Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[hater]

We won’t know it’s a failure until the virus runs its course. There is valid concern other places in full lockdown won’t build immunity and will immediately e once the lock down is lifted.

agree but so far does not bode well

I would say Australia and Norway are examples to be impressed on

incredible healthcare systems and great timing/execution of shutdowns

there is a do entary on Amazon Prime on Australia getting ready for a pandemic. they were ready. we were not

but yeah the story still being written

[Chad.]

COVID-19: Recovered patients have partially reduced lung function
Chinese researchers have found fluid- or debris-filled sacs in the lungs of those who were infected by COVID-19. Scans suggest sustained organ damage
https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-recov...ion/a-52859671

Threat of long-term damage looms after patients recover from coronavirus, experts say
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...241953691.html

What Recovery From COVID-19 Looks Like
Outcomes vary greatly depending on age and other factors, a pulmonologist explains
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...19-looks-like/

Actually that miamiherald.com article was one of the ones I read earlier. It says only 9 out of the 137 survivors developed ARDS, so thankfully not too common but not a statistic to be completely ignored. I'm curious how that compares to similar illnesses like the flu, pneumonia, bronchitis, etc. because many illnesses carry a small chance of complications as we know some are so rare that we pretty much dismiss it unless we have a pre-existing condition. Idk how these COVID-19 rates compare though. Hopefully they're able to test some of these patients down the road in six months to a year's time to see if there's still any lingering after effects

I just try to be naturally weary of the media fear-mongering, only so much mainstream TV I can watch cause they're always peddling fear. I saw an article the other day that said "The coronavirus might be airborne HIV" but then when reading the article in depth it just said it's similar because it temporarily weakens the immune system gmafb

[Reck]

LOL

Even if true, there's no way people will adhere to this. I wouldn't. I would rather die than to stay at home a prisoner for 2 years.

[midnightpulp]

Except it is.

As in having a debate? Sure, but if you're going to apply the Sweden strategy, it has to be very region specific and not a broad implementation. A despite all the handwaves and selective interpretation of the data, Sweden is not succeeding. I saw this graph. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/c...TA+NOR+SWE+GBR you posted.

So Sweden is doing marginally better than the hardest hit regions in Europe, one of which did try the non-lockdown strategy (UK) early on. That isn't a "success." Also, Sweden's bending is skewed by the rendering the graph as a rolling 7 day average. 7 day averages are great for showing trends, but in Sweden's case it's a "cheat" because they had 3 straight days of averaging 15 deaths per day after a 5 day period of averaging about 80. A decline like that just doesn't make sense given the trends in every other country, so it stands to reason Sweden's 3 day "success" period was probably due to lax reporting. Now they're back over 100 again. And there will be more to come as they just had their peak number of daily cases less than a week ago.

Compare California to Sweden. California has 5x the population density, 4x as many people, bigger cities, more international travel to and from, and their deaths per million is 19 vs. Sweden's 102. There's just many more cons than pros with the Sweden strategy.

[ChumpDumper]

LOL

Even if true, there's no way people will adhere to this. I wouldn't. I would rather die than to stay at home a prisoner for 2 years.

The authors don’t endorse a particular path forward

Thanks, assholes.

[TSA]

As in having a debate? Sure, but if you're going to apply the Sweden strategy, it has to be very region specific and not a broad implementation. A despite all the handwaves and selective interpretation of the data, Sweden is not succeeding. I saw this graph. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/c...TA+NOR+SWE+GBR you posted.

So Sweden is doing marginally better than the hardest hit regions in Europe, one of which did try the non-lockdown strategy (UK) early on. That isn't a "success." Also, Sweden's bending is skewed by the rendering the graph as a rolling 7 day average. 7 day averages are great for showing trends, but in Sweden's case it's a "cheat" because they had 3 straight days of averaging 15 deaths per day after a 5 day period of averaging about 80. A decline like that just doesn't make sense given the trends in every other country, so it stands to reason Sweden's 3 day "success" period was probably due to lax reporting. Now they're back over 100 again. And there will be more to come as they just had their peak number of daily cases less than a week ago.

Compare California to Sweden. California has 5x the population density, 4x as many people, bigger cities, more international travel to and from, and their deaths per million is 19 vs. Sweden's 102. There's just many more cons than pros with the Sweden strategy.

Yes, as in having a debate. RandomGuy stated there is nothing really to debate. We won’t know Sweden took the wrong approach until the virus runs its course. They may be paying a higher price in the short term and we’ll have to see if their approach was correct in the long term.

I pulled that graph from this article. Found it to be a good read.

https://unherd.com/2020/04/jury-stil...irus-strategy/

[midnightpulp]

We won’t know it’s a failure until the virus runs its course. There is valid concern other places in full lockdown won’t build immunity and will immediately e once the lock down is lifted.

Going for herd immunity isn't wise until we have a proven and effective anti-viral treatment. As far as we know right now, this thing hits harder than the flu. During the 2018-19 flu season, there were 18K hospitalizations due to flu in NY over a 6 month period. New York already had 42K Covid-19 hospitalizations. This is where someone might bring up the from/with argument, and that the stats are skewed because of this. But this is dumb. Hypertension, diabetes, COPD, etc are livable conditions that rarely turn into an acute life threatening situation just like that. Covid is exacerbating those conditions to life threatening. Also, the from/with distinction is applied to the flu. It also turns those illness into severe situations that require hospitalization.

It would also take a decade to build up herd immunity in a place like the US, with its spread out population (this is also why I never believed the 2.2 million dead scenarios in a year or whatever. This virus moves fast, but you have to constantly be meeting and infecting new people. Most people basically stay in their social and family circles much of the time) The marginal herd immunity we have for the flu happened over decades. Best COA is to minimize deaths until we have a proven anti-viral and vaccine.

[apalisoc_9]

LOL

Even if true, there's no way people will adhere to this. I wouldn't. I would rather die than to stay at home a prisoner for 2 years.

Relax.

No one is saying to quarantine yourself for 2 years.

What we won't have for two years will likely be mass congregations. Plus a general 6 feet away from each other rule will probably in place for a long time.

None of that means we can't go back to work and do stuff.

Again, the long term solution will likely be similiar to the first restrictions implemented in most countries...

- No congregation of 100
- Social distancing
- Wash hands etc.

I believe we all still could implement these more lenient rules with everything opening up. We have to open up at some point because to my knowledge even certain non emergency medical services like elective surgery and diagnostic testing are not available at this point. These can open up.

Maybe people would have to find new hobbies and ways to enjoy their time. Instead of congregating in bars, they can go fishing or something.

[baseline bum]

Lots of death today, sadly. 2,200 dead.

So much for Easter being the peak. Of course the real peaks will come next month after the brilliant team of Trump and Larry Kudlow assure us everything will be fine when the country reopens.

[Reck]

Relax.

No one is saying to quarantine yourself for 2 years.

What we won't have for two years will likely be mass congregations. Plus a general 6 feet away from each other rule will probably in place for a long time.

None of that means we can't go back to work and do stuff.

Again, the long term solution will likely be similiar to the first restrictions implemented in most countries...

- No congregation of 100
- Social distancing
- Wash hands etc.

I believe we all still could implement these more lenient rules with everything opening up. We have to open up at some point because to my knowledge even certain non emergency medical services like elective surgery and diagnostic testing are not available at this point. These can open up.

Maybe people would have to find new hobbies and ways to enjoy their time. Instead of congregating in bars, they can go fishing or something.

None of that is practical. lol

When people go back to work, millions of people will cross paths on a hourly basis. Or do you think people will just take turns getting to work in batches?

If businesses dont start opening within 3 to 4 months, this country will be worth less than a penny.

[midnightpulp]

Yes, as in having a debate. RandomGuy stated there is nothing really to debate. We won’t know Sweden took the wrong approach until the virus runs its course. They may be paying a higher price in the short term and we’ll have to see if their approach was correct in the long term.

I pulled that graph from this article. Found it to be a good read.

https://unherd.com/2020/04/jury-stil...irus-strategy/

But Sweden has some things in its favor that we don't (at a country scale) in order to employ the herd immunity strategy. 33x less the population (if it takes Sweden a year to achieve herd immunity, it could take us a decade), 50 percent of their population already work from home, more single person households, only 1 city with over a million people. Trying to do herd immunity in the US would likely have us paying both the short term and long term prices. We just have too many people to achieve it over a year and a half until the vaccine hopefully arrives. We might be able to do it region specific. I see no reasons why places like Utah and rural areas can't carefully try the strategy. But New York, Chicago, LA, Houston, etc shouldn't be declared "open for business" anytime soon. The big cities might have to do like Singapore and alternate being relaxed and strict as the new case count dictates.

[apalisoc_9]

Going for herd immunity isn't wise until we have a proven and effective anti-viral treatment. As far as we know right now, this thing hits harder than the flu. During the 2018-19 flu season, there were 18K hospitalizations due to flu in NY over a 6 month period. New York already had 42K Covid-19 hospitalizations. This is where someone might bring up the from/with argument, and that the stats are skewed because of this. But this is dumb. Hypertension, diabetes, COPD, etc are livable conditions that rarely turn into an acute life threatening situation just like that. Covid is exacerbating those conditions to life threatening. Also, the from/with distinction is applied to the flu. It also turns those illness into severe situations that require hospitalization.

It would also take a decade to build up herd immunity in a place like the US, with its spread out population (this is also why I never believed the 2.2 million dead scenarios in a year or whatever. This virus moves fast, but you have to constantly be meeting and infecting new people. Most people basically stay in their social and family circles much of the time) The marginal herd immunity we have for the flu happened over decades. Best COA is to minimize deaths until we have a proven anti-viral and vaccine.

A much larger medical workforce/ better medical system can allow for a less aggressive herd immunity strategy. I'm actually curious if there is any potential at all for current students who are a year or two away from graduating to be fast tracked into the workforce. I'm unsure of the numbers, but certain Asian countries have implemented a somewhat similiar strategy.

A reliable anti-viral drug would take a year minimum and that would be a drug without reliable safety literature. Who would want to take that? We're already seeing studies and reports of Trumps favorite drug causing massive side effects and in many cases deaths.

In any case moving forward, countries should really start investing more on their medical personnel. Perhaps offer subsidiy for students taking nursing?

[apalisoc_9]

None of that is practical. lol

When people go back to work, millions of people will cross paths on a hourly basis. Or do you think people will just take turns getting to work in batches?

If businesses dont start opening within 3 to 4 months, this country will be worth less than a penny.

It was implemented the first month in most countries when business were still open. I can't see why it's not implemented for an additional 5-6 months.

It's impossible to think of practicallity with a pandemic around the corner. We need to make sacrificies.

[Winehole23]

Lots of death today, sadly. 2,200 dead.

Did Trump acknowledge the deaths? Did he offer empathy to the bereaved or encouragement to the rest of us?

No.

He rants and raves, blames others and s his pants daily like he isn't the most powerful public official in the world.

[apalisoc_9]

Did Trump acknowledge the deaths? Did he offer empathy to the bereaved or encouragement to the rest of us?

No.

He rants and raves, blames others and s his pants daily like he isn't the most powerful public official in the world.

Please...If not for trumps efforts we would be at double the death count.

















Lol.

[Reck]

So much for Easter being the peak. Of course the real peaks will come next month after the brilliant team of Trump and Larry Kudlow assure us everything will be fine when the country reopens.

No one believed that. When the Trumpsters said that most of the states haven't even started getting hit yet.

We've been in a plateau state here for almost a week now. Lots of people still dying. Less cases, about same deaths every day.

[apalisoc_9]

No one believed that. When the Trumpsters said that most of the states haven't even started getting hit yet.

We've been in a plateau state here for almost a week now. Lots of people still dying. Less cases, about same deaths every day.

I think transmission was widespread already back when trump and his cheerleaders were calling it a hoax.

Just no widspread testing

[baseline bum]

I think transmission was widespread already back when trump and his cheerleaders were calling it a hoax.

I mean that's pretty obvious from the growth in New York and New Orleans. Surprised we haven't gotten hammered yet from all the heads at South Padre.

[slick'81]

Soo any good news for anyone in the us? Guess not. This isnt looking good at all

[Reck]

Does this got think he's not burning people out with these 3 hour pressers every day?

They're hurting him more than helping. Thanks?

[TimDunkem]

I mean that's pretty obvious from the growth in New York and New Orleans. Surprised we haven't gotten hammered yet from all the heads at South Padre.

Seems this illness takes awhile from known infection to death in some cases. We might see some of those deaths next month.

[slick'81]

Does this got think he's not burning people out with these 3 hour pressers every day?

They're hurting him more than helping. Thanks?

Hes lost and in over his head. He is literally melting down in front of our eyes, but he gets off on it because of the POWER

[TimDunkem]

Trump threatening to storm off like a little whiney because he can't handle simple questions.

[Winehole23]

The only plausible suggestion I've heard is not that Trump can overrule business closings and shelter in place orders -- he can't -- but that the US Code gives him power to quarantine a whole state.

If that's true, and if Trump actually did it, he could literally starve the states targeted. In that instance he could make the lifting of the quarantine conditional upon states and municipalities reopening for business and lifting shelter in place orders.

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/speci...gulations.html

[Winehole23]

Sounds like we might be getting close to a "bow to Zod" moment.