*~* Trump Stock Market / Economy Crash Watch *~*

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

forum inflation hawks nowhere to be seen

The Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation came in under estimates but still hit multiyear highs last month, showing a continued pinch on consumers and likely keeping America’s central bank on the monetary policy sidelines.


The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4% month-over-month in April, which was below Dow Jones-surveyed economists’ estimates for 0.5% PCE growth. The year-over-year rate of 3.8% was in line with estimates.

https://youngandtheinvested.com/apri...pce-inflation/

[Blake]

Yeah I've noticed the price going up and the quality going down

[Blake]

forum inflation hawks nowhere to be seen

https://youngandtheinvested.com/apri...pce-inflation/

TSA DOING BETTER THAN EVER

* from Korea

[Winehole23]

“there have been 17 ‘sell signals’ since ’02, average loss for global stocks over 2-3 months is 2-3% (hit ratio of ~60%), with max drawdowns of 15-20%;”

[Winehole23]

regular folks tired of a rigged system

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/t...r-pay-ea4c75bc

[Winehole23]

1Q GDP revised down to +1.6 from 2.0

[Winehole23]

“.. Even if the conflict were to be resolved today,” he said, effects would hit the food system “well into late summer and the fall,” or even 2027 ..

[Winehole23]

More people in the United States are going hungry now than did during the depths of the pandemic six years ago, according to a new survey from the New York Federal Reserve Bank.


The New York Fed periodically asks Americans if they're having to skip meals, rely on food donations, or receiving federal assistance to buy groceries.


Results from the most recent survey in February show higher levels of food insecurity now than during the summer of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic triggered double-digit unemployment.

[velik_m]

The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000

The S&P 500 closed at a record on the last trading day of May, but only a handful of stocks — focused mostly in the AI area — hit their own all-time highs.

This strange occurrence echoes what happened at the top of dot-com bubble 26 years ago.

On Friday, just 20 of the index members hit a record. Of those 20, just seven were not directly related to artificial intelligence.

Michael Hartnett at Bank of America pointed out in a note to end last week that it was just 20 stocks that hit new highs at the very top of the internet bubble in March 2000.

While the widely followed strategist said the “speculative price action” is likely not over yet, this occurrence is the latest sign that it is nearing. Hartnett believes central banks and rising interest rates will ultimately spell the end, giving clients a “post-bubble” road map.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-...p-in-2000.html

[Winehole23]

GOLDMAN: “.. higher energy prices will continue to erode household spending power for the rest of the year, and we forecast only 0.9% real income growth in 2026 ..

“.. we expect consumer spending growth to decelerate to 1.3% for the remainder of the year, below .. our estimate of potential growth.”

[Winehole23]

jobs market heating up just as the world approaches the energy cliff

Non-farm payrolls +172k vs +88k exp/+115k prev
Pvt payrolls +120k vs +89k exp/+123k prev
Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% exp/4.3% prev
Avg hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.3% MoM est/+0.2% prev

[Winehole23]

interesting full/part-time mix

[Winehole23]

otherwise a very favorable trend politically, hard to see how Trump pulls out of his tailspin

starting a stupid war and precipitating a global energy shock was stupid, but Trump was cratering out well before that

historically unpopular president and policies

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

USD is ripping

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn it was ugly today.

[Winehole23]

S&P down nearly 3%

Nasdaq down 4.8%

[ChumpDumper]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

[Winehole23]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

Google and Open AI seeking new funding does not inspire confidence, but today seemed like it was more about interest rate outlook and a hotter than expected jobs report, plus garden variety profit taking

[Winehole23]

(I would imagine some traders can hear oil executives warning that the supply cliff and price es are a few weeks away)

[Winehole23]

“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Cahillane said in a recent interview (1). “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings.”

The company behind brands like Heinz, Kraft and Philadelphia is now cutting prices (2) on some products that had grown too expensive, increasing promotions and rolling out smaller package sizes at lower price points.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/ar...113500450.html

[velik_m]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

Doubtful, the returns don't matter for stock market anymore. All it matters is belief that stock price will go up and other people will buy it. This dip could also be unloading stocks to get capital for these mega IPOs. This was a fear that these mega IPOs will suck out investment money from the market.

But yesterday, at our company's monthly IT meeting, they did say they are setting up our own AI server with open models citing rising subscription costs. So at least their customers are starting to look at ROI.

[Blake]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

I'm gonna guess at some point it'll be government contracts that bail them out

[Winehole23]

challenging environment for small businesses

• In May, job openings and hiring plans fell notably to the lowest levels in six years. Twenty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• A seasonally adjusted net 9% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 4 points from April, also marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• In May, 13% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since December 2016.
• Fourteen percent of business owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem, up 5 points from April and the highest reading in the survey’s history.
• Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point from April and the lowest level since March 2009.
• Reports of supply chain disruptions picked up in May, with a shift from those reporting no disruptions to those reporting mild or moderate disruptions. Seventy percent of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, up 6 points from April.
• In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up 7 points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022.
• Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem,up 2 points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024. Inflation ranks as the second top problem.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/small...-in-six-years/