He won Iowa in 2016, then Democrats won 3 of Iowa’s 4 house seats in 2018 and the governor race was a razor thin margin. Prior to 2016 Obama won Iowa comfortable margins both times, Gore also won it in 2000. It’s not the ruby red state it looked like in 2016. One of the reasons Ernst is in trouble is because she took the political landscape in Iowa for granted and thought she could get away with being a Koch Brothers pros ute who ignores her home state. Iowa isn’t red enough for that.
Farm bankruptcies in Iowa are also through the roof since Trump implemented tariffs, the reddest part of Iowa is getting slammed with a COVID outbreak right now, and the federal derecho response has been abysmal. The only thing Trump has given Iowans is farm subsidies to make up for the tariffs, but most farmers would rather own a self sustaining farm that pays for itself rather than rely on subsidies that could be cut off at any moment.