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It's a more likely and higher % chance than last year.
The last two years, our top4 odds were 7.2% and 9.4%. This year, they’re 20.2%.
It's a more likely and higher % chance than last year.
Last edited by rascal; 05-04-2022 at 07:57 PM.
Dynamic Lottery Odds
The Spurs' odds to move up are known and fixed. To increase suspense, however, the NBA will reveal the draft order one team at a time - starting with pick 14. As information is revealed, our odds will shift since the set of possible outcomes becomes smaller and smaller. For example, if Cleveland jumps into the top 4, that will negatively impact the Spurs' chances as only three spots would remain. Once Cleveland is (hopefully) announced as the 14th pick, we can exclude those possible outcomes from the calculation, giving the Spurs a slightly greater chance. I created a lottery simulation to try and understand how our odds will change throughout the broadcast. Here are my findings after 1B iterations:
Pick Base Odds Cleveland Picks 14th Charlotte Picks 13th LAC/OKC Picks 12th New York Picks 11th Washington Picks 10th 1 4.5% 4.53% 4.59% 4.68% 4.81% 5.03% 2 4.83% 4.87% 4.94% 5.04% 5.20% 5.44% 3 5.23% 5.27% 5.35% 5.48% 5.66% 5.96% 4 5.71% 5.76% 5.86% 6.02% 6.24% 6.61% 5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9 50.72% 51.98% 54.61% 58.91% 65.37% 76.96% 10 25.90% 24.92% 22.76% 18.96% 12.71% 0% 11 3.01% 2.61% 1.86% 0.90% 0% 0% 12 0.09% 0.06% 0.03% 0% 0% 0% 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Top 4 20.28% 20.43% 20.74% 21.23% 21.91% 23.04% Scenario Likelihood N/A 97.58% 92.87% 86.10% 77.58% 65.90%
If teams behind us start jumping, it hurts our chances but doesn't eliminate us altogether.
Pick Base Odds Exactly 1 Team Behind Jumps 2 Teams Behind Jumps 3 Teams Behind Jump 1 4.5% 3.61% 2.32% 1.13% 2 4.83% 3.80% 2.35% 1.08% 3 5.23% 3.99% 2.38% 1.08% 4 5.71% 4.17% 2.38% 1.03% 5 0% 0% 0% 0% 6 0% 0% 0% 0% 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 9 50.72% 0% 0% 0% 10 25.90% 84.43 0% 0% 11 3.01% 0% 90.57% 0% 12 0.09% 0% 0% 95.69% 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 14 0% 0% 0% 0% Top 4 20.28% 15.57% 9.43% 4.31% Scenario Likelihood N/A 30.67% 3.32% 0.09%
Thanks!
This is neat. Have you run it in a world where everyone behind us stays behind us?
That's on there, it's the "Washington Picks 10th" scenario.
Nice analysis seventyniner
No, don't give me credit. That should go to RedAzSa.
I was just explaining that the scenario asked about was already in there.
The commissioner should punish Rockets, Thunder, Magic and Detroit for blatant tanking, and reward the Spurs for trying to get to the playoffs and making it fun for the fans to watch every single year. It’d send the right message.
Imagine if you get bonus balls to get the 10th or 9th seed and not getting in? That would be good.
The only way to truly stop this is to give each lottery team one ping pong ball, absolutely flat odds. There would be no incentive to do multiple season long tanks like OKC. You’re ty for 3 years in a row, and pick like 14,9,11.
4th pick on my 1st try.
I gave it a whirl and came up 10
I did it once more and while the Spurs stayed at 9, OKC got picks 1 & 2.
How about if your team winds up in the bottom 5 for two consecutive seasons, the whole franchise gets moved to Vancouver. That would make owners a lot less likely to go along with tanking.
That's obviously tonge in cheek, but I definitely think there should be some re-balancing of ping pong balls away from teams who wind up with bottom-5 records two years in a row. It should be tougher to get Top-5 picks two years in a row (except through trades). Not impossible, but less automatic.
Even after re-balancing the odds, the system still favors tanking a little too much. I know I favored the Spurs tanking some games, but that's because the system makes it a legit strategy. Make it less appealing, and it won't happen as much.
Good for you! I forgot that they run the picks from worst to first. (Actually, I never even paid attention to that.) I had looked at this a month or so ago, near the end of the regular season, but I did it from front to back. And that makes a HUGE difference. This way makes a lot more sense.
Wish they went back to that, that was what the original draft lottery was. Immediately got rid of the blatant tanking like Houston did to get Sampson and Olajuwon.
Last edited by baseline bum; 05-06-2022 at 06:59 AM.
Obligatory, "So you're saying I have a chance" GIF goes here
Same.4th pick on my 1st try.
Seems the Tank-A-Thon wheel is either setting us all up for immense disappointment or it is tapped into the cosmic ether / chisme
9 days until Lottery-time!
A week before the draft es!! Got #3 overall on first try. I’m smelling Seattle-trio
2/10 rolls got spurs #1
And with the 10th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the San Antonio Spurs select…
Got Chet on the first simulation. Ain't never been wrong...
over the last week, after numerous simulations, the mean is just under nine.
An un-scouted 6’4 guard (with shoes) from the University of Alaska’s feeder school Nunavut College.
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