Don't worry, WReck. Dude's selling snake oil.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/574277/...arns-12-weeks/
That's not wildly out of line with the CDC upper end estimate of nationwide infection -- 70%
The more arresting detail was Mnuchin's warning about the duration of the lockdown
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin warned that the lockdown, currently impacting 80 million people across the country, could last 12 weeks.
Last edited by Winehole23; 03-22-2020 at 10:59 PM.
They live on top of each other in NYC
What a huge surprise.
Your compassion just knowing his figures are wrong is noted.
The problem with exponential models:
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/a...800632,00.htmlThere are several reasons for this, according to Levitt. “In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people. But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”
As a blessing in disguise, the Diamond Princess cruise ship situation gave us the perfect experiment. And the infection rate was only 20 percent.
Leftists will always love their fuzzy math that creates artificial calamities.
Scientist Cuck
This is generalizable to the rest of the country in your view? I can see the plausibility of what you're saying, but are you quite sure the math works that way?
Being that COVID-19 has already outstripped the capacity of Italy's health care system to treat all the patients and is about to do the same to Spain, isn't discussing true rates of infection and mortality a bit like arguing how many angels can stand on the head of a pin?
We already know this diaease can overmatch health care delivery, and we can't rule out that it will happen here. It's already happening in Seattle and NYC.
Last edited by Winehole23; 03-22-2020 at 11:35 PM.
Der Fuhrer? More like Comrade Stalin tbh
I appreciate the work mid has been putting in but I’m generally skeptical of armchair experts explaining why their logic and common sense trumps what the experts are saying... or that they are seeing something ALL the experts are missing
i hope he’s right though
You really think data isn't being cherry picked, Lite? You think it's a grand coincidence that everything in just about every state got shut down on the same day?
The assumption that NYC was contained like a cruise ship is ridiculous.
People DO make overlaps in Who they see especially when one person can virtually bomb a new area.
And Sorry, it does nothing to explain Northern Italy.
Nothing.
Too much assuming no one moves between groups when no one knows what is going wrong. We also don’t know how the viral output by those infected peaks and dies off before they show symptoms, while they show symptoms and after they are gone as it appears to vary with age at present. (This is huge in transmission and is not covered in a small sample size). There are many articles pointing out the limitations of the cruise ship as a model.
Quit trying to pretend you understand things you don’t.
I'm quoting the experts. I'm just putting their conclusions together. Furthermore, there isn't a neat consensus among all experts. CDC isn't the only authority here.
Levitt seems to think so. Based on exponential modeling from the initial outbreak in China, all of the world should've been infected in 90 days. But as he states, that exponential growth can't continue indefinitely because we don't meet new people every day, we're taking precautions to limit spread, and, though this is speculation, some people might be naturally immune and/or the virus has a tougher time infecting them.
Can you give us some idea of who has influenced your thinking here?
And who has been promulgating the simplistic exponential method of estimation? All the experts except Leavitt?
I don't believe I was -- the range of the CDC estimate is quite wide, 40%-70%. For a novel pathogen, it makes sense that estimates will vary widely based on spotty information.
For example, had I taken the lower end of the CDC's estimate, 40%, woild that really be so out of whack contextually with the case you cited?
There is a lot of discussion on this being the perfect experiment, like a Petri dish.
Almost nothing in biology is the perfect experiment. Way too many variables to compare.
Im not saying Cuomo is correct, I’m saying we already have other situations that appear to show a very high rate of infection. And this is where math model makers get into trouble.
The cruise ship was important because we have a trapped group we can follow closely. It does not mean it applies to mobile people in a crowded city. The mobility factor is underestimated in infecting an brand new uninfected population imo.
Not to mention we may have different strains on our hands now that might not have been on the cruise ship but become rapidly different in a large population. So much more as well.
There's some truths here and some falsehoods, and a lot of bull .
We are getting some facts from the CDC. We aren't getting all the variables so we cannot solve the equation. Either they don't care to inform us because of resources/time, or they have been instructed to not provide the information for some reason.
We keep seeing the number of infected increase while the recoveries stay at zero in the US. Why? The perhaps unintended consequence is that all people see is the bad, no one sees the good (that the overwhelmingly large percentage of people who contract this virus will recover in a few days, and that's the ones who have symptoms). This in turn leads to all the hand wringing and bleak outlooks you see here and elsewhere.
So we have 25-30K infections or so, how many recoveries? Surely someone who was diagnosed weeks ago has recovered, otherwise what's up with all the "advice from a recovered blah blah blah in Florida" nonsense?
Chart from John Hopkins. You'll see that daily percentage increases in cases in decreasing, and this is despite there being more testing. Exponential growth means a 100 percent increase again and again and again until everyone is infected.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=5EY15fSK
That said, yes, everyone/majority will get infected by this disease. We've all had the common cold and flu, but it'll probably take years. But I'm doubtful it's going to happen in 6-12 month time frame.
Covid-19 isn't THAT transmissible.
That's a pretty low number that will guard against a "runaway scenario." There's certain areas prone to be runaway, like New York, because they're forced into more enclosed spaces due to population density and much more reliance on mass transit, but most of the country isn't built like New York.From the CDC’s study on transmission in China and Princess Cruise outbreak -
A growing body of evidence indicates that COVID-19 transmission is facilitated in confined settings; for example, a large cluster (634 confirmed cases) of COVID-19 secondary infections occurred aboard a cruise ship in Japan, representing about one fifth of the persons aboard who were tested for the virus. This finding indicates the high transmissibility of
COVID-19 in enclosed spaces
Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine echoes this finding,
“If you have a COVID-19 patient in your household, your risk of developing the infection is about 10%….If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%”
Then there's the prospect of warmer weather slowing virality down, which will further reduce the probability of a runaway scenario. Sure you already saw my post, but here's the findings from the University of Maryland.
https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/...to-Thrive.html
That said, yes, places like New York are particularly vulnerable. They check all the boxes. High pop density, mass transit system, climate conducive to spread (remember, their flu transmission rate is 4.2x higher than Texas and California), probably resemble Italy to an extent where multiple generations of family live under the same roof, especially Italian Americans and such.
And yeah, even ideal areas where the virus won't spread much might get overwhelmed, but it'll be because of an insufficient healthcare system. The scenario I don't buy is 200 million infected and 1 million dead in a year. This is a stronger flu on top of the regular flu, and that is a problem in of itself.
Conspiracy derp
What percent of NY will become infected?
First timer to the forum? Welcome.
Well, I hope you're right in all.your interpolations and surmises about COVID-19. It's very sanguine to take the results of early studies as settled science.
Oh hey a goal post move. Back to the hur dur with you.
I think it's safe to say we're not tracking recoveries. 178 on record sounds especially low. However, I don't necessarily think right at this moment that's due to anything nefarious. It takes actual tests, sometimes more than one to re-check and assert a recovery. It was only a week ago where our testing capacity was absolutely dismal.
On top of that, we had record number of new cases today (5K), which I suspect is only a very minimal amount of the whole amount of people tested (or one would hope so). While it's important to know recovery rates, even if just as a morale booster, I'm keeping an eye on death counts, because that'll be the #1 indicator on how our health services are handling this situation.
Infection rate is what this thread's about, dip .
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