Keldon is not even a year olde than Keegan, has 3 years NBA experience, and has crafted himself into a 40% 3G shooter, and paint beast. I don’t think this would go the way that you think it would.
Keldon at his age and with his new-found three point accuracy is certainly worth more than $12-14M. His extension wouldn't even kick in until the cap has gone up two more times (this summer and next summer). I think he will get something like 4/80. More actual dollars than White/Murray but around the same percentage of the cap.
I get all that. I have reservations about his ability to play the 3 long term, and simply just don’t think he’s the long term solution at PF. So that begs the question where is his long term fit?
I think Johnson could be a solid third option on a le team, or maybe a 2B. That's not something I think about anyone else on the team. In order to do that, he needs to be paired with a forward who masks his weaknesses. That's why drafting a role-player at 9 isn't a bad thing, IF that role-player allows Johnson to develop into a star. I do think a guy like Eason might be able to do that if he develops correctly.
However, I still think the more likely path for Keldon to "make it" is as a sixth man, and drafting someone like Murray, who doesn't need as much to go right to reach his ceiling, would be a step in that direction. Do I think Johnson and Murray could play together? Yes, probably, especially with Vassell to cover small-forwards that might give Johnson trouble. But I also think the team could find more success having Murray play PF, moving Vassell to SF and bringing in a two-guard who can take over a lot of the scoring load while also adding speed and ball-handling to the lineup. Looking at free agency, finding that two-guard is way easier than finding the forward to make the first situation work. Plus, I think Johnson would be a huge upgrade over Walker, who'd probably return to his sixth-man role in a scenario where Johnson remains a starter and the team drafts Sochan or Eason.
But yeah, I think Keldon is going to get the biggest rookie extension the Spurs have ever given out. Most of that is salary-cap inflation. Some of it is positional premium. But I do think the team sees him as an important piece going forward. I don't love that they seem to think that, but that doesn't matter.
who do you want at 9?
I love Keldon. He’s probably my favorite Spur right now. Still, I think it’s be a mistake given the team’s lifecycle not to prospect for other Derrick White type opportunities right now.
Keegan checks off Spurs needs, go-to scorer and size at 4. If he’s available at 9, Spurs shouldn’t play cute and just swoop him right away. I don’t get how his offensive will not translate in the NBA. He’s a player who shoots 39% at 3 AND who can post it, besides rim running the ball. And it’s not like his defense will not improve in the Spurs system. The guy is not flat footed nor slow. Most importantly, he will not shy away as a go-to scorer, which he is already the bulk of offense at Iowa. I would be extremely disappointed if Keegan is available at 9, and Spurs draft somebody else.
Now does Spurs reach for him at 5 or 6, while giving up another FRP or asset? I don’t think they should. I think Spurs could instead draft Sochan, Dieng if they want a PF, or Davis, Mathurin if they want a goto scorer and draft Eason at 20. But at 9, Spurs should pick up Keegan if available.
I want a raw project at whatever position we can find one. That’s the only way to get a star outside the first few picks. The more developed the player,the slimmer the odds. Same with age. I want an 18 or at most 19 YO player.
Maybe. I’m totally fine with Murray at #9. Nice insurance for Keldon if contract talks stall or if he we get him on a reasonable deal. No reason why Keegan and Keldon can’t coexist but while a Keldon/Keegan/Jak frontline is a huge upgrade over what we out put out this year it still poses many challenges from my perspective.
^ Barely Legal.
Spurs are paying McDermott 13.75 a year, so there's no way Keldon's agent could let him get less than 20. McDermott is only 'good' for 24 minutes a game when he even plays, of course Keldon won't be getting 13-14.
I wouldn't have a problem with paying Keldon if he was better on defense.
It's not about how much they paid McDermott. Spurs would say McDermott underperformed and Murray got 16M a year. It is all about how much any other teams are willing to pay Keldon. Not sure if there is a team willing to give him more than 20 a year based upon his performance this year.
They paid him 13M with the expectation that he'd be better than he is, presumably, and it was a stupid move that I'm sure the FO regrets. A contract starting at 20M is about the extension Mikal Bridges got, for instance. That's too much IMO.
McDermott also has a 250k bonus if the team makes the playoffs.
Murray got 16 with a lower cap and coming off a missed season, never having averaged more than 9 points a game.
Cap is 10% higher now.
I don't want Keldon on an extension at the kind of money he's expecting, but that's the corner the Spurs trapped themselves in. Not enough tanking to get elite talent, but enough good talent coming up for new contracts to eat away the caproom eventually.
I also don't think the Spurs regret the McDermott deal. It basically went how anyone with a clue could have expected for a bad defending 30 year old part timer. That's what they wanted for their overpay and they got it, they're probably happy.
I tried putting Keegan Murray in the starting lineup on the Spurs in 2K and he’s such a seamless fit. It’s such a blessing having another player at the 4 who can create his own shot and get buckets for the team.
Looks great in a Spurs jersey.
It’s so stupid to focus on youth and be dismissive of all older players with the idea that they’ve capped out
Steph Curry was drafted as a 21 year old
Jimmy Butler was 22
Morant was 20
Harden was 20
Klay was 21
Russ was 20
Jokic was 20
Chris Paul was 20
Trae was 20
Jaylen Brown was 20
Kawhi was 20
Demar was 20
Khris Middleton was 21
Donovan Mitc was 21
Pascal was 22
Bam was 20
Dirk was 20
Lillard was 22
Paul George was 20
Pau Gasol was 21
Dwyane Wade was 22
Nash was 22
Paul Pierce was 21
So many players would have been overlooked if this concept of “only 18 and 19 year olds plz” was followed
this is ignoring the fact that many players in the last year or two have had their developmental years stripped away from them because of COVID protocols. Some older players could have came out sooner if it had not been for that fact.
There’s also an argument to be made about late bloomer types, be it from a physical development perspective or maturation of skills/ability. Keegan is the rare one who’s both.
Reality kind of likes my position more than yours. It might have helped if most of the players you listed had been drafted in the last 10 years, or in Dirks case, the last 20. You cherry picked data points over 23 years. I’m showing you how it is, all of the first round data, trended over time and by age.
Oh, and Ja was 19 at the draft.
Last year Spurs took the youngest player and the jury is still out on that one, instead of a Duarte or Sengun and I’m okay with that. Keegan is not Duarte or Sengun. I feel he has a higher ceiling than those two.
I don't think that list says what you think it does. Obviously, if more players are entering the draft earlier, they won't be around to take when they're older. That tells of the cultural shift toward one-and-done which we all know about. A better question would be, "Do younger players tend to perform better than those who come out of the draft when they're older?" Even that isn't a great question, because the obviously talented players are much less likely to stay in school for extra years with the cultural change. Guys who stay tend to do so to improve their stock, and since guys can sit out years straight out of high school and still be first-rounders nowadays, there's little incentive to stay in. In order to try to find data to address this draft, you'd have to control for general talent and hype and isolate age. You'd also have to decide beforehand if it's more important for a player to be better in general or better over the life of their first (or first and second) contract.
A rudimentary way to approach the topic would be to look at the more recent drafts and see which players have been the best and how old those players were when drafted. One can go to BBRef's page on the 2012 draft, for example, and sort if by win-shares earned. https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2012.html
Doing so shows that four of the top 10 players in that draft were juniors or seniors, and three more declared in their second year of eligibility. In 2013, five or the top 10 players were 21 or older, three more forwent their first years of eligibility and only two were first-year entrants. In 2014, six of the top 10 were one-and-dones, along with three second-years and one upperclassman. 2015 has four upperclassmen, three second-year entrants and three first-year entrants.
I'm not going to go into every draft, but looking ahead, there's a good mix of guys of all ages who end up being the best players in the draft. I do think MVPs and superstars tend to skew young. As I said, uber talents tend to be known during their first year and don't have anything to gain by not entering the draft. This draft is likely to not be that different given who's at the top. We aren't debating who to take with the first pick. We shouldn't expect the team is going to draft a franchise player. So if the goal is for them to grab the best guy left in the draft by the time they pick, they're not going to be particularly more likely to find that in a teenager than they are in a guy who used up most of his NCAA eligibility.
Also, ignoring the role COVID played in scouting for the past two draft is odd. Without a pandemic, I have a strong feeling that Primo would not be a Spur right now.
Nah, after telling me that sorted WSs didn’t indicate that the Spurs developed better than other teams, you don’t get to use those to prove your ten year old draft theory. Nope.
Kawhi was 19 on draft night,too.
The #1s since Duncan retired:
2016 19 YO
2017 22 YO
2018 19 YO
2019 19 YO X 2
2020 19 YO
2021 18 YO
If we pick and keep #9, it will be a player who is 18 or 19 YO. Just a hunch.
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