*~* Trump Stock Market / Economy Crash Watch *~*

[velik_m]

US economy added jobs at a slower pace than expected in June

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported that employers added 57,000 jobs in June. That figure was below the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who estimated 110,000 jobs added.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, which was also below the estimate of 4.3%.

Revisions were made to the payroll numbers for the prior two months, with April revised down by 31,000 from a gain of 179,000 to 148,000; while May's report was revised down from 43,000 from a gain of 172,000 to 129,000.

Taken together, employment in April and May was 74,000 jobs lower than previously reported.

...

Private payrolls added 49,000 jobs in June, well below the LSEG poll's prediction of 110,000 jobs. May's private sector job gains were also revised down from a gain of 120,000 to 97,000.

Government payrolls grew by 8,000 jobs last month, while the increase of 52,000 in May was revised down to 32,000 jobs.

The manufacturing sector added 3,000 jobs in June, in line with the estimate of economists polled by LSEG. May's figures were revised down from a gain of 7,000 jobs to a loss of 2,000.

Healthcare continued to add jobs last month, with the sector adding 21,500 jobs in June. That's a slower pace than the average monthly gain of 38,000 over the last 12 months. Hospitals added 9,200 jobs for the month, contributing to a significant portion of the gain.

Leisure and hospitality employment declined by 61,000 in June, which reflected weaker than usual seasonal hiring. The sector has shown little net change in employment over the course of 2026 to date.

...

The number of long-term unemployed, defined as those who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.9 million in June but is up 286,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.3% of all unemployed people last month.

The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons also held relatively steady at 4.7 million in June. These individuals would've preferred full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours were reduced, or they weren't able to find full-time jobs.

...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...port-june-2026

[Blake]

When asked about his lucrative stock portfolio, President Donald Trump told reporters: "You know ⁠why ​I'm profiting? Because the ​stock market's going up, everybody's profiting."
But not everybody is sharing in the market's upside.
The top 1% own about 50% of corporate equities and mutual fund shares, according to the most recent Federal Reserve data. The bottom 50% of households collectively hold just 1% of that stock and mutual fund wealth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/trum...-1percent.html

[velik_m]

Lawsuit alleges Freedom Fuel gas stations touted by Trump are selling stolen fuel

A lawsuit filed this month alleges that there’s a simple reason some stations in the Freedom Fuel Network — the chain of discount gas stations promoted by the White House — have been able to sell gas so cheaply: Some $4 million worth of the gas is stolen.

KRSM, the business named in the suit, denies this accusation.

Freedom Fuel stations located around Philadelphia and New Jersey burst into public view in the run-up to the July Fourth holiday, when President Donald Trump posted praise for their discounted pump prices, writing “They are doing this because they love the U.S.A.” The White House later posted a video of drivers filling up at one of the stations and thanking Trump for the low prices — at the time, $3.47 a gallon in honor of the 47th president, though they’ve since crept up.

Neither the White House nor the network’s owners would explain exactly how the stations were able to sell fuel far cheaper than their compe ors. The White House told reporters that Freedom Fuel was simply a private company lowering its margins for patriotic reasons and declined to disclose the people behind it — who turned out to be a former New Jersey mayor and NFL special teams coach for the Baltimore Ravens, a GOP donor.

...

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/0...trump-01055248

[Winehole23]

Trump has stolen billions in US appropriations, so this tracks

[velik_m]

[velik_m]

Corn and wheat prices jump to highest prices in more than three years

Corn and wheat prices have surged to their highest levels in more than three years. But the forces driving recent rallies for these two crops are notably different.

Wheat futures settled 3.1% higher at 784 cents per bushel on Friday after hitting a high of 790.25 cents, the highest since Feb. 14, 2023 when it traded 797.5. Wheat jumped 12.1% this week, its biggest weekly gain since March 2022. Overall, wheat futures were up more than 54.5% year-to-date, amid escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions in the Black Sea.

Corn futures settled 0.6% higher at 536.5 cents per bushel Friday after hitting a high of 541.25 cents, the highest level since July 28, 2023. Corn gained 5.5% for the week and is up 15.6% in August, on pace for its best month since April 2021 when it rose 19.31%. The contract is up 21.8% year-to date on tighter U.S. supply expectations and strong demand, with constrained Ukrainian exports adding pressure to global supplies.

Corn’s recent rally is largely driven by mounting concerns around the supply of the U.S. crop and a weak outlook, while disruptions to Ukrainian exports continue to add pressure to the global supply.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/corn...ree-years.html

[velik_m]

.

[Winehole23]

war caused fuel/fertilizer inflation that will continue to cycle through the system for the next 18 months or so

• In a widely cited report earlier this month, J.P. Morgan analysts warned that global food inflation would hit 5% in the first half of 2027, nearly double what it was in the first half of 2026.
• "Price pressures are expected to extend through (the first half of 2027), as crop and price effects are still building and agricultural impacts lag the oceanic peak by 6 to 12 months," they wrote.

https://www.axios.com/2026/08/30/gro...ces-war-diesel

[velik_m]

10-year yield hits highest since January 2025 as higher oil prices stoke inflation worries

U.S. Treasury yields traded were little changed on Tuesday after renewed tensions in the Middle East drove global government borrowing costs to their highest point going back to early last year.

The 10-year Treasury note yield — the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — slid less than 1 basis point to 4.756%. The yield hit its highest level since Jan. 14, 2025 earlier in the day.

The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield, which tends to track geopolitical events, was down more than 1 basis point at 5.235%.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which typically moves in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, climbed more than 1 basis point to 4.365%.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/01/bond...-tensions.html

[Winehole23]

Trump caused a global energy crunch by starting a dumb war in the Persian Gulf and has destabilized global trade and security

The reckless, degenerate freaks currently in charge of the USA are giving everybody else the jitters

[velik_m]

10-year Treasury yield jumps to highest since 2023 despite Bessent’s $6 billion bond buyback plan

U.S. yields rose on Wednesday after the Treasury Department unveiled a debt buyback plan that’s triple the normal amount.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was up more than 3 basis points at 4.839%. The benchmark rate also hit its highest level since Nov. 1, 2023, when it reached a high of 4.935%.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield was also 3 basis points higher at 5.292%. The 2-year yield — typically more sensitive to near-term policy expectations — was trading up more than 1 basis point at 4.415%.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/trea...inflation.html

[Winehole23]

^^^ market calls bull on Scott Bessent

[velik_m]

Inflation persisted in August, potentially locking in a Fed interest rate hike

Prices for a wide swath of goods and services continued to climb in August, according to a report Friday that raises the specter of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week.

The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month increase at 3.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Both readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus.

However, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI posted a 0.3% monthly gain, or 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast. The core annual rate came in at 2.4%, in line with the estimate.

...

Chairman Kevin Warsh has expressed a commitment to getting inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target and said recently that if the numbers don’t improve, “we have work to do.” His comments were widely interpreted as advocating a rate hike, though several key officials over the past few weeks have counseled a more patient approach.

“Chair Warsh and others signaled that interest rates can remain on hold only if disinflation continues and today’s August report did not deliver that,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “Further, the renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations.”

Nationwide now expects a quarter-point hike next week. The Fed funds rate, a benchmark for multiple consumer loans, is currently pegged in a range of 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been for all of 2026.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-...gust-2026.html

[Winehole23]

Bessent’s signaling to markets through the buybacks move could prove counter-productive as it was ‘showing some nervousness’ on the part of the US government

https://www.ft.com/content/dd4cc4a0-...c-b379d457019b

[velik_m]

30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2004 as bond market rout continues

Treasury yields were trading at multidecade highs on Thursday, as investor bets on another rate hike from the Federal Reserve mounted.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 6 basis points at 5.462% and reached a 2004 peak. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which is tied to rates on mortgages, rose more than 5 basis points to 5.166% and hit its highest level since July 2007. The yield on the 2-year note rose slightly to 4.897% and remained close to a 2023 high.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/us-t...inflation.html

[velik_m]

Mortgage rates top 7%, dealing a further blow to the frozen housing market

Mortgage rates reached a grim milestone this week, topping 7% for the first time since January 2025 and reaching their highest level during either of Donald Trump’s presidential terms.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.03% this week, up from 6.95% last week, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.

It’s the fifth-straight week of rising mortgage rates, putting a deeper squeeze on housing affordability. Higher rates mean larger monthly payments and less purchasing power for buyers.
...

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/24/e...tops-7-percent

[Winehole23]

the US economy is doing just fine but Trump keeps mashing buttons (tariffs, trade wars, Persian Gulf War) that make prices go up

as Biden found out, the thermostatic popular reaction to inflation is neither restrained nor demonstrably connected to underlying (aggregate) economic conditions

lol

[velik_m]

Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in September, pointing to a surprising soft spot in the labor market and broader economy.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 29,000 for the month while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for job growth of 84,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%.

In addition to the weakness in September, the August jobs count was revised lower to reflect a gain of 133,000 while July switched from a gain to a loss as payrolls fell by 10,000. The revisions in total showed 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

Market reaction was swift to the report, with traders interpreting the soft jobs numbers as good news as they likely further cemented the Federal Reserve staying put at its October meeting.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs...mber-2026.html

[velik_m]

A gut punch in Ohio: Nearly 1,400 laid off at truck factory just days before Trump rally

...

The layoffs — occurring just three days before President Donald Trump’s rally on Saturday at a nearby high school — were large enough to basically erase an entire year of job growth in the greater Dayton, Ohio, area. And they are one reason why Bos, 30, plans to spend the final weeks before the November election canvassing votes for Democrats.

Asked how many times he had voted for Trump, Bos held up three tattooed fingers. But he said he’s done with the president.

“Something has to change politically in this country,” said Bos, a member of the United Auto Workers who identifies as a centrist. “Seems like it just kept getting worse and worse and worse.”

...

His broad tariffs failed to boost demand and the plant’s former owner, International Motors, chose to offload the facility. And Trump’s major legislative achievement — the One Big Beautiful Bill — contributed little to people’s take-home pay, even as it temporarily stripped taxes from tips and overtime.

“We weren’t getting a lot of overtime because of the economy,” said Marianne Donnelly, who drove a forklift at the factory. “There just wasn’t any to be had, very little to be had.”

Meanwhile, costs have kept climbing. Donnelly said she buys marked-down beef, pork and chicken and stows them in her freezer. She canceled her subscriptions to The Columbus Dispatch and The Washington Post newspapers, along with some streaming services.

Laid-off workers like Donnelly say they expect to be rehired in six to 12 months by Roshel, a Canadian manufacturer of armored vehicles that is buying the plant. Roshel said in a statement that it’s “working with everyone involved not only to protect the current workforce, but to more than double it over the coming years through a phased process.”

...

https://apnews.com/article/trump-ohi...09bcd9c8b78a3e

[velik_m]

Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022

September’s producer price index came in much hotter than economists forecast on Thursday, underscoring the continued inflationary pressure from energy amid the U.S. war with Iran.

The measure of underlying inflation pressures climbed 1.3% in September and 6.3% on an annual basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That marked the largest monthly and annual gains since March 2022 and December 2022, respectively.

Both readings topped expectations of economists polled by Dow Jones, who forecast an advance of 0.6% on the month and 5.5% annually.

Energy drove a sizable chunk of those increases as the Middle East conflict curtailed oil supply and sent prices surging. The so-called core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices from the wholesaler inflation index, added 0.7% on the month and 5% over the 12-month period.

But there are signs that soaring energy prices are having downstream effects on other categories. The BLS said in Thursday’s release that almost half of September’s increase in processed goods for immediate demand was connected to the rise in diesel fuel prices.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/sept...ales-data.html

[Blake]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/sept...ales-data.html

That's all on Trump and the Rs

[velik_m]

China cuts US Treasury holdings to 18-year low in August as American debt fears mount

China has further reduced its holdings of US Treasuries to an 18-year low in August, as it continued to diversify its foreign exchange reserves amid rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over Washington’s fiscal outlook.

China’s holdings fell to US$590.7 billion in August, down US$27.3 billion from US$618 billion in July, data released by the US Treasury Department showed on Friday. That marked the lowest total recorded since August 2008, when its holdings tumbled to US$573.7 billion, according to Chinese financial data provider Wind.

China joined Japan, the largest foreign holder of US debt, in offloading the bonds that month. Japan cut its holdings to US$1.07 trillion in August by selling US$35.6 billion from US$1.1 trillion in July.
...

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...gtype=homepage

[Winehole23]

reinsurers worried about mispriced market risk for climate change

https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...rance+Memo.pdf

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]