Just wanted to put a bit more detail into the tie-break scenarios for the teams that could still factor into SA’s seeding.
Golden State — H2H win on Monday. The Warriors have a huge lead for the second tie-break but they honestly won’t be caught, so I’m not going into great detail there. Only have them for completeness’ sake.
Denver — H2H goes to the Spurs if they win the 4/3 game. If they lose, Denver has a commanding lead for the tie-break, but they’re also unlikely to be caught anyway.
Houston — Can tie up H2H on 3/22, which would give them control of the second tie-break (division record). They’d also be decently positioned to win the conference-record tie-break. The Rockets are one of the few teams that have a better record against the West than SA does, but win a loss to the Spurs, the two clubs would be knotted up with Houston having a harder in-conference schedule at that point.
OKC — H2H locked in, but in the event of a three-way tie, the Spurs have to worry about the Thunder’s stellar conference record. They are only one game behind the Spurs, and that includes this recent loss to GS
Portland — H2H knotted up. The Spurs hold a substantial lead in conference record, and they could clinch that tie-break as early as Friday if they win their two conference games next weekend and Portland loses theirs against Dallas. The Spurs actually have a very East-based schedule the rest of the way, so it might take a while to get the official tie-break. But it should happen eventually.
Utah — Lost the H2H already, and there’s a decent chance the Jazz could catch the Spurs in the conference-record tie-break. SA has a one-game lead, but that could be snapped up pretty easily by Houston and/or GS. Even if the Spurs do win this tie-break, it’s pretty unlikely they’d get to this second step in multi-team scenarios. They’d lose in three-way ties with, Portland, OKC, LAC and Sacramento. They’d only not lose against Denver (though Utah would actually still beat SA unless the Nuggets win both lose their game against SA and beat Utah five days later). They’d lose to against Houston if the Rockets were in another division, but since the winner of the Southwest has to be determined first, if the Spurs won based on division record or something, they’d actually win the multi-team tie-break due to the “zeroth rule” where division winners automatically win any ties with wildcards (and no, this is not the same rule that was changed after 2015 — it’s still there.) It doesn’t help that the two teams are tied in the loss column already, so it wouldn’t be absurd to consider Utah the actual sixth seed as of right now.
LAC — H2H knotted up. Conference tie-break is too close to call. The Spurs have a two-game lead on them, and both teams play Houston and GS. The Spurs also play Denver, though, and neither Dallas nor Sacramento can be taken lightly.
SAC — Lost the H2H already. If the Spurs win a conference game or if the Kings lose a conference game, the Spurs will secure the second-tie break. As with the Jazz, it’s really hard to see a scenario where the Spurs even get to a second tie-break scenario with the Kings. Losing a three-game series 2-1 is a killer for multi-team scenarios.
Minnesota — The Spurs have already won the H2H, and their conference magic number is 1. Heck, it might be zero, but I can’t be asked to calculate the third tie-break (record against playoff teams in the West). Seeing how they’re at the bottom of a division where the other four teams are currently in the playoffs, I’d assume they wouldn’t grade well there, while SA has an okay record against Western playoff teams that could become downright elite if they win their matches against GS, Houston and Denver.
LAL — LOL. Their 3-1 H2H win makes it really unlikely the teams could even have a second tie-break. They’re toast anyway.
DAL — Also LOL. They’re in the same boat the Lakers are, but their magic number is lower. It’s possible that the Spurs have secured all possible three-way tie-breaks anyway. Even if Dallas managed to tie, the Spurs have already won the second tie-break too.
NO and Memphis can’t catch SA in any scenario and Phoenix has been eliminated from playoff contention. No need to talk about them.
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