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  1. #1
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    https://www.spurstalk.com/san-antoni...t-big-board-1/

    Who's too high? Who's too low?

    I'll probably end up doing a handful of these as the draft approaches. It sounds like we'll get genuine measurements and some athletic testing at some point, which will cause movement on the Big Board.

  2. #2
    Erryday I'm Hustlin' Robz4000's Avatar
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    Lamelo Ball

  3. #3
    ಥ﹏ಥ DAF86's Avatar
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    It really sucks that the one time the Spurs get to draft on the lottery there aren't many great wing prospects out there.

    Any of these combo guards would need to become all-stars for me to able to stomach their selections. On the other hand, if a guy like, let's say Patrick Williams or Saddiq Bey, becomes nothing more than Robert Covington types, I would be more than happy with them, tbh.

  4. #4
    Believe.
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    I think RJ Hampton at 10 is too high. No pull up game (7th percentile) and advance handle to be a lead guard. The jump from below average to above average in volume C&S jumpers (27th percentile) is too optimistic for him to be an effective off-ball guard.

    I think Okoro at 14 is too low. He's a versatile defender and a high level finisher already. Only need to hit open C&S corner threes to be playable.
    Last edited by rankingtear; 09-15-2020 at 04:48 AM.

  5. #5
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    I think you're pretty dead-on with most of your observations. I also think that a lot of people don't understand a Big Board. You just ranked them by their value to the Spurs, without regard to who may or may not have already been picked. That way they just go down the list to find the Best Player Available (for the Spurs) when their turn comes up. The only problem I have is ranking, when you don't know what the Spurs strategy is going to be. Planning the best fit with the current roster is one thing; if they moved LMA and one of the youngs, for instance, the best fit would be totally different. We don't know any of that, so your list is pretty damn good. But I would really like to see them pick from the perspective of LMA being gone in a year or less.

    I really want the Spurs to get a PG, and I was pretty high on Tyrese Halliburton. You said this about him: "My issue with Haliburton is I donít truly believe he can be a full-time lead point guard." Sadly, I think you're right about that, and I was wrong. You also called Pokusevski "the ultimate gamble", and I think that's a perfect description. "He's got a 5% chance of being really good", which means he has a 95% chance of not being any better than most of the other guys on the list - but with a LOT more risk of never really being NBA-worthy.

    The only thing I'd suggest is that I would swap Poku and Nesmith (10 & 11), so that if all of the first 10 players on your Big Board get taken first, the Spurs would pick the guy with an instant impact, (Which tells you how I feel about the level of risk on Poku, because there would always be 11 players above him on the list.) I think Bey will be better than most people here seem to believe, and that he's a pretty sensible pick at 11 - but that also depends on how the Spurs look in a year or two. All in all a pretty damn good list, with the assumption that the Spurs aren't going to make any other major roster moves.

  6. #6
    Believe. JuneJive's Avatar
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    All in all a pretty damn good list, with the assumption that the Spurs aren't going to make any other major roster moves.
    This is the big question.

    I hope they draft a player with a high ceiling.
    Forget short term impact.

  7. #7
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    This is the big question.

    I hope they draft a player with a high ceiling.
    Forget short term impact.

    A lot of people here feel that way. I'm clearly in the minority.

    The thing people don't seem to be hearing is that I'm not talking about the "safe" picks because of the impact they will have in Year 1, so that the Spurs make the playoffs next season. I would like to see them go full-on youth movement this upcoming season and let those young guys get floor time, and get used to playing together. I would rather see them take one more year of serious rebuilding, and swing for the fence in a more top-heavy draft. If they played their cards right, they could take a shot in the draft next year, and also have a shot in the trade/FA market to pick up a bigger-impact player. You can't look at the draft in a vacuum.

  8. #8
    #POPOUT
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    too high:
    lamelo, rj hampton, hayes, kira lewis

    too low:
    avdija, smith, achiuwa

  9. #9
    Spurs Sage Russ's Avatar
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    Good job timvp.

    Of my two favorites, Okongwu and Avdija, you have one higher (Okongwu) and one (Avdija) lower than most mocks.

    Hopefully, many GMs agree with you on Avdija.

  10. #10
    Believe.
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    The value of non-shooting, non-passing centers is plummeting. In these playoffs, such centers are finding it difficult to find their way onto the court — and that’s a pattern that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
    I can see one of Okongwu or Wiseman dropping to 11 , nobody in the top 10 except for the Wizards are looking for bigs. Golden State according to the Ringer would prioritize a wing so Lamelo might drop to Charlotte. Vassel and Pat are looking like top 10 picks.

  11. #11
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I also think that a lot of people don't understand a Big Board. You just ranked them by their value to the Spurs, without regard to who may or may not have already been picked. That way they just go down the list to find the Best Player Available (for the Spurs) when their turn comes up.
    Yeah, I should have included this in the write-up. Good explanation of the purpose a Big Board

  12. #12
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I think RJ Hampton at 10 is too high. No pull up game (7th percentile) and advance handle to be a lead guard. The jump from below average to above average in volume C&S jumpers (27th percentile) is too optimistic for him to be an effective off-ball guard.
    Before I took a deep dive on Hampton, I had him somewhere around ~20. His stats in Australia are really scary, including the numbers you pointed out.

    The Spurs are known to be one of the better teams at developing players and if you're looking for a raw prospect to develop, Hampton is pretty high on that list. Extremely fast, great burst, good size at 6-foot-5, good touch, etc. And then when you factor in that he was basically a junior in high school who reclassified to a senior and then went pro all within a couple months -- his struggles in Australia are pretty understandable. Australia isn't a great league but they have a lot of former, old, desperate NBA-ish guys at the guard positions who didn't hesitate to beat him up.

    Plus, Hampton only played like 300 minutes in Australia. I don't think it's wise to make any decisions based on a sample size that small. For example, Keldon Johnson played more minutes as a rookie and if we go by his numbers, we'd be counting on him to be a better version of Kawhi and we'd be celebrating his 100th percentile three-point jumper.

  13. #13
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    I'm fairly certain your percentage assesments of Poku are way off. Guys with his combination of (not-stiffness with size) + (feel for the game) + (skills) + (youth) only end out of the NBA if they get injured /off court stuff (eg. cocaine) or have absolutely no physical development from 18 onwards... IMO, there's a 75% chance of becoming at a minimum a bench big. 50% chance of becoming a started in the long term, and 10% chance he becomes a star.

  14. #14
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    IMO, there's a 75% chance of becoming at a minimum a bench big. 50% chance of becoming a started in the long term, and 10% chance he becomes a star.
    It's possible that I'm selling Poku short but, then again, if you're percentages are accurate, he'd be a consensus top 5 or possibly top 3 pick in the draft. As it stands, Poku has a better chance of dropping to the second round than he does of cracking the top ten.

    His tools are pretty amazing for his size -- but to draft him you'd have to be confident his frame can add 20 to 30 pounds and that he'd retain his same agility with the added weight. From there, you have to trust he's capable of improving his decision-making, his ability to absorb contact and his ball-handling when going against physical defenders. And even if all that falls in place, then you have to figure out how to play someone who is a guard on offense and a center on defense.

    It's a difficult set of obstacles to overcome but, tbh, it'd be undeniably exciting if the Spurs draft him. Even a 5% chance of getting a star at 11 is pretty tempting. Would the Spurs do it? Probably not ... but then again, Samanic was an all-tools, high ceiling prospect last year and that didn't stop them.

  15. #15
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Before I took a deep dive on Hampton, I had him somewhere around ~20. His stats in Australia are really scary, including the numbers you pointed out.

    The Spurs are known to be one of the better teams at developing players and if you're looking for a raw prospect to develop, Hampton is pretty high on that list. Extremely fast, great burst, good size at 6-foot-5, good touch, etc. And then when you factor in that he was basically a junior in high school who reclassified to a senior and then went pro all within a couple months -- his struggles in Australia are pretty understandable. Australia isn't a great league but they have a lot of former, old, desperate NBA-ish guys at the guard positions who didn't hesitate to beat him up.
    Hampton was a damn good high school player (Little Elm Bygod Texas) - everyone was sure he'd be playing NBA ball in a few years. I think re-classifying and going pro was a mistake. He should have gone to play for a top-tier college program that would have helped him develop. I wish I had watched him play last year, but I read that he had a disaster kind of year. When that happens the first year in college (and it does happen), the player just goes back for another year and establishes those stats.

    A lot of hopefuls in the past have lied about their ages to look younger than they are, and get the advantage of playing against younger guys. I think Hampton just hit the perfect storm going the route he did. I'm not saying draft him, but if his confidence isn't shot I think he'll still be NBA-worthy. But it's a good bet that a year in the G-League with good coaching would make that a lot more likely. His plan of lighting it up overseas and coming back as a high lottery pick sort of went south on him. But if I was drafting for a team with a solid roster and a late first round pick, I would have to think about taking a shot.
    Last edited by ZeusWillJudge; 09-15-2020 at 12:14 PM.

  16. #16
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Saw this article posted on reddit and damn... Didnt know they hated this website so much.

    Looks like they really hated timvp's takes.

  17. #17
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Saw this article posted on reddit and damn... Didnt know they hated this website so much.

    Looks like they really hated timvp's takes.
    Meh, everyone loves timvp. I don't see where the thread is but I assume it's because they don't know what a Big Board is and what it's for. Admittedly, I should have included ZeusWillJudge's explanation, especially because a Big Board hasn't been relevant to Spurs fans since 1989 when the debate was between Danny Ferry, Sean Elliott and Glen Rice.

  18. #18
    ಥ﹏ಥ DAF86's Avatar
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    Hey timvp, what do you think the chances are of each of these combo guards, you have in your top 10, of being as good or better than Derrick White?

  19. #19
    Believe. Ignazzz's Avatar
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    Switch Ball with Avdija and mock is legit

  20. #20
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    One possible argument in favor of Poku is that the Spurs might take him and hope that either he or Samanic pans out, and whichever one does becomes the starting 4 for the foreseeable future. If both pan out, that's a high-quality problem to have.

    Of course, if Poku busts (independent of whether or not Samanic does) that's still a lot of opportunity cost lost on a #11 pick.

  21. #21
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    Thanks for write up. Just wish the draft would happen already ...

  22. #22
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    Poku's future sure looks bright in terms of possibilities. My guess is he'll be deemed too risky by lottery teams, and then wind up with an already talented team like Boston, Dallas, Denver, or Milwaukee, in which case he gets plenty of time to develop. Best case scenario for him.

  23. #23
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    A lot of people here feel that way. I'm clearly in the minority.

    The thing people don't seem to be hearing is that I'm not talking about the "safe" picks because of the impact they will have in Year 1, so that the Spurs make the playoffs next season. I would like to see them go full-on youth movement this upcoming season and let those young guys get floor time, and get used to playing together. I would rather see them take one more year of serious rebuilding, and swing for the fence in a more top-heavy draft. If they played their cards right, they could take a shot in the draft next year, and also have a shot in the trade/FA market to pick up a bigger-impact player. You can't look at the draft in a vacuum.
    Exactly this. I don't necessarily want a low-ceiling prospect, but a ready-to-play one. I don't think any one prospect the Spurs could realistically take at #11 is such a game-changer as to drag them to the POs (especially if one or both of DD/LMA are shipped out, as they should be), so the smart move is to tank next season, take your high-ceiling prospect in next years' loaded class, and then you already have a supporting cast surrounding said prospect, composed of mostly if not all young players that can develop and grow together into a hopefully playoff-level core. Then, you take a swing at a FA star signing, which is the most difficult but also the piece that catapults you back to championship contention. That's a solid rebuild in my eyes.

  24. #24
    Chopper Ed Helicopter Jones's Avatar
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    I don't see where the thread is but I assume it's because they don't know what a Big Board is and what it's for.
    Or, to slightly modify an old quote, if idiots were a power source, we could provide electricity for a major city with the posters from this site.

  25. #25
    Believe.
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    Too high: Hampton
    too low: Wiseman
    way too low: Avdija

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