Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

the regional war is still hot



https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20...t-state-media/

[Winehole23]

notably absent from recent multilateral security talks in the Persian Gulf -- the USA

An Iraqi security delegation has arrived in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, to conduct high-level talks on regional security and shared strategic interests, according to the official Iraqi News Agency.


The visit comes a week after Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said that Baghdad will not allow its territory to be used for actions targeting other countries. Iran-aligned armed groups have repeatedly launched drone and missile attacks targeting Saudi Arabia during the US-Israel war on Iran.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveb...hormuz-control

[Winehole23]

US credibility to provide regional security appears to be completely shot in just six months

Saudis are already hedging their bets on Trump

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye will establish a joint political and military mechanism under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7, according to the Turkish Defence Ministry.

At a weekly news briefing in Ankara, the ministry said the alliance would also deepen cooperation across defence industries.
These new frameworks are to bring together the defence ministers, foreign ministers and military chiefs of the three countries.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveb...hormuz-control

[Winehole23]

Gaza-fication of South Lebanon continues

Israeli forces have carried out operations to blow up and burn homes in the southern Lebanese towns of Majdal Zoun and Al-Mansouri, as well as in neighbouring valleys, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reports.


NNA also reported that Israeli warplanes targeted the town of Al-Mansouri in two successive waves overnight, with the sound of explosions heard in Tyre.


The Israeli military issued a forced evacuation order for the town of Al-Mansouri last week, its first displacement directive in weeks.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveb...hormuz-control

[Winehole23]

scoreboard don't lie

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EKWUEME: “.. They will manipulate oil prices down until the SPR runs dry. .. See the blue horizontal line at the bottom of the chart? That's the physical market. Everything else is paper.”

blue global demand line looks flat because the y-axis -- paper oil -- is so extreme

[Winehole23]

escalation trap

US CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper tells senior IDF officials the US may have no choice but to resume fighting and would need Israel for joint strikes - Israel's Channel 13

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according to US officials, Israeli officials are lying about US officials

Captain Tim Hawkins, spokesperson for U.S. Central Command said that reports that Admiral Cooper said during his visit to Israel that he is pushing for renewed strikes and a resumption of the conflict against Iran is "an outright fabrication. It's not true at all".-JPost

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seen in GA

[Winehole23]

logistics prefigure lethality

Iranian strikes that heavily damaged Naval Support Activity Bahrain forced the United States Navy to relocate its principal regional logistics hub to Diego Garcia, transforming a comparatively short Gulf sustainment network into a vulnerable 2,200-mile maritime supply chain.

The wartime pivot preserved American carrier operations and the naval blockade of Iranian ports, but reported shortages aboard USS Abraham Lincoln demonstrate how destroying shore infrastructure can progressively degrade combat endurance without directly striking a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

By mid-August 2026, the Nimitz-class carrier had approached nine months on deployment, including more than 200 days without unrestricted liberty, while approximately 5,000 sailors and Marines sustained combat missions under reportedly exhausting operational and habitability conditions.

The carrier’s difficulties expose a central vulnerability in expeditionary warfare: nuclear propulsion provides exceptional ship endurance, yet aircraft sorties, escorts, weapons, aviation fuel, spare parts, food, sanitation supplies and crew resilience remain dependent upon functioning logistics architecture.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/i...-diego-garcia/

[Winehole23]

Yemen’s ⁠Mocha port has suspended commercial and ⁠maritime operations ⁠after being hit by more than 25 missiles #in Houthi attacks over recent days, the port’s director has said, according to Reuters.

The attacks ⁠killed seven people and ⁠caused an ⁠estimated $16m ⁠in losses, the director told #a news conference.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveb...ry-pretty-soon

[Winehole23]

Oman hosts US forces including a USAF wing and the US gets naval support at Duqm

[Winehole23]

Oman is a US ally, has helped US diplomatic efforts and was strongly leaned on by the US to do the current negotiations with Iran

wtf isTrump talking about

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

btw, there are no US/Iran peace talks

pretending that a putative secret backchannel to the IRGC is a Delcy Rodriguez situation assumes the US public and the IRGC are fools

[Winehole23]

if there is a backchannel, looks like Iran is willing to burn it in public

if there is a backchannel Trump is burning it in public, for that matter

IRGC Spokesman to Tasnim: Trump’s claim of backchannel talks with the IRGC is a delusion stemming from defeat.

[Winehole23]

WSJ:

Iran’s hard-line leaders huddled in Tehran and came up with a different plan, according to Iranian and Arab officials. In their view the pact was likely just an attempt by the U.S. and Israel to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road. Instead of putting faith in talks, they took the past two months to prepare for a bigger fight.

Their efforts include giving the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more control of the country’s regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the war with Iraq and past internal crackdowns to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence operations and ramping up production of missiles and drones. The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran’s grip on Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has used to get around Iran’s chokehold on the Persian Gulf.

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Foreign Affairs warns of the energy shock

It would be tempting to conclude that the dangers of energy supply disruptions have been overstated, but such complacency would be misguided. The Hormuz crisis has so far led to only modest oil price es thanks to an unusual combination of favorable market conditions and years of investment in energy security measures. Before the war began, oil markets were oversupplied, inventories were relatively high, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had built pipelines around the strait, and governments and companies had amassed emergency and commercial stocks. In addition, China helped stabilize the global oil balance by reducing its imports, drawing on its immense capacity to curb how much oil it buys for stocks, holds in inventory, refines for export, and consumes domestically.

These conditions may not endure. If the conflict enters a new phase of intense fighting that threatens to spill across borders and continues to block the strait, oil markets, now stressed by shortages of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, could see crude oil prices surge higher. But even if hostilities in the region de-escalate, a persistent risk to traffic through the strait will likely remain, with passage either outright controlled by Iran or, at the very least, subject to Iranian disruption at any time. A more optimistic scenario in the next several months seems a chimera, barring major and unlikely change in Tehran….

The relatively modest movement in global benchmark prices concealed a strikingly uneven distribution of pain, as countries in Asia and Europe endured high prices, shortages, rationing, fiscal strain, and forced reductions in consumption, while the United States and China demonstrated newfound levels of insulation and influence. Delayed effects also loom on the horizon. Because of the crunch in refining, diesel and other crude products are priced much higher than they normally would be at current headline oil prices. And the shock is making it harder and more costly for Europe to replenish its natural gas inventories, leaving the continent with lower-than-usual storage levels and more vulnerable to energy and geopolitical coercion in the coming winter.

In preparing for these scenarios, as well as new crises in the more distant future, the world should not take solace in the relatively benign outcome of the last five months for energy markets. The cushions that helped the world manage those months are now more threadbare: inventories have been depleted, demand is recovering, alternative routes are becoming more vulnerable, and infrastructure continues to come under fire and, in some cases, will take years to repair. A second phase of the Hormuz crisis could prove substantially more damaging than the first.

https://archive.ph/GMrB5#selection-1117.1-1121.44

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[Blake]

WE'LL JUST BOMB THE OUT OF THEM

* as soon as we make more bombs

[velik_m]

WE'LL JUST BOMB THE OUT OF THEM

* as soon as we make more bombs

By "them" you are of course talking about Oman?

Trump threatens to ‘bomb’ Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ as U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires

[Blake]

By "them" you are of course talking about Oman?

Trump threatens to ‘bomb’ Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ as U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires

Yeah was referring to his post about Oman which he will now again direct at Iran for the umpteenth obliterated time.

[Blake]

Iran is offering its citizens up to $60,000 to kill or capture American service members, as its army chief vows that U.S. bases in the Middle East will not be allowed to return to their prewar state.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/mid...-22579432.html
Source - Stars and Stripes

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