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  1. #376
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    But taking even more of a look at the Zollins timeline, under that contract:

    2021-22, medical recovery. Even if the recovery goes as well as everyone hopes, he isn’t going to be significant this season. He’ll still have to get back in shape, knock off the (thick) rust and rehone his skill, learn to fit into how the Spurs play, etc. Maybe he could get a little garbage time late in the season. More than that should not be expected.

    ‘22-23, see if he can still play. If all the above goes well, and also training camp and preseason, slot him into the rotation for a serious look. At backup center or pf. Even if everything has gone fabulously, the Spurs wouldn’t start him from the beginning of the season. Maybe at some point in the latter half of the season, if he sparkles irresistibly, they’d tentatively start him, while making sure somebody else is on hand to start instead, just in case. [add sound effect of a bone breaking]

    ‘23-24, he’s good. Alakazam, magic has happened. The Spurs make him a starter for sure, and he plays well. *And everybody in the NBA sees it.*

    2024, he’s UFA. The Spurs find themselves bidding against a dozen other teams for him. And he’s gone.

    Oh well, one good season from him. Maybe, possibly, could be. In the best case.

    Then, the Spurs find themselves shopping for another center who’s any good. Or perhaps, they outbid everyone else, to keep Zollins. So the Spurs are then overpaying him, and it no longer looks like he was ever any bargain at all.

    Again, that’s best case, where he has a delightful recovery. Worst case is, total failure, and the Spurs have wasted an opportunity to try somebody else, who could at least run and jump when they signed him.

    How is this a good gamble?
    This is the best projection I have seen of the best case scenario. You have convinced me they are looking for a center prospect that can shoot (not a PF)… maybe.

  2. #377
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    But taking even more of a look at the Zollins timeline, under that contract:

    2021-22, medical recovery. Even if the recovery goes as well as everyone hopes, he isn’t going to be significant this season. He’ll still have to get back in shape, knock off the (thick) rust and rehone his skill, learn to fit into how the Spurs play, etc. Maybe he could get a little garbage time late in the season. More than that should not be expected.

    ‘22-23, see if he can still play. If all the above goes well, and also training camp and preseason, slot him into the rotation for a serious look. At backup center or pf. Even if everything has gone fabulously, the Spurs wouldn’t start him from the beginning of the season. Maybe at some point in the latter half of the season, if he sparkles irresistibly, they’d tentatively start him, while making sure somebody else is on hand to start instead, just in case. [add sound effect of a bone breaking]

    ‘23-24, he’s good. Alakazam, magic has happened. The Spurs make him a starter for sure, and he plays well. *And everybody in the NBA sees it.*

    2024, he’s UFA. The Spurs find themselves bidding against a dozen other teams for him. And he’s gone.

    Oh well, one good season from him. Maybe, possibly, could be. In the best case.

    Then, the Spurs find themselves shopping for another center who’s any good. Or perhaps, they outbid everyone else, to keep Zollins. So the Spurs are then overpaying him, and it no longer looks like he was ever any bargain at all.

    Again, that’s best case, where he has a delightful recovery. Worst case is, total failure, and the Spurs have wasted an opportunity to try somebody else, who could at least run and jump when they signed him.

    How is this a good gamble?
    I come to the same conclusion no matter how I look at it. It's a relatively small amount of money but this looks like a gamble that wasn't really worth taking. Maybe there's like a 1% chance where Zollins' is like a Sabonis who will blossom away from ball dominant guards. But otherwise even the higher end outcomes where he's able to return, the Spurs only have him locked into a market rate contract. And then you still have a tough call to sign him in three years given his injury history.

    It's just a weird gamble where it's difficult to imagine what a realistic "win" looks like.

  3. #378
    Spurs Sage Russ's Avatar
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    Hmmm. How? Zollins likely won’t play for a long time, so it will take much longer to assess if he can even contribute at all, right? Drew and Jock will both play next year immediately and so they can at least make a fuller assessment of whether Drew is in the longer term plans, I think.
    Look at the salaries -- you usually don't have a player making $7 million as an insurance policy for players making considerably less.

  4. #379
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    In a classic case of missing the forest for the trees, the more I think about it, the more I'm now convinced that the signings of Collins and Jock aren't a case of the Spurs looking for compe ion for Samanic and Eubanks but that the Spurs front office just doesn't view Poeltl as the long-term starter at center. If the Spurs are looking for the eventual Poeltl replacement before having to sign him to his next contract, then the timeline of Collins' contract makes more sense, as does the usage of multiple roster spots on a position (center) that looks to be reasonably set.

    Poeltl has two years left on his contract. By the end of his contract, the Spurs seem to be aligning themselves to be able to move on to a modern center who can shoot.

    Still don't love the Collins signing but if you think of it as the Spurs throwing a lot of center options on the wall to hope to find one that sticks before they'd be forced to hand Poeltl an even bigger contract even though he doesn't have a modern-friendly game, it makes a little bit more sense.
    You're not totally wrong. 21/22 will be the last Spurs season for Poeltl. They'll try to get anything out of him either at the trade deadline or in the next offseason. I could even imagine that they trade him before the season begins. Looking into the future there's a chance that the Spurs don't want to pay too much for a non-shooting center given the construction of the roster and the rebuilding process they are in. He has more value for a contending team. And if he improves his shooting the Spurs won't have the money to pay him what he wants.

    That said, I'm pretty sure that neither Zollins nor Landale are the solution for the starting 5 spot.

  5. #380
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    Ok here it is:

    1st year 100% guaranteed
    2nd year 50% guaranteed
    3rd year 0% guaranteed

    that definitely makes the contract look better

  6. #381
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    What is the opportunity cost of signing Zollins to this deal?

    Who did the spurs miss a chance on?

    sounds to me like the gamble was worth it.

  7. #382
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    I‘m not mad at it. They can easily get rid of him and open up cap space if they want to. It’s worth a gamble

  8. #383
    Remember Cherokee Parks The Truth #6's Avatar
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    Look at the salaries -- you usually don't have a player making $7 million as an insurance policy for players making considerably less.
    True. But the timing is totally backwards because Zollins likely won’t play for a long time. If Jock or Drew somehow becomes their guy, then why would they invest more money in Zollins? It’s a weird signing for that and other reasons. It feels like an overpay, and then, as others have outlined, it’s a weird road for him to succeed with us. But I don’t have all their info, so I’m speculating.

  9. #384
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    50% for year 2 is a bit much, not too happy about that. Good work by Bartelstein.

    Too high a chance they just pay him to rehab all year one then have to eat year 2. I guess they got used to having dead money from guys who can't play over the years

  10. #385
    Chopper Ed Helicopter Jones's Avatar
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    Ok here it is:

    1st year 100% guaranteed
    2nd year 50% guaranteed
    3rd year 0% guaranteed

    that definitely makes the contract look better
    That's night quite as painful. A year two salary dump in a trade if all hope is lost in his rehab efforts this year.

  11. #386
    foaming at the nostrils raybies's Avatar
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    50% for year 2 is a bit much, not too happy about that. Good work by Bartelstein.

    Too high a chance they just pay him to rehab all year one then have to eat year 2. I guess they got used to having dead money from guys who can't play over the years
    f

    don't remember how to posts gifs anymore....

    https://media.giphy.com/media/26FPGI...YVTa/giphy.gif

  12. #387
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    So Zach Collins' 2022-23 season is guaranteed the day after the 2022 draft and his 2023-24 season is guaranteed the day after the 2023 draft. That's ... not what I was hoping for, tbh. If he doesn't play this season, the Spurs will have to decide whether to keep him or waive him before seeing him play at all -- they can't even wait until 2022 training camp to see how his body is responding.

    Given those dates, the Spurs probably will want him to play this season if he's able to. Even if it's just March and April, the Spurs will want to see something before figuring out whether to guarantee his 2022-23 salary.

  13. #388
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    So Zach Collins' 2022-23 season is guaranteed the day after the 2022 draft and his 2023-24 season is guaranteed the day after the 2023 draft. That's ... not what I was hoping for, tbh. If he doesn't play this season, the Spurs will have to decide whether to keep him or waive him before seeing him play at all -- they can't even wait until 2022 training camp to see how his body is responding.

    Given those dates, the Spurs probably will want him to play this season if he's able to. Even if it's just March and April, the Spurs will want to see something before figuring out whether to guarantee his 2022-23 salary.
    You keep saying the season, but there was a rumor about December-ish a while back.

    The season would explain why they're employing 4 centers in '21 though.

  14. #389
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    You keep saying the season, but there was a rumor about December-ish a while back.
    December was his agent talking in that puff piece when Zollins was a free agent and looking for a contract. Of course he would paint the rosiest picture possible. Along with the December date, they were also saying that the s ches healing well was a sign that "this time it's different than the other two times"

    Maybe the Spurs will hold Zollins to that December date but for a thrice broken ankle, I'm assuming more like All-Star break at the earliest.

  15. #390
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    You keep saying the season, but there was a rumor about December-ish a while back.

    The season would explain why they're employing 4 centers in '21 though.
    Yeah, I would certainly hope that the guarantee dates point to the Spurs thinking Zollins will be ready sooner rather than later. The 4th center could be a backup plan in case he has a setback. But that's just me guessing.

  16. #391
    Veteran Degoat's Avatar
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    I think he’ll debut sometime late January if I was to guess, I think ZC will be wanting to get on the court ASAP tho

  17. #392
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    December was his agent talking in that puff piece when Zollins was a free agent and looking for a contract. Of course he would paint the rosiest picture possible. Along with the December date, they were also saying that the s ches healing well was a sign that "this time it's different than the other two times"

    Maybe the Spurs will hold Zollins to that December date but for a thrice broken ankle, I'm assuming more like All-Star break at the earliest.
    All-Star break or the season, they should still be looking to move either Young or Eubanks (or in the unlikely event of a Simmons trade, Poeltl to a third team).

    It's a virtual lock neither is on the team beyond the season anyway and in the interim, they're a poor fit together and/or in lineups with any of Poeltl, Johnson, Murray.

  18. #393
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I think ZC will be wanting to get on the court ASAP tho
    If you're Zollins, I think you slow-roll the return as much as possible. If the bone breaks again, the Spurs waive him and his career is over. If it doesn't break, he'll get paid at least one more year. From Zollins' POV, there's no reason to rush back. If he plays 15 games at the end of the season and looks decent, that's most likely enough for him to get the next season of his contract guaranteed.

  19. #394
    Erryday I'm Hustlin' Robz4000's Avatar
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    I don't think he ever plays again tbh.

  20. #395
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    So Zach Collins' 2022-23 season is guaranteed the day after the 2022 draft and his 2023-24 season is guaranteed the day after the 2023 draft. That's ... not what I was hoping for, tbh. If he doesn't play this season, the Spurs will have to decide whether to keep him or waive him before seeing him play at all -- they can't even wait until 2022 training camp to see how his body is responding.

    Given those dates, the Spurs probably will want him to play this season if he's able to. Even if it's just March and April, the Spurs will want to see something before figuring out whether to guarantee his 2022-23 salary.
    Yeah, that was part of my issue with the deal:

    Depends on the way the guarantee is structured. If Collins can go into 2022-2023 without guaranteeing the entire year, the Spurs might do as you say. If they have to make a decision on him before the end of next season, he'll probably be back in time to let them see him play first.
    What's worse is that because half of that money is sunk cost, the decision they're likely to make is actually if Collins is worth $3.5 Million or whatever. My guess is unless he's horrendous, they're going to think he is. I'm assuming he has some waiver of his injury clause in his non-guaranteed years, or else the contract could be stupidly bad, so hopefully we don't have to worry about him getting hurt in March and hanging on the 22/23 roster again. But this contract was insanely unnecessary. They're making a huge investment in him a) getting healthy b) staying healthy c) knocking the rust off and d) improving to actually be an okay player. All of that just to justify paying him $7 Million a year. They're basically treating him like he was a top-10 pick from this year rather than a bust from four years ago.

  21. #396
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    I don't think he ever plays again tbh.
    He'll play again but he won't have the plus impact some are expecting. And he's going to be injury prone for the rest of his career too. Weird gamble to make on someone that only has role player upside

  22. #397
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    Disagree with karen.. I mean kurgan...next Tiago calling it now

  23. #398
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    I’ve in other pieces 4-6 months recovery time from his June 29, 2021 surgery.

  24. #399
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    I’ve in other pieces 4-6 months recovery time from his June 29, 2021 surgery.
    He’s been walking about town freely. With his history, I’d think they would be on the safe side to let him strengthen until towards December

  25. #400
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    He’s been walking about town freely. With his history, I’d think they would be on the safe side to let him strengthen until towards December
    Yeah I’m all for precaution and injuries will probably always be a concern given his history but I think we get some decent insight in what he still has earlier than some ppl are expecting.

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