Spurs Still Legit Championship Contenders?

[G-Dawgg]

Keep hoping...

[BillMc]

We're contenders. What some people here need to feel secure about their team is being "heavy favorites to win it all" which the Spurs are clearly not. But they are one of about 4 teams that realistically could win it, which obviously makes them contenders.

[BillMc]

Two words: Davis ng Bertans

(though, that's actually three words, even in Latvian).

Edit: Just saw you were joking. Too bad. I'm hoping from some serious contributions "Pop willing" from him.

[SAGirl]

We're contenders. What some people here need to feel secure about their team is being "heavy favorites to win it all" which the Spurs are clearly not. But they are one of about 4 teams that realistically could win it, which obviously makes them contenders.

This is probably the best summary of the situation. Too many guys in the team that are unknown to be flat out favorites not just bc of the superteam (but the old guys are a bit injury prone and can't be taken for granted, and then the too young guys are uknown). LMA, Kawhi, Pau, Danny etc makes the team contenders but the the others are X factors.

[TD 21]

Yeah, it is sort of cliché - although I didn't realize I was a suspect. I voted "Yes," though, in your very important poll. It certainly won't be a miracle if the Spurs win.

I'm not really concerned about protecting my claims. I've had my misses on guesses such as these and will admit them. In late 2014, you still thought the Spurs were a top 2 team but would need home court advantage. As I recall, you felt the Spurs could win 2 on the road in a playoff series against anyone except OKC but could not win 4 on the road...which was a fairly reasonable take at the time. But you still thought the Spurs were "good enough" at that time to win - with conditions.

Here is a quote from a thread in March 2015 en led: Can 2014 Spurs beat the 2015 warriors?
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...hlight=contend

Yeah, because I said it was "very important".

With this level of guard play and how poorly they match-up with a team they're going to have to go through, it would take a miracle for the Spurs to win.

But you're not making a guess and instead are defaulting to attempting to cover your bases either way.

You're misconstruing what I said on two counts: I said sometime around late '14 - early '15 and that they could win a series, maybe even two without home court, but not four and at that time, it looked like it would have to be three or four.

If you're going to try to pull a "gotcha!", try harder.

What a load of crap, Duncan was easily 1st Team All NBA Defense before his knee got hurt and the team was having its best defensive season since like 2004.

Yet they always had offensive issues (no lead creator for a championship level team, a lack of volume three-point shooting, a lack of rollers and a glacial pace) that were clearly going to be their undoing at some point in the playoffs.

The reality is that in other seasons, this team was built in a way where it was more of a team effort than individuals. You needed to have a throwback season from one or more of Tim/Manu/Tony and then also see if the bench would gel together. With that kind of team, you could only really tell where it was going by mid-season or so.

But since at least last season (especially after TD got hurt), and especially now that TD is gone, this is strictly a top-heavy team. We're going to go as far as the top individuals take us. And it's undeniable there's a lot to prove there. Some will say that Gasol might do a better job than TD at this stage, especially hurt TD, but it's a completely different scenario. Tim was a guy that played with this core forever. I love the Pau signing, but there's going to be a learning curve, and chemistry stuff to work on, and another big question mark there.

IMO, the bench is probably the biggest question mark. They could be pretty good or atrocious. That's why it's hard to realistically count on them being above average at this point.

I don't know why TD 21 keeps rehashing 3 pt shooting when the team added a sniper that really that's all he does:Bertans.

Bertans won't be in the rotation and talk of Anderson/Simmons improvement is strictly speculative.

Three-point shooting is especially important to this team because they haven't been able to get to the line in ages and without being proficient in at least one of the two, it's not possible to have an explosive offense and in this era, you need that to win a championship.

The Spurs a better than Cleveland. That's enough. All this other is just overthinking things. They have their holes, but they still have a high ceiling. Parker and Manu just have to hit it.

That's irrelevant if they're not capable of getting to them and they're not clearly better. They're a better regular season team, but the Cavaliers are more suited for the playoffs.

Parker and Ginobili are no longer capable of fulfilling the role they need at least one of them to fill. They'll be lucky to replicate last season, let alone improve.

[BillMc]

We have every reason to build chemistry throughout the RS and be ready for a few swings for the fence in the playoffs. We sweep under the radar into the WCF when Durant, Curry, and Thompson start imploding before our eyes in game 6 sending us to the Finals.

It's game 7 in the Finals and it's Manu Ginobili's final game. We are down by 1 with the ball. Manu throws the ball in to Kawhi who bullets it LMA in the post. Manu rolls to the basket catches LMA's pass mid-air and throws it up as the clock expires and it rolls in as 20.000 people explode with cheers of joy. In the trophy ceremony Manu is carried onstage by Green and Tony to get his FMVP trophy saying through tears "Muchisimas gracias San Antonio! I love you all!!"

I had that same dream. Let's hope it is a premonition...

[objective]

I voted 'no'

They're too dependent on factors outside their direct control like injuries to the Warriors or unusual improvements from Kawhi to an even higher level or Anderson or Simmons, or unexpected and unlikely comebacks from Manu & Parker.

Further hamstringing them is Pop's choices. Limiting Kawhi's minutes in the playoffs, overplaying guys who can't cut it, refusing to play others because of how that "wouldn't be fair" to the experienced scrubs, etc.

That's just too much. If Curry or Durant are out for the playoffs, then they have a somewhat reasonable chance.

Spurs couldn't hang with the Warriors last year, going to be much worse this year. Parker and Mills can't play against GS at all. No one to hide them on anymore. Both get shredded by Curry. , both get stomped in the post by Livingston. And if McCaw gets in the rotation, he'll dump all over them too.

[SAGirl]

Bertans won't be in the rotation and talk of Anderson/Simmons improvement is strictly speculative.

Three-point shooting is especially important to this team because they haven't been able to get to the line in ages and without being proficient in at least one of the two, it's not possible to have an explosive offense and in this era, you need that to win a championship.

You have a good point in the speculative nature, but such is the situation of all pre-season predictions. Bounce back season for Danny (speculation), Kyle shooting more 3s (speculation) Ginobili at 39 (by its very nature of aging can't be taken for granted in minutes or production, so speculation), Bertans playing or not playing (speculation), JSimms production as a whole and 3's specially (speculation). But notice all these guys have shot the 3 before (some very well). It's not like predicting Lee or Dedmon will shoot the 3 (ridiculous and baseless).

Plus, the bench is replacing pick and pop long 2 from D'West or Diaw, with guys who, if they are in the game will pop from 3. That alone will make a difference. That was how they played Anderson in SL and Bertans. I don't expect them to go back to the long 2 in the bench (unknown with the starters as Aldridge likes the long 2). Probably the most significant improvement in 3 pt shooting should come from Danny bouncing back and Anderson and Bertans eating up the former DWest/Diaw long 2 shots.

Also, the expectations for Kyle are not unreasonable. He's shot very well from the spots they had him shoot previously in his life. This is not like predicting Lee will shoot a 3 all of a sudden. It's unknown with Bertans, so many things could happen that push him in the rotation (others guys not performing well, injuries, his own good play, etc. but obviously he's a rook so it's speculative)

From there on, I would say the odds are at least in favor of the team in general being a better 3 pt shooting team than last season's team. How guys will do individually of course is entering into the realm of speculation either on the positive or the negative side. I like to enter the season looking at the positive side.

You have a good point on the importance of 3 pt shooting for this team though in that they don't look to get to the line, etc. It is indeed a very important factor. When they have been explosive several guys were getting hot from 3.

[Chinook]

This whole "Only GS can win" at ude is the dumbest thing I've ever seen on this forum, and this is Spurstalk for 's sake. The Spurs can beat the Warriors. They simply have to play well. That's it. It's not ing alchemy. They aren't moving a damned mountain. It's just a basketball team. The Mavs versus the Heatles was a bigger on-paper mismatch than the Spurs versus the Warriors.

The Warriors needed seven games to beat the third-best team in the West last year and lost to the third- or fourth-best team in the league. Get out of here with this college-football mentality.

[BillMc]

A lot of cliche, vanilla takes from the usual suspects. It's a win-win situation. If by some miracle they win, you can pretend to have believed all along and claim that those that didn't aren't "real fans". If they lose, you can claim to have stood by "your" team all along and that those who predicted it didn't.

I see it as the reverse. Those who constantly say the Spurs can't win are just playing the numbers so they can shout "I told you so!" and wax their anti-player X agendas, should the Spurs fall short, and, if the Spurs do win they know everyone will be too elated to call them out on it, and, even if they do it will be lost under the euphoria. It happened with all the doom sayers after 2013, who were all too happy to celebrate 2014.

A certain poster (who shall remain nameless), for example, circa 2011, made the bold prediction that the Spurs would never win another championship with Manu on the team. In 2014 he was celebrating along with everyone else, with not a word about his prediction.

Since no franchise wins the le nearly every year since the 60's Celtics, the naysayers and nilists get to feel "right" most the time, they know that game, while others are talking about how the Spurs COULD take the LOB in any given year, even if the odds are stacked against them. I guess those with a positive at ude are vanilla.

[BillMc]

This whole "Only GS can win" at ude is the dumbest thing I've ever seen on this forum, and this is Spurstalk for 's sake. The Spurs can beat the Warriors. They simply have to play well. That's it. It's not ing alchemy. They aren't moving a damned mountain. It's just a basketball team. The Mavs versus the Heatles was a bigger on-paper mismatch than the Spurs versus the Warriors.

The Warriors needed seven games to beat the third-best team in the West last year and lost to the third- or fourth-best team in the league. Get out of here with this college-football mentality.

Amen.

"If history tells us anything, its that anyone can be killed." Michael Corleone.

[dabom]

I see it as the reverse. Those who constantly say the Spurs can't win are just playing the numbers so they can shout "I told you so!" and wax their anti-player X agendas, should the Spurs fall short, and, if the Spurs do win they know everyone will be too elated to call them out on it, and, even if they do it will be lost under the euphoria. It happened with all the doom sayers after 2013, who were all too happy to celebrate 2014.

A certain poster (who shall remain nameless), for example, circa 2011, made the bold prediction that the Spurs would never win another championship with Manu on the team. In 2014 he was celebrating along with everyone else, with not a word about his prediction.

Since no franchise wins the le nearly every year since the 60's Celtics, the naysayers and nilists get to feel "right" most the time, they know that game, while others are talking about how the Spurs COULD take the LOB in any given year, even if the odds are stacked against them. I guess those with a positive at ude are vanilla.

Amen to this. No one really cares enough to call out another poster when we win.

[SAGirl]

GSW has their issues too. They have redundancies. They added more of what they already had and were good at, at the cost of further weakening areas that they were poor at when Bogut was injured (and now they don't have Bogut). They will be vulnerable in the paint, dribble penetration will kill them, will give up second chance points, will fail at times to get defensive boards, potentially they will face stars getting in foul trouble, their bigs don't rebound, or defend well in the paint (DWest?) etc. They are a jumpshooting team that will go on insane hot streaks and then face nights when they can't stop fouling or stop anybody themselves and their jumpshots are not falling. They might not even be as good as last season's team. They have their vulnerabilities.

That is why I just based my own opinion on the Spurs themselves and the Spurs own vulnerabilities. Obviously, no team is without weaknesses, that is why the games are played.

objective has a pessimistic view but I shared some of that pessimism sometimes. Pop puzzles me to no end. I almost feel he will sacrifice Bertans and Anderson both in the "altar of Lee." He will let Tony and Mills indeed get eaten alive b4 he tries something else. I also feel like he is extremely capable of still going through Tony/Manu when it counts, even though he shouldn't. It's actually frankly very pathetic when I get into that mood paying attention to Pop's headscratching decisions.

I said it before and perhaps will say it again. The whole thing is on Pop, then how he adjusts the team to the current talent he has and manages expectations for Tony and Manu. From the beginning I said, I was positive about everything and everyone in the team except Tony, Manu and Pop knowing when enough is enough.

[ElNono]

I see it as the reverse. Those who constantly say the Spurs can't win are just playing the numbers so they can shout "I told you so!" and wax their anti-player X agendas, should the Spurs fall short, and, if the Spurs do win they know everyone will be too elated to call them out on it, and, even if they do it will be lost under the euphoria. It happened with all the doom sayers after 2013, who were all too happy to celebrate 2014.

A certain poster (who shall remain nameless), for example, circa 2011, made the bold prediction that the Spurs would never win another championship with Manu on the team. In 2014 he was celebrating along with everyone else, with not a word about his prediction.

Since no franchise wins the le nearly every year since the 60's Celtics, the naysayers and nilists get to feel "right" most the time, they know that game, while others are talking about how the Spurs COULD take the LOB in any given year, even if the odds are stacked against them. I guess those with a positive at ude are vanilla.

It's clearly the easier option to pick "no", because, as you say, the odds are always with you. But that shouldn't preclude discussing why yes or why no (or even why maybe).

I already made my case, which I think it's pretty similar to what objective posted. Way more "ifs" than other seasons, IMO.

[Solid D]

Yeah, because I said it was "very important".

Kind of spinning it but I get the fact the Spurs blew their chances by dropping to the 6th seed at the end that year, but you still thought the Spurs were contenders and not pretenders on March 15th of 2015. You thought they were worthy of that respect nationally following their 2014 championship, and in their defense as being good enough as a contender you believed that "Largely due to a combination of injuries, fatigue and sheer boredom," the Spurs had not looked like themselves in 2014-15. Still, you thought they were at least a contender back then and worthy of such respect:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...=1#post7874584

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...=1#post7875279

I know, but after the show they put on in the Finals and considering who they did it against, I thought they'd finally receive the proper amount of respect . . . and they did until December-January. This in a league where the defending champion is often given too much respect. If this were the Heat or Lakers, the vast majority would be giving them the benefit of the doubt and bringing up what I brought up about the Warriors.

The Spurs, Thunder (depending on Durant, as you said) and in the East, the Cavs. That's not any different than any other season though, [B]as far as the number of legitimate contenders.

The points you're making about the Spurs I've made myself over the past few months, but I'm talking nationally, the Spurs should be receiving the level of respect the Warriors are and vice versa.

A few other things about the Warriors: 1) I know it's cliche, but they've faced no adversity. Who knows how they'll respond if the Thunder have them down 2-1 in a series, for example. 2) They weren't supposed to be in the position they're in and have never been in the role of favorites. Deep down, even they've got to be wondering if they're really this good and truly better than the Spurs and Thunder.

Anyway, I think they are contenders this year and you don't. The odds are against the Spurs and they are not the favorites but we are not debating that one.

[Chomag]

Kind of late to the party but I think the Spurs are definitely still an elite team but not a championship team. It would take key injuries to 2-3 top teams to put the Spurs at the top. Anything could happen down the road of course but if talking about current states this is how I'm seeing it.

[TD 21]

You have a good point in the speculative nature, but such is the situation of all pre-season predictions. Bounce back season for Danny (speculation), Kyle shooting more 3s (speculation) Ginobili at 39 (by its very nature of aging can't be taken for granted in minutes or production, so speculation), Bertans playing or not playing (speculation), JSimms production as a whole and 3's specially (speculation). But notice all these guys have shot the 3 before (some very well). It's not like predicting Lee or Dedmon will shoot the 3 (ridiculous and baseless).

Plus, the bench is replacing pick and pop long 2 from D'West or Diaw, with guys who, if they are in the game will pop from 3. That alone will make a difference. That was how they played Anderson in SL and Bertans. I don't expect them to go back to the long 2 in the bench (unknown with the starters as Aldridge likes the long 2). Probably the most significant improvement in 3 pt shooting should come from Danny bouncing back and Anderson and Bertans eating up the former DWest/Diaw long 2 shots.

Also, the expectations for Kyle are not unreasonable. He's shot very well from the spots they had him shoot previously in his life. This is not like predicting Lee will shoot a 3 all of a sudden. It's unknown with Bertans, so many things could happen that push him in the rotation (others guys not performing well, injuries, his own good play, etc. but obviously he's a rook so it's speculative)

The difference is, Green had a 4 season run as an elite three-point shooter, is only 29 and hasn't suffered a career altering injury, so there's good reason to think it was just an off season, for whatever reason(s).

I doubt Anderson and/or Simmons suddenly morph into high percentage/volume three-point shooters and a few Summer League games damn sure isn't sufficient evidence.

Sure, Bertans could end up a rotation player at some point, but he doesn't project as one coming in and it's unlikely he ends up one.

Kind of spinning it but I get the fact the Spurs blew their chances by dropping to the 6th seed at the end that year, but you still thought the Spurs were contenders and not pretenders on March 15th of 2015. You thought they were worthy of that respect nationally following their 2014 championship, and in their defense as being good enough as a contender you believed that "Largely due to a combination of injuries, fatigue and sheer boredom," the Spurs had not looked like themselves in 2014-15. Still, you thought they were at least a contender back then and worthy of such respect:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...=1#post7874584

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...=1#post7875279



Anyway, I think they are contenders this year and you don't. The odds are against the Spurs and they are not the favorites but we are not debating that one.

That was about the media, for the most part, owing them more respect and my not being sold on any particular team dethroning them.

Keep trying.

I see it as the reverse. Those who constantly say the Spurs can't win are just playing the numbers so they can shout "I told you so!" and wax their anti-player X agendas, should the Spurs fall short, and, if the Spurs do win they know everyone will be too elated to call them out on it, and, even if they do it will be lost under the euphoria. It happened with all the doom sayers after 2013, who were all too happy to celebrate 2014.

I guess those with a positive at ude are vanilla.

I'm not "playing the numbers". I'm saying, they can't beat the Warriors, minus multiple significant injuries to them. Given that they're a lock (again, with that same caveat) to be in the WCF, that means the Spurs can't win the championship.

It's false hope though (something cliche, vanilla fans inexplicably think they have to cling to), as evidenced by the lack of reasons as to why they can win the championship.

This whole "Only GS can win" at ude is the dumbest thing I've ever seen on this forum, and this is Spurstalk for 's sake. The Spurs can beat the Warriors. They simply have to play well. That's it. It's not ing alchemy. They aren't moving a damned mountain. It's just a basketball team. The Mavs versus the Heatles was a bigger on-paper mismatch than the Spurs versus the Warriors.

The Warriors needed seven games to beat the third-best team in the West last year and lost to the third- or fourth-best team in the league. Get out of here with this college-football mentality.

Nah, West being a starting center easily beats it.

I've given a bunch of reasons as to why I think they can't; you haven't given a single reason as to why you think they can. Cliche nonsense like "play well" doesn't count.

WCF: Curry clearly wasn't physically right, the Thunder matched up well with them and had superior star power to the Spurs.

Finals: Curry still not physically right, Iguodala not physically right the final two games, Bogut out most of game 6 and all of game 7, Green suspended for game 5, they matched up decently and had/have superior star power to the Spurs.

[spurs10]

This whole "Only GS can win" at ude is the dumbest thing I've ever seen on this forum, and this is Spurstalk for 's sake. The Spurs can beat the Warriors. They simply have to play well. That's it. It's not ing alchemy. They aren't moving a damned mountain. It's just a basketball team. The Mavs versus the Heatles was a bigger on-paper mismatch than the Spurs versus the Warriors.

The Warriors needed seven games to beat the third-best team in the West last year and lost to the third- or fourth-best team in the league. Get out of here with this college-football mentality.

Exactly. The 'only GSW can win' is bull . I don't envy GSW.

[Solid D]

That was about the media, for the most part, owing them more respect and my not being sold on any particular team dethroning them.

Keep trying.

No trying needed. People who care, can read what you said at face value and see for themselves. Spin is just spin and people see through it.

[Obi Juan Kenobi]

The question is asking if they are contenders...not if they are the favorites...

[Obi Juan Kenobi]

We're contenders. What some people here need to feel secure about their team is being "heavy favorites to win it all" which the Spurs are clearly not. But they are one of about 4 teams that realistically could win it, which obviously makes them contenders.

[SAGirl]

The question is asking if they are contenders...not if they are the favorites...

A very important point. Frankly though I discussed the bench a whole lot the biggest questions for the playoffs bottom line are in the SL. As much as I chatted with TD 21 about the bench and the 3 pt shooting, the rotation will be cut short in the playoffs and its up to the stars to take the team home. It's Kawhi and LMA team and its on them. It's why I stated somewhere else that if Kawhi doesn't develop as a playmaker the team will be in trouble. Tony and Manu are not who they were and so go missing for games in the playoffs. If Kawhi and the other stars don't have it that is that. No one blames the roleplayers when teams underachive, it's on the coach and the stars bottom line. Roleplayers need to be set up and Tony and Manu are roleplayers right now. Hopefully Pop sees that and tries to address it somehow.

[gambit1990]

if Kawhi doesn't develop as a playmaker the team will be in trouble.

parker starting/his style of play impedes kawhi's development as a player and playmaker.

the trouble with the team is tony.

[sexinthatsx]

It's sad to say, but when we have Lamarcus Aldridge on the team, it automatically means second-round exit.

[spursistan]

It's sad to say, but when we have Lamarcus Aldridge on the team, it automatically means second-round exit.