stuck traffic...

[2pac]

The east side is the nasty side. Looks like Houston get hit with it.

Hope the Astrodome doesnt flood.

[easjer]

Can't just leave, unfortunately. Don't have the vacation time, and J can't miss that much class. If the university closes, I'll likely still get paid and won't need the vacation time, and he can miss class.

- we're supposed to go get our marriage license Thursday morning. . . can we get it outside Harris Co if we have to evacuate???