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Black is a Spurtalk favorite and he can't shoot either.
I don't think Anthony Black will be availalbe at 11. I really don't think he lasts past Washington (8) or Utah (9). Both teams badly need point guards. Their fan bases seem to support this (if disagree about the targets).
If Orlando keeps that pick, and I think they will, Gradey is likely to be there and they should take him without hesitation. He's exactly right for their needs.
I do think there are teams that might trade a pick out of the round, but not sure Orlando is one of them.
That said, if I can get Anthony Black for those two picks next year, I do it without hesitation. I'll throw in the 33 this year without thinking.
Black is a Spurtalk favorite and he can't shoot either.
There is more value in current known picks than unknown picks with protections.
Char may not even convey and that Toronto pick might end up in the 20s in a weaker draft class next year.
Land any of Jordan Hawkins, Rayan Rupert, or Cason Wallace and I’m happy! Waited so long for the draft lottery now it feels like forever until draft night.
The way Hawkins moves offball is incredible. If everything is smokescreen, then I hope Hawkins is the guy behind the smoke.
He is the best shooter in this class
In years tbh
Have not seen a player know how to navigate around screens like that since Ray Allen. He does not stop running around.
Yes, Spurs need a shooter.
Hit big shots in the championship run so good under pressure.
Just gaming out top picks. I'm glad we don't have to worry about this part of the draft. I actually feel fairly confident about most of these picks right now (barring trades):
SAS - Victor Wembanyama
CHA - Scoot Henderson
POR - Brandon Miller
HOU - Amen Thompson
DET - Cam Whitmore
ORL - Taylor Hendricks
IND - Jarace Walker
I feel like Charlotte not taking Scoot is a complete feint they aren't taking seriously. Portland may ultimately trade that pick elsewhere. If they keep it, finally some scoring from a non-guard position.
Houston picking Amen seems so obvious I start wondering if it's not. Looking through Detroit boards and needs, Whitmore seems really obvious there. The Orlando spot is not the clearest. Looking through Orlando spaces, they like Hendricks most of their options. Like Houston, Indiana picking Jarace Walker seems very obvious.
After this, we have Washington and Utah, with Ausar Thompson, Cason Wallace, Anthony Black still available. I feel like Washington would take Ausar. I think Utah would take Black, but Wallace may be just as good an option and seems like an Ainge pick.
Dallas would have the option to trade out or pick the leftover. I don't think anyone still available is great for them. I'm going to say it's Black/Wallace and traded. They might take Gradey and keep him. Maybe Dereck Lively?
Orlando seems to absolutely take Gradey if he's available.
After this, for s n giggles, things get more uncertain.
OKC fans seem convinced they're taking Leonard Miller.
Toronto fans really like Keyonte George, but there's variance here.
NOP is a complete question mark. That team has more uncertainty than they'd like. Some want to trade it. Maybe Jordan Hawkins or Dariq Whitehead...
Then things get wild, like usual. It feels like there are more 'set' picks and needs in the lottery this year over last year. Later picks, I like the Lakers taking Nick Smith, actually, and then GSW maybe trading out. Brooklyn, a little later, will grab better players than most players around them and take like Kobe Bufkin and Coulibaly.
that sounds like a good fit with Sochan distributing the ball at the top of the key kinda like the Warriors do with Draymond. I gotta watch some tape on him
My ears are perked.
Don’t hate - bitcoin pays for my ticket give aways and charity
Gradey rates as a better shooter to me than Hawkins in this draft. Surprisingly, Malaki had a better 3pt percentage than both of them last year, but obviously he shot fewer and only in certain cir stances. Hawkins is constantly cycling and shoots a ton from deep.
Branham is the much worse defender. Hawkins actually is pretty good defensively. Where Branham gets him is Hawkins is not good handling the ball and a pretty bad passer. They both have issues producing other than scoring.
Yeah, CHA + TOR + one more that could either be CHI or a SA lotto protected is probably more market price if you look at the OKC trade last year.
Would have to be on the clock with the Spurs target sitting there though. Can’t do that deal in advance.
Im not doing 3 picks. The fact that TOR pick could be better should be enough alongside another first IMO….I mean I wont cry if SA loves someone enough to do it, but that’s too much IMO.
I really like Cason (I’m just assuming Black will be gone by 10+)
Toronto + Charlotte + Chicago / SA (even if protected) is just crazy, probably 2 of those picks convey as high as 11 or even higher (Toronto + Chicago/SA), and the other has improved its chances significantly. No one in that range is worth that much, at that price I'd rather stand pat and wait for another opportunity.
I get your logic, but “might be” up to 4 picks better, a year later, might be enough of a time value premium on its own but thats before factoring for risk adjustment and the strength of draft class evaluation. The CHA pick helps, but still don’t think it’s enough if you balance out all the odds. There are some decent draft pick trade value models out there, but none really address the time value of picks (a pick today is worth generally worth more than the same pick in the future - the only exception would likely be when accounting for draft class strength and generational talents at the very top end of the draft. For picks in the middle of the round, it would be highly unlikely for class strength factor to be stronger than time value). Same concept as the time value of money.
The strength of draft class one year ahead is complete BS, you can only spot a Wemby or a Banchero that far ahead, and those are not the guys at #11. Black, Hendricks, Cason Wallace, those guys were in no one's radar one year ago. The fallacy is believing you're trading future uncertainty for present certainty, when in fact you're only trading 3 shots for 1, none of which guarantee anything.
The value of picks in time depends on the team in question, for some team that's overloaded with picks or burdened cap wise, a future pick may be worth more than a present one. It's largely contingent on the case, and if you can't find a fair trading partner you're better served doing nothing.
I also wouldn’t do it - but that is the last market data we have. The fact that Toronto’s pick “might” be up to 4 slots better in the future does not equate the picks alone.
Maybe ORL does it for just TOR and CHA, but I wouldn’t if I were in their shoes.
Yeah, that’s exactly what I just said.
“the only exception would likely be when accounting for draft class strength and generational talents at the very top end of the draft. For picks in the middle of the round, it would be highly unlikely for class strength factor to be stronger than time value”
I’d do 3 picks for #6, but not for#11. Just because OKC was brain dead last year, and traded 3 picks for one outside of the top 10 doesn’t mean we have to follow suit.
The practical example of this… if you have the number 1 pick and the top talent is Anthony Bennett, but you know next year has Lebrun or Wemby… you might be willing to trade the 100% sure thing #1 pick at what you feel is a decent shot at #1 next year (the flattened lotto odds have made this tougher… but the disparity in talent between an Anthony Bennett and a Lebron might make you willing to take a 14% shot).
The opposite is also true. There is no way in you are going to trade a 100% sure thing at Wemby even if you were somehow guaranteed the #1 pick in the following 3 years.
However, this effect can really only be taken into account at the very top end of the draft. It is next to impossible to know a year out the strength of the next year’s class in the middle of the round short of some scenario where all the talent is holding out of this year’s draft because of some weird CBA hiccup that drains all the talent out of one draft (which, to my knowledge has never happened and likely never would).
Like I said, I wouldn’t do it either, especially since our ST targets are all likely depleted at 11. But I don’t think ORL is doing it for CHA and TOR. But… they might! Would be ecstatic if that happened.
We have our two shooting guards already right? Hawkins would be dope but how does he get to see time on the court…
By shooting the ball better than the current players.
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