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  1. #1
    Believe.
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    Heard from Zach Lowe Pod this is the best publicly available advance metrics according to NBA people.

    https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

    In percentile:

    OFF DEF EPM
    Jakob Poeltl 73 98 94
    Derrick White 89 74 89
    Dejounte Murray 76 84 84
    Gorgui Dieng 73 83 82
    Rudy Gay 45 95 78
    Demar Derozan 95 5 72
    Patty Mills 67 73 71
    Devin Vassell 30 59 37
    Keldon Johnson 55 15 35
    Luka Samanic 17 73 34
    Drew Eubanks 31 32 28
    Keita Bates-Diop 12 45 21
    Trey Lyles 31 13 18
    Lonnie Walker 49 3 18
    Tre Jones 15 21 12
    Quindarry Weatherspoon 2 43 4

  2. #2
    Believe. Degoat's Avatar
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    Well that tells me Lonnie sucks lol

  3. #3
    Veteran BG_Spurs_Fan's Avatar
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    Interesting but I disagree with a lot of these. For one offense should matter wayyyyy more than defense. Also if your model shows Gorgui Dieng is better than DDR or that Poeltl is better than Donovan Mitc and Beal then it's wrong.

  4. #4
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    Well that tells me Lonnie sucks lol
    Up until about 4 games ago, I would have agreed with you. At least on offense, he seems to have flipped a switch.

  5. #5
    Formerly Spurs21
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    Why even watch basketball when you have stats. Rudy all defence 3rd team and also probably time to give up on Keldon, Luka and Walker.

  6. #6
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    Interesting but I disagree with a lot of these. For one offense should matter wayyyyy more than defense. Also if your model shows Gorgui Dieng is better than DDR or that Poeltl is better than Donovan Mitc and Beal then it's wrong.
    Ask Mike D’Antoni how that whole ‘only offense matters’ thing works out.

  7. #7
    Veteran BG_Spurs_Fan's Avatar
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    Ask Mike D’Antoni how that whole ‘only offense matters’ thing works out.
    Well yeah but still, especially in today's NBA, a player with great offense and terrible defense (Harden, Lillard, Young) is a star, but players with great defense and terrible offense are borderline NBA. In a team concept it's a bit more complicated than simply individual player's defense or offense.

    For this particular model they've clearly bumped some defense metrics to make up for it, e.g. Harden's and Tatum's defense rating being similar is a travesty.

  8. #8
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    God I miss Derrick white

  9. #9
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    God I miss Derrick white
    This. Probably our best two way player.

  10. #10
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    The gap between Dieng and Eubanks...

    Casual fan: advanced stats don't mean anything, DeRozan should be higher, him score a lotta points!

  11. #11
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    The gap between Dieng and Eubanks...

    Casual fan: advanced stats don't mean anything, DeRozan should be higher, him score a lotta points!
    If you go to their blog, it states that players below a certain minutes threshold the data becomes unreliable. Stats are useful, but only when you know how to use them. I don't agree with the OP's presentation of these stats. It's leaving out a lot of context. The site also does a bad job of explaining its methodology. There's always two sides to this spectrum: one end says stats are useless, and the other end runs away with the data presented to them without first evaluating the data.

    I will go over its flaws later today.

  12. #12
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    Great to see Daniel Gafford and Paul Reed ranked so high. Guys to watch for the future.

  13. #13
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    If you go to their blog, it states that players below a certain minutes threshold the data becomes unreliable. Stats are useful, but only when you know how to use them. I don't agree with the OP's presentation of these stats. It's leaving out a lot of context. The site also does a bad job of explaining its methodology. There's always two sides to this spectrum: one end says stats are useless, and the other end runs away with the data presented to them without first evaluating the data.

    I will go over its flaws later today.
    Everyone interested in stats knows that the smaller the sample size is, the less accurate the results. That's true of every stat.

  14. #14
    Don't stop believin' Dex's Avatar
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    Advanced stats seem to love Poeltl, so he must be doing something right.

    Hopefully Dieng chooses to stick around. I could see him and Jak being pretty interchangeable for the first and second center spots depending on matchup.

    I think the main reason he isn't getting minutes (aside from the shoulder injury) is he just doesn't know the system, and it's not like the Spurs have had any time in the practice gym in months.

    That's something that could easily be solved with a full offseason and training camp, and then he should be a lock for the rotation with his skills.

  15. #15
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Everyone interested in stats knows that the smaller the sample size is, the less accurate the results.
    Yes, so you should have known not to gloat about Dieng over Eubanks.

  16. #16
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    If you go to their blog, it states that players below a certain minutes threshold the data becomes unreliable. Stats are useful, but only when you know how to use them. I don't agree with the OP's presentation of these stats. It's leaving out a lot of context. The site also does a bad job of explaining its methodology. There's always two sides to this spectrum: one end says stats are useless, and the other end runs away with the data presented to them without first evaluating the data.

    I will go over its flaws later today.
    I’ve been doing software development for almost 35 years. Here are two statements. They’re both true.

    Models are useful.

    Models are wrong.

  17. #17
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    Yes, so you should have known not to gloat about Dieng over Eubanks.
    I can gloat because he's clearly a better player. You probably agree, but would prefer to be pedantic.

  18. #18
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    Well yeah but still, especially in today's NBA, a player with great offense and terrible defense (Harden, Lillard, Young) is a star, but players with great defense and terrible offense are borderline NBA. In a team concept it's a bit more complicated than simply individual player's defense or offense.

    For this particular model they've clearly bumped some defense metrics to make up for it, e.g. Harden's and Tatum's defense rating being similar is a travesty.
    Agree. Watching the Justine Winslow experiment play out in Memphis definitely proves this point. Hes awful offensively. On the level of worst player in the league getting minutes this season (and he contributed a great deal to a share of recent Grizzlies losses.) his numbers by any stat reflect it. Hes been a hustler and defensive player but nothing he does on defense can compensate for how terribly he tanks his team offensively.

    Maybe the injuries hes had have taken away too much but he was never good offensively to begin with and is now worse. Meanwhile horrible black holes defensively like Bryn Forbes get minutes regularly for a playoff team and I am sure what he does offensively in small doses can help a playoff team. Yeah if you overplay him then hes going to get exploited and cause you to lose, but hes playable in the right situation. Current Winslow is not playable unless you want to win the tankathon.
    Last edited by SAGirl; 05-14-2021 at 09:12 AM.

  19. #19
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I can gloat because he's clearly a better player. You probably agree, but would prefer to be pedantic.
    Dieng could "clearly" be a better player, but not directly in the manner you chose. Being pedantic in this cir stance is not possible since I was merely holding you accountable for the misuse of the data presented. I know it's hard for people on this board to own up to being wrong, but it can be done. I've done it numerous times. , I was wrong about Vassell. It's okay.

    I do believe Dieng is better than Eubanks in certain situations. There's room for all three and Dieng seems to love it here. I haven't seen a player come in and have so good of a chemistry as fast as Dieng has had with his teammates. The certain situations I speak of is if the matchup calls for it. Just like how people complained about DJ's shot attempts last night in the first half, the situation called for it. He was taking what the defense was giving him, and it's usually his best shot. Unfortunately, they did not go in. Players will have their days where they should be taking a lot of shots because the defense is giving them looks. So for Dieng, he should be playing when there's not a strong big in the inside for the other team. There may have been games where this was applicable, but I point that to maybe his unfamiliarity with the offensive/ defensive schemes and he was not ready. I'm like 95% sure he'll be back next season, and he will be playing more.

  20. #20
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    I'm like 95% sure he'll be back next season, and he will be playing more.
    It's certainly possible, but I'm not going to claim I can tell by seeing him be friendly on the sidelines with his teammate... the vast majority of players behave appropriately during game time, and interact positively with teammates. But if he does leave, I would understand why.

  21. #21
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    The gap between Dieng and Eubanks...

    Casual fan: advanced stats don't mean anything, DeRozan should be higher, him score a lotta points!

    Flip side of the coin is a self-appointed "expert fan" that believes in player potential based on advanced stats, despite said player(s) never fulfilling said potential.

    lled.

  22. #22
    Chopper Ed Helicopter Jones's Avatar
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    So if DDR could play a lick of defense he'd be far and away our best player. As it is, his defense negates his superior offensive talent...basically what we all recognize already.

    This metric doesn't paint a very favorable picture of Lonnie, does it?






    And who did Patty pay for his defensive rating?

  23. #23
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    So if DDR could play a lick of defense he'd be far and away our best player. As it is, his defense negates his superior offensive talent...basically what we all recognize already.

    This metric doesn't paint a very favorable picture of Lonnie, does it?





    And who did Patty pay for his defensive rating?
    Lonnie didnt deserve any favorability until the last 4-5 games. He played scared until very recently. That defense is DeRozan level, though. Yikes.

  24. #24
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Good stuff, tbh

    The two best offensive players on the team are DeRozan and White and the two worst defenders are DeRozan and Walker -- so that checks out. Gay's numbers are a bit surprising. It seems like he's a better offensive player than defensive player. Then again, advanced stats have always graded his defense a lot higher than an eye-test would predict. That's somewhat understandable because his length can usually make up for his slow feet -- even though the slowness of his feet stands out.

  25. #25
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    There's no logical explanation for Eubanks over Dieng and if there wasn't a prearranged deal to extend him in the off season, I don't know why he'd bother re-signing with these senile idiots.

    The latter is a much more well rounded, high IQ player (it was refreshing to watch the final 8 minutes yesterday and see a group with decent versatility, who knew how to play the game and were doing so without agenda), two things they've developed an aversion to.

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