Great analysis of Kai:
https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/c...tm_name=iossmf
[OC] Kai Jones Is A Project Not Worth Taking
I’ve written 3 posts in the past few weeks -- the first advocating against Davion Mitc , and the next in favor of Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba. I was often clear in the comments that I’m not dogmatic about my rankings. If Sengun/Garuba go 10 spots lower or Davion Mitc 20+ spots higher than I think, it’s really no skin off my back. There are no certainties in the draft, and you shouldn’t get too worked up about anything.
I write this to say that I do not feel this way about Kai Jones. **Jones across many mocks is pegged to go in the lottery/mid-first, and I think this would be a disaster.** Jones was a liability as a sop re, and would need essentially unprecedented growth to warrant a selection that high. I have him as a second rounder, and even then it is difficult to value the pick as he won't receive the playing time he needs to develop.
I will first cover Jones’ overall game. I will then lay out his most direct college statistical comparisons. I will end by comparing his college production to similarly styled current NBA bigs.
**Jones’ Game**
First, the physicals:
||Jones|Average NBA Center|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Height|6'10|6'10|
|Reach|9'2.5|9'2|
|Weight|221|250|
|Wingspan|7'1.75|7'3.5|
Jones has typical measurements for an NBA big man, with only shorter arms and a calorie deficit. But, with the league getting smaller, this is an excellent combine showing.
He did not test athletically, but he’s clearly a superior athlete. He glides to the rim effortlessly for jams, and projects to have some [impressive transition finishes](
https://streamable.com/sawdba). Jones also moves well side to side, evidenced by this [swat of Cade Cunningham](
https://streamable.com/888q2f) (who himself was a pretty paltry and uncreative interior scorer but that’s for another post). In terms of god given gifts, Jones is big, with the high end athleticism needed to succeed at the next level.
In terms of production, he’s an advanced finisher, putting home 75% of rim attempts ([hoopmath](
http://hoop-math.com/Texas2021.php)). He finished the season with a 65 TS%, which would be even higher if he did not enjoy the mid-range J so much. Moreover, these were not often easy lobs. On the brilliantly constructed Texas basketball team, Jones played the 5 next to Greg Brown, or the 4 next to old school big Jericho Sims (this miserable hydra was saved by a talented triumvirate of upperclassman guard play). Adapting to this spacing, Jones often worked from the perimeter, demonstrating the ability to [put the ball on the floor](
https://streamable.com/a5qin2), and [finish with grace](
https://streamable.com/1zamjt).
It’s easy to see the flashes of an inside out defender with a somewhat high offensive a en. He also has only been playing basketball for 5 or 6 years, giving hope for some untapped talent. In general, he is raw, but has great size, athleticism, and has shown flashes of talent that has convinced many he is a lottery pick.
**My Issues**
My largest issue with Jones is that he’s discussed as if he is a limitless 18 year old. He’s a 20.5 year old sop re who started one game behind two generally unimpressive bigs (I can’t stress how not-good Greg Brown is at basketball). If Jones goes in the lottery, **he will be the first non-freshman since Dion Waiters to play under 25 minutes and still be drafted top 14.** Usually, when guys are in a class of their own, it can be really good or really bad. When you’re in a class of two with Dion Waiters, well it’s not great.
**Even in those limited minutes, he was also terribly unproductive**. He almost always shared the floor with Brown or Sims which could depress his block/rebound numbers, but neither of those guys are exactly Hakeem Olajuwon let alone Joel Pryzbilla. **To demonstrate just how perilous his college company is, below are some notable forwards and centers who in their sop re year charted similar BLK/REB rates to Kai Jones**. I’ve included those player’s assist/turnover rates to paint a picture of their overall production, in addition to made three point field goals. These stats are somewhat cherry-picked (as all are), but should articulate the kind of role Jones will ostensibly play at the next level -- **floor spacer, rebounder, shot blocker, and facilitator**. (I generally use rates as Jones played so little, and it's simply a better metric).
|Player|3PT FGs|3PT%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Ben Bentil|52|33%|12.4|3.1|8|9.3|
|Luke Kornet|50|40%|9.8|5.5|10.9|14.6|
|Tyler Lydon|49|39%|13.7|4.7|10.8|13.6|
|Killian Tillie|45|48%|12.9|4.2|11.5|14.1|
|Dylan Windler|37|37%|12.5|3.3|9.6|12.5|
|**Kai Jones**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**|**4.2**|**5.4**|** 16.8**|
Jones rebounded and blocked shots on comparable levels to a group of under-athletic or undersized 4s and 5s. **This is a guy with great measurements for a center and uber athleticism, yet had a worse block rate than Tyler Lydon.** Not only that, but he made dramatically fewer three pointers than this crop, with by far the worst AST% and highest TO rate. There’s a reason he could not get minutes over Brown and Sims -- he is not good at basketball.
To be clear, this is not simply statistics. This is all readily available in the film:
I’m not going to linger on basic IQ mistakes that every college player makes ([like this](
https://streamable.com/gm4bhs) [or this](
https://streamable.com/rq8xkl)), but some are day 1 basketball rules such as [do not immediately start dribbling upcourt when you get a rebound](
https://streamable.com/pbv44s). There’s also instances of not really understanding [the dimensions of the floor](
https://streamable.com/h56wpo), and just general clumsiness[ 1](
https://streamable.com/4xeg8a), [2](
https://streamable.com/oi3g6d), [3](
https://streamable.com/6qsqbt).
This is young basketball stuff, and his basketball years are still quite green. The problem is that he is physically a man, but lacks control over his body. We give 18 year olds a break because they are still developing. It is hard to gives Jones the same leash.
Quite of this clumsiness could of course be salvaged by a high motor, which he totally lacks. Here is the [quintessential Kai Jones play](
https://streamable.com/xbkxg1) \-- **he gives up position to go for a steal, falls to the ground, and then just kinda stops playing basketball.** These are often physical plays, but he routinely shows zero fight and less strength as he routinely gets wiped out of post position [1](
https://streamable.com/tbcfoj) [2](
https://streamable.com/9x01sk) [3](
https://streamable.com/tmnjlw) [4](
https://streamable.com/jjmndo) [5](
https://streamable.com/lna6c1) [6](
https://streamable.com/20r0wb). You simply can't explain someone like Jones contributing like Killian Tillie on defense unless they simply don't play hard. These clips are also key to anyone waving away his low rebound/block figures due to playing with other bigs - **they were on the floor because Jones was so hopeless guarding the post or defending the rim.**
**Current NBA Players College Production**
Here I’ve tallied a list of 4/5s to whom Jones would likely play a similar role -- generally thinner bigs with perimeter skills and flexible defense -- and I've slapped together their college numbers upon being drafted (besides Larry Nance) to compare. These are absolutely not perfect comps, but more aim for the role Jones might play in the NBA (sorted by PTS/40):
|Player|Age|PTS/40|3PT FGs|3Pt%|REB%|BLK%|AST%|TO%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|John Collins|19.7|28.8|1|0|21.1|6.6|4.5|11.1|
|Kelly Olynyk|22.1|27|9|30%|17.4|5.1|15.1|15.4|
|Zach Collins|19.6|23.2|10|47%|18.4|9.8|4.4|17.8|
|Mike Muscala|20|21.5|4|36%|15.5|8.1|12.2|11.7|
|Lauri Markkannen|20.1|20.2|69|42%|14|1.8|5.6|8.1|
|Jaren Jackson Jr.|18.7|20|38|39%|15|14.3|9.3|17.4|
|Christian Wood|19.8|19.3|25|28%|17|8.2|9.2|14.7|
|Chris Boucher|23.5|18.7|39|34%|16.5|11.8|2.9|10.5|
|Nic Claxton|20.5|16.4|18|28%|14.9|8|12.2|14.7|
|**Kai Jones**|**20.5**|**15.5**|**13**|**38%**|**11.8**| **4.2**|**5.4**|**16.8**|
|Larry Nance|20.5|13.3|10|34%|14.7|2.7|9.8|14.7|
I think these numbers are frankly self-explanatory, but **the long and short of it is that Kelly Olynyk was a better college rebounder and shot blocker than Kai Jones.** Digging a bit deeper, you also find here rail thin players like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Collins (who both played next to bigs in college) who out rebounded Jones, while doubling and tripling his block rate at younger ages. Christian Wood, a nominal comp with a questionable defensive role in the NBA, blocked shots at 2x the rate and was a far better rebounder, on top of making more threes and better facilitating. The only player here who Jones remotely resembles is Larry Nance Jr., who is 2.5 inches shorter and quite a bit more skilled at the same age (he also was a late first rounder 2 years after putting up those numbers). Somehow, Lauri Markkanen, who didn't dribble in college, touted a better assist rate (and better rebounding). It's difficult to stress how far behind this cohort he is at the point of being drafted.
In conclusion, **Jones skill level compares to extremely athletic but unskilled bigs, while his athletic stats (rebounds, blocks) compares to skilled, undersized bigs.** This is a very startling suite of statistics for a possibly lottery pick. The only explanation is that he hasn’t been playing basketball very long, **which at some point is not a positive. He’s going to have to learn basic fundamentals to contribute, and will need considerable time in the D-league**. Any team that drafts him will have to be patient, but also calibrate the necessity of investing so much in someone who will already be 21 by their first NBA game. I have about 40+ guys above Jones on my board, and as a second rounder I’m not sure he’s worth it. Why invest so many resources when by the time he’s developed he’ll likely be on another team?
Thanks for reading.
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