How can you motivate a team knowing you will loose? Hard to be a coach.
Despite how big a mismatch it appears on paper, you still have to play the game.
Look, the Spurs without a star beat the super team Heat. In fact, they could have done it twice!
Cavs were down 3-1 against the Dubs and still won. In fact, Cavs took the Dubs to game 6 on just James as the star.
The silver lining in all this is that the Spurs really need to worry about just one team in the West. Every other team isn't compe ive.
So you're saying you want Parker on Livingston?
The Warriors will not make the NBA finals next season. Book it.
I'll address the rest later. But even if you ignore everything else Durant brings to the table (he was only an mvp) ...
You DO get to add up efficiency like that! You add up possessions, that's what a game consists of. Have you seen the Locke Offensive Rating? Do you understand what it conveys with possession usage and points produced? It's not the ultimate advanced stat, after all it's only offense, but it starkly reveals how players and teams use possessions. It is remarkably illustrative and predictive even. It demonstrates early on in the season the why of Golden State's hot start: the individual players and the number of possessions that added up to a game, the Warriors produced so much more than other teams using the same number of possessions. Now they are adding a player who greatly outpaces the outgoing player, and his likely additional possessions will fall under his greater efficiency also.
And I only address Durant as taking the Barnes shots to take the obvious to absurdity in making a point. Even if that was ALL Durant would do, they are a better team for it. Because it's so easy to dismiss Durant seemingly as just another guy who has touch the single ball, I boil it down to that base level and the Warriors still come out on top
The reason why you can't add up possessions like that is because they aren't IID variables. Humans are not coins. Yes, those guys individually have high ratings, but together is a different story. How will a passive Durant score? Or how will a Curry that has to be mindful of Durant score? How will Thompson who's the third or fourth option stay in rhythm? It's like you're on two different extremes right. On one hand, you are talking about it in the most superficial way possible (How can you stop all those players?) On the other hand, you're reducing them to data.
It's neither of those things. It's not about players, and it's not about sterilized stats. It's about buckets. It's about how to get as many buckets as you can and how to keep your opponent from getting them. OKC adding Durant helps them get buckets, but again only marginally. Because Durant isn't just taking Barnes' touches. He's taking Steph's and Klay's, too. And those were already efficient, so they don't count. What he's doing is dumping a 38-percent shooter's percentage up by one. Even if it's up by five, that still makes very little difference in the context of a game.
To get that marginal increase, they've sacrificed their best rim-protectors and rebounders. So opponent efficiency should increase as well. And they're second-chance points should as well. Which one is really bigger? I guess we're disagreeing there. But that is just general talk. The Spurs should be much better at getting buckets this year with a superior offensive player at the five and an improved 5-10. So they could see an even bigger increase in efficiency than the average team. And if they force the Warriors into becoming the KD Show, they have plenty of experience with that.
Nah. You're addressing it this way because that's how your data addresses it. The more credit you give to Durant, the more he affects the other Warriors. And not all of those effects are going to be positive for their production or efficiency, especially in the first season.And I only address Durant as taking the Barnes shots to take the obvious to absurdity in making a point.
Nice discussion going on here.
First, I apologize for confusing Locke's Offensive Rating with Locke's POINTS ABOVE AVERAGE CREATED aka PAAC. It measures the use of possessions. I was tired and messed up, my mistake.
Read about it here: http://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonjaz...ction-of-paac/
And for further illumination there's a bunch of podcasts to try. That link, while old and about the 14-15 season, gives the basics.
I believe Kawhi ended the year as number three in the league, fwiw. The point is, the possessions taken by Durant will improve upon the points created previously by those possessions.
Awesome, awesome post.
I agree with all of this. It's sad that less than 10% of "experts" on NBA Twitter, ESPN ect.. are unable to think about the game this way.
Chinook, I apologize for my half way trolling debates & rude comments. Please accept my apology.
I personally agree and see everything above. Durant is spectacular, but he's spectacular at what the Warriors are already spectacular at. Obviously the right move was to pick him up, but both Curry and Thompson will suffer due to his presence, if the team itself does not (or does). I don't think Curry will be impacted much; he'll still have the ball most of the time and will get to jack any shot he wants. The guy who will be squeezed out is Klay Thompson.
Everyone's saying he will simply replace Barnes and those shots Barnes failed to make he will. Fine. But not forever. Because he'll be a very, very expensive spot up shooter. (Note, they probably weren't going to sign Barnes to a max, regardless of whether they got Durant.) The odd man out will be Thompson, because he won't be worth it. Instead they'll trade him for parts that make better sense -- a cheaper defensive wing, size, etc. , someone who can actually guard LeBron.
This won't happen this year. They'll probably ring this year, but whatever -- next summer they'll recognize they don't want most of their cap to get sucked up by Curry-Durant-Thompson when they are no longer getting the right kind of value out of one of them.
The question is when Thompson realizes this. He's a bright guy. At some point it will dawn on him.
Good post.
Every Big 3 in recent memory (Heatles / Cavs) had someone whose attempts get reduced. (Bosh, Love in these examples). It's one of the reasons back in their primes Manu played more and more with the bench until he became a bench player. Because Timmy and Tony were going to take a lot of the shots. Someone is always out, though few have the character that Manu did by going to the bench for the good of the team when he was an All-Star type talent.
As you say Klay will be the one who likely suffers. If they eventually get rid of Iggy after next season, Klay may stay but his "time" will also likely be when one of Durant and Curry are off the court.
What the acquistion of Durant does do is give them a 3rd elite scorer which is one more than they had and helpful if there are any injuries to Klay or Curry. Durant also can put the ball on the floor much better than I recall Barnes doing.
So I agree Iggy or Klay will have to go, but I think it will be Iggy (the older player) and Klay will likely stay in a changed role.
Some good points, but . . .
Rebounding - This only matters in two match-ups: Whichever of the Spurs/Clippers they get in the WCF and the Cavaliers, in the Finals, since those are the only teams good enough to potentially give them somewhat of a series.
Since the Spurs depth has been decimated and they'll be top heavy, the Warriors will likely lean as heavily on small ball as possible, in an attempt to get the Spurs to split up Aldridge-Gasol and limit Gasol's minutes period. Once Pop inevitably kowtows to this, the whole "destroy them in the post and on the glass" notion is out the window.
Offense - Sure, theirs can't get much more efficient, but until the perfect storm hit in the Finals, there was only 1 team capable of beating them in a series (Thunder) and obviously they're no longer capable.
The Spurs figure to be top heavy and 3 of the top 6 will be another year older and coming off of playing in the Olympics; any year could be the year they fall off a cliff. Given the likelihood of a lack of known quan ies, no one can say with any certainty that the bench will be improved.
"The KD show" was a part of the Thuner beating the Spurs twice and the one series they lost, arguably the biggest Spurs terrorist in the league missed the first two games.
Iggy will go because he's old, but the difference between Thompson and Manu is that Ginobili always took below market for his value. At least he never commanded max, as Thompson does and will. Does it make sense to pay essentially a back up/role player/bench guy max money? I hope they think so, but believe they'll be smart enough to ship him in a year or so.
I don't see the Finals as a perfect storm. It was LeBron James figuring them out. The Warriors remain just as vulnerable to him as they were then. Real question is whether the Dubs win in 2015 if all the Cavs are healthy and the King doesn't run out of gas.
It was partially James playing out of his mind, but it was also Curry clearly not being 100%; Bogut being injured and not playing in the Final three games; Green being suspended for game 5; and Iguodala hurting his back and not being 100% in the last game and a half.
I think the Thunder win in '15 had injuries not derailed them.
Cavs are the only team with a chance this year but that's only if they trade Love for some roster upgrades. Spurs might have a chance next year if they get a star pg like Cp3.
That being said big men often end up switching on Barnes who can't do anything. I expect different results from Durant. Switching just became that much more difficult.
Fortunately we'll get to see if Durant is a non-factor replacement player who won't matter because there's only one ball. Or if his arrival makes the Warriors unbeatable.
We'll be able to measure the results.
I was of the school of thought before free agency that the Spurs were incredibly close as contenders, hurt by poor performances by most and very, very poor coaching. But very fixable. Durant to GS however changed the landscape.
Pau most likely is a big improvement on Duncan's scoring, but not any better at switching on defense or around the rim. There's already the problem, huge problem, of Parker on defense. Utah is a lot better equipped to defend GS than San Antonio even without a Kawhi. A big who is an elite at the rim and everywhere else. Big guards with length who can switch. Spurs don't have that and have overcome a lot while hoping Pop decides to give heavy minutes to the best players, and doesn't Splitter players who can help.
Big time underdogs.
To me the argument for KD to GS is margin for error. They have such a gigantic gulf compared to other teams. While in a bubble, Chinook makes good points about the overarching theme of how KD fits, to me? It's about margin for error.
It's not about taking touches from Curry or Klay. It's about WHEN he takes touches from them. In games where Klay wasn't shooting well, GS might rely on Curry to score 40 or Green to score 20. Now? If Klay is cold? He simply gives way to a hotter Durant.
Game-to-game, GS now has margin for error that no one in the league comes close to.
Go here and listen to Episode 36 with Kevin Pelton:
https://audioboom.com/channel/lockedonnba
You can skip to 13:30 if you want, skipping a little Zaza and a lot of Portland talk. That will also skip a badly edited clothing commercial.
Basically, the math makes the dismissing people look like climate change deniers, maybe even like flat earthers.
Pelton's conservative projections last year had the Warriors at 60 wins. The projections are always more conservative, I don't remember anyone having the Spurs so high as they did.
This year? With Zaza, and without West included, just replacement player numbers?
69 wins projected.
Pelton speculated that adding West in the formula might crack 70.
Just give it a listen and maybe pick up something about possession use.
Well put.
Back in the days of our Big 3...we usually only needed one or two of them to be hot to win most games, at least in the regular season. It was okay if Tim was having an off game, because Tony and Manu usually would pick up the slack. Interject the names as you see fit.
Warriors now have the same benefit on steroids. To have an easy game against them, you have to hope for 2-3 of Curry, Durant, Thompson, AND/OR Green to have an off-night. Otherwise, you are in for a dogfight or a blowout. More often than not though...AT LEAST two of those guys will be clicking.
Gonna be an interesting season.
Uh, the odds I found are 4/5 to win the le. Isn't that 55.5% probability? Field doesn't look so good in that case.
They will win 74
That would be absolute poetic justice! It's definitely what I'm pulling for!!
This is arrogant as much it's absurd. There is no "math" to this. Not in the sense that is there is math about the Earth or the climate. Those are talking about how the Earth is, not how it will be given the changes. Stats don't have predictive power; that's one of the fundamental truths of statistics. Predictive probability is always a load of bull . The Warriors are favorites. I understand and accept that. But there is no math that can offer proof as to why Durant makes them unbeatable. Anyone who tells you so is lying or doesn't actually understand what the math they do says.
Pelton's conservative projections last year had the Warriors at 60 wins. The projections are always more conservative, I don't remember anyone having the Spurs so high as they did.this is ridiculous. If Pelton predicted the Warriors would win 60 games, and they won 73, then his model is . That's a 22-percent error. There isn't a viable model on Earth that will survive being that off. And of course, you can talk about all the unexpected things that happened that increased the win total. But a model doesn't get that benefit. If the weather models predict a bright sunny day, and we get a heatwave, no one over there is going to be patting themselves on the back.
I'll give you this, though: It certainly makes me feel better about the Murray selection to read that Pelton's models are that poor. , I'm predicting the Spurs are going to win one game this year. Pretty sure I'll be proven a genius.
If they're healthy we'll see how dominant they are.
Vegas has them at greater than 50% probability. I like those odds.
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