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  1. #1
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I was thinking of a new approach to project rotations next year, and while doing that, I noticed a pattern across many teams with their regular line-ups.

    Here's what I observed:

    Teams generally have a 10-deep rotation.

    They generally give high minutes to five players. Approx. greater than 29 minutes each.
    They give medium minutes to two players. Approx. 24 - 26 minutes each.
    They give low minutes to three players. Approx. less than 21 minutes each.


    Currently, this is how it applies to the Spurs:

    High (>29 mpg)
    DeMar
    Dejounte
    Poeltl
    Walker
    Keldon

    Medium (24-26 mpg)
    White
    Mills

    Low (<21 mpg)
    Vassell
    Aldridge
    Gay

    So, using this approach and forgetting about positions, try to project next season's rotation by using the same criteria.

    My 2021-2022 Five, Two, and Three:

    High (>29 mpg)
    Dejounte
    Poeltl
    White
    Vassell
    Keldon

    Medium (24-26 mpg)
    Lonnie
    Luka

    Low (<21 mpg)
    KBD
    Tre
    Eubanks or back-up center

    In my opinion,

    -Vassell deserves a promotion next year and needs to be rewarded with more minutes.
    -Lonnie gets demoted to medium in favor of White + Vassell.
    -It seems to me the only way to give a promotion to high to Vassell would be to let DeMar go. Sure, he can move into the medium category next season, but I think he plays well enough to be top five in minutes.
    -My preference is that Lonnie is traded for another rotational player who takes medium minutes, but it's unclear to me who that would be right now.

    Performing this exercise kind of helps see how we have no room to keep the current vets for next year, especially guys like Rudy and Mills. Otherwise, if they are kept, where would you put them in your "Five, Two, and Three"?

    For those who want to add a player from free agency or draft, please be realistic about it. For example, Collins being placed in your "Five, Two, and Three" should mean one or a couple current players are not with the team anymore. Atlanta's GM has explicitly said he would not let Collins go for nothing.
    Last edited by Dejounte; 03-05-2021 at 11:49 AM.

  2. #2
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    High:
    DJ
    Vassell
    Keldon
    Bogdon
    Collins

    Mid:
    Poeltl
    Lonnie

    Low:
    Patty
    LMA
    KBD
    Gone are White and Luka

  3. #3
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    DJ/White/Keldon/Luka/Jakob starting line up and high minutes getters

    Jones/Vassell/Walker as the first 3 off the bench. Good mix of shot creation and defense with Jones and Vassell- I expect Lonnie in a featured bench role, hiding him on the worst offensive wing or guard looks like the player we drafted him to be with another year of development as well.

    Wagner/Lyles for the last 2 spots. Maybe Eubanks or a vet addition for backup center. Use the last rotation spot situationally. I like Lyles to come back and continue on the development of the player weve seen when he gets consistent burn. He and a player like Wagner both provide versatility and switchability, theyre crafty shot creators who will give end of bench players a lot of trouble. If not Wagner- insert whatever other mid first round pick you have your eye on.

    White will be 27 next year and Dejounte has shown aside from some limited hiccups he is a capable leader on offense. Its time to give them the reins. Luka has answered the biggest question about his development- defense, by exceeding all possible expectations. Hes bodied Julius Randle, kept up with guards, soared in for rebounds, and already shown massive improvement in his anticipation in help defense situations. The starting line up here is modern, switchable, rangey, athletic, long. The bench is capable. We might have some additions here and there I cant account for but this outline should be their plan going forward. John Collins is a nice player but hes a system player- dont give him a max. Not even in the Kawhi system player way, but in the, I cant create my own shot and have to generate looks through off ball movement and lobs way.

    Stay the course of the youth movement next year. Vet additions are welcome, Patty on a cheap deal to be player coach and occasional sub like Matt Bonner is fine. Most importantly- keep flexibility for 2023 where we pursue Embiid or Jokic and create the next spurs dynasty.
    Last edited by PrimeMinister; 03-05-2021 at 11:30 AM.

  4. #4
    Believe.
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    DJM, White, DDR, KJ, Jakob

    Patty, LW4, DV, Luka, Lyles

    TJ, KBD, Eubanks, 1st Rd

    Starters playing 29-34 MPG
    Sixth man playing 25-29 MPG
    7th & 8th man 18-22 MPG
    9th man 15-20 MPG
    10th man 8-15 MPG
    11th-14th players at 0-8 MPG

    LMA, Gay and QW are not on roster next season.

  5. #5
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    DJM, White, DDR, KJ, Jakob

    Patty, LW4, DV, Luka, Lyles

    TJ, KBD, Eubanks, 1st Rd

    Starters playing 29-34 MPG
    Sixth man playing 25-29 MPG
    7th & 8th man 18-22 MPG
    9th man 15-20 MPG
    10th man 8-15 MPG
    11th-14th players at 0-8 MPG

    LMA, Gay and QW are not on roster next season.
    This isn't how you play the game lmao

    I had already let PrimeMinister slide with his five, three, two.

    Thanks KobesAchilles for following directions.

  6. #6
    Starter off the bench Uriel's Avatar
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    I was thinking of a new approach to project rotations next year, and while doing that, I noticed a pattern across many teams with their regular line-ups.

    Here's what I observed:

    Teams generally have a 10-deep rotation.

    They generally give high minutes to five players. Approx. greater than 29 minutes each.
    They give medium minutes to two players. Approx. 24 - 26 minutes each.
    They give low minutes to three players. Approx. less than 21 minutes each.


    Currently, this is how it applies to the Spurs:

    High (>29 mpg)
    DeMar
    Dejounte
    Poeltl
    Walker
    Keldon

    Medium (24-26 mpg)
    White
    Mills

    Low (<21 mpg)
    Vassell
    Aldridge
    Gay

    So, using this approach and forgetting about positions, try to project next season's rotation by using the same criteria.

    My 2021-2022 Five, Two, and Three:

    High (>29 mpg)
    Dejounte
    Poeltl
    White
    Vassell
    Keldon

    Medium (24-26 mpg)
    Lonnie
    Luka

    Low (<21 mpg)
    KBD
    Tre
    Eubanks or back-up center

    In my opinion,

    -Vassell deserves a promotion next year and needs to be rewarded with more minutes.
    -Lonnie gets demoted to medium in favor of White + Vassell.
    -It seems to me the only way to give a promotion to high to Vassell would be to let DeMar go. Sure, he can move into the medium category next season, but I think he plays well enough to be top five in minutes.
    -My preference is that Lonnie is traded for another rotational player who takes medium minutes, but it's unclear to me who that would be right now.

    Performing this exercise kind of helps see how we have no room to keep the current vets for next year, especially guys like Rudy and Mills. Otherwise, if they are kept, where would you put them in your "Five, Two, and Three"?

    For those who want to add a player from free agency or draft, please be realistic about it. For example, Collins being placed in your "Five, Two, and Three" should mean one or a couple current players are not with the team anymore. Atlanta's GM has explicitly said he would not let Collins go for nothing.
    I would just switch Walker and White, and maybe Gay and Mills. The rest looks good to me.

  7. #7
    Believe.
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    High:
    Dejounte
    White
    Keldon
    Luka
    Poeltl

    Medium:
    Vassell (the most minutes allowed in the "medium" category)
    DeMar (probably wishful thinking that he loves it here and is willing to play less minutes as a 2nd unit facilitator to extend his career)

    Low:
    Draft: Defensive and Mobile 4/5
    Lonnie
    Jones

  8. #8
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    High:
    Dejounte
    White
    Keldon
    Luka
    Poeltl

    Medium:
    Vassell (the most minutes allowed in the "medium" category)
    DeMar (probably wishful thinking that he loves it here and is willing to play less minutes as a 2nd unit facilitator to extend his career)

    Low:
    Draft: Defensive and Mobile 4/5
    Lonnie
    Jones
    Major demotion for Lonnie, huh? Wonder how he would take that going into free agency...

  9. #9
    Veteran spurs1990's Avatar
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    If we're punting on DeRozan, I say focus on the in-house young guys and grab fillers in FA.

    My starters at 30 min:
    Murray
    White
    Johnson
    Samanic (his 4-game track heavily factored)
    Poetle

    First two off bench:
    Walker (designated scorer)
    Vassell

    Remaining mins
    Mills (if Gregg is here, Mills is here)
    Gay (2nd vet and market value would be reasonable)
    Lyles

    Others carrying over for development- Jones, Eubanks, plus 2021 1st rounder

    2-way - KBD

    Cheap (<$10m) Vets to chase in FA
    Under age 30 - Cauley-Stein C, Biyombo C, Myers Leonard
    Older vets - JJ Red G, Danny Green G, Batum F

    The vet moves up into the 10 rotation- replacing a Gay or a Lyles (Mills at age 33 is playing).

    Based primarily on chemistry and system, I'd still expect a play-in contention (7-10th seed) so no re-build imo.

  10. #10
    Believe.
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    Major demotion for Lonnie, huh? Wonder how he would take that going into free agency...
    Well, he needs to get his together. I don't see him taking higher minutes than the other people listed (I'm assuming White comes back healthy). Losing DeMar would free up a ton of minutes, but I don't see Lonnie being as effective without a good facilitator feeding him. I think Luka playing well would push some 3s out from playing the 4 as much (which will limit minutes for them as well). White coming back and Vassell getting promoted leaves someone out and I think that would be Lonnie.

    I would be willing to give Jones' minutes to Lonnie to bump him to "medium", but that would change your 5-2-3 to a 5-3-1 and that wasn't the game.

    Edit: If I could give an even 30 minutes to my top 8 players, I would.

  11. #11
    WBomb Walton Buys Off Me's Avatar
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    Tight playoff game on the road in the fourth quarter;

    DeRozan
    White
    Murray
    Johnson
    Mills/Poetl depending on opponent’s FC size

  12. #12
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Well, he needs to get his together. I don't see him taking higher minutes than the other people listed (I'm assuming White comes back healthy). Losing DeMar would free up a ton of minutes, but I don't see Lonnie being as effective without a good facilitator feeding him. I think Luka playing well would push some 3s out from playing the 4 as much (which will limit minutes for them as well). White coming back and Vassell getting promoted leaves someone out and I think that would be Lonnie.

    I would be willing to give Jones' minutes to Lonnie to bump him to "medium", but that would change your 5-2-3 to a 5-3-1 and that wasn't the game.

    Edit: If I could give an even 30 minutes to my top 8 players, I would.
    Oh, trust me. Not opposed to it. Just wanted to hear your thoughts and to open discussion about Lonnie's future.


    Also, seems people are predicting Luka to make the leap over Vassell in minutes. Seems fair, I think we need two bigs to log heavy minutes. Vassell can come in as a utility guy. I had the same idea the following year after next, I don't know if Pop will plug Luka quickly like that. Well, he did it this season for Keldon... So we'll see.

  13. #13
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    High (>29 mpg)
    Dejounte
    Poeltl or a new big
    White
    Derozan
    Keldon

    Medium (24-26 mpg)
    Lonnie
    Poetl or a new big
    Vassell

    Low (<21 mpg)
    Luka
    KBD
    Tre
    rookie

    Not easy to do because we don't know what spurs will do in the free agency, maybe they will not sign someone but they could be involving in a trade with all their cap space.

  14. #14
    Believe. Em-City's Avatar
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    I reckon demar stays on a 2 year deal, 2nd yrar being a player option.
    If we sign Collins, poeltl will drop to mid level.

    High: Murray, white, demar, Keldon, poeltl
    mid: vassell+ new big
    Low: mills, LonniE luka

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