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Don’t you think the early voting turnout is massive enough?
Also, I should note that I’ve been wrong more than I’ve been right in the past five presidential elections
Trump beat Clinton by 9 points in Texas in 2016, wasn't that close honestly. Going to have to have massive turnout in Houston, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, and El Paso tomorrow for there to be any chance IMO.
Don’t you think the early voting turnout is massive enough?
Also, I should note that I’ve been wrong more than I’ve been right in the past five presidential elections
The reason I'm calling Texas blue this cycle is purely based on the ex/suburb trends. Trump was compe ive/won them and Beto flipped em heavily.
Hays county, Trump won by 1 point and Beto beat Cruz by 15
Tarrant was +9 Trump +1 Beto
Denton +20 Trump Cruz +8
Collin Trump +16 Cruz +6
We're talking 10 point shifts in these 2nd tier population centers and the trend will continue this year with a historically terrible Dennison and a pandemic
No, I don't. The enthusiasm for Trump is enormous in Texas from what I have seen. I'd love to see Texas go blue but I strongly doubt I'll see it until the boomers are no longer much of a force in voting.
Of course not. The only question is if the Republican party doesn't go the way of the Whigs.
Deal.
Not many contestants thus far. Can you give Kori a call and ask her to update the thread le?
You’re prolly right. I just see so much excitement and anticipation from 20-30 year olds this time. Certainly a lot more then in previous elections so I’m inclined to think they can make up for it.
However, I’ve underestimated rednecks before soooo.....
I'll send timvp and Kori Ellis a PM...
PM me your info. I'll send you the $250 and you can pay out the whole thing.
No payment if nobody does it with pinpoint accuracy. You should just hold onto your money.
If Splits gets $250, he gets it. Nice of him to make this thread, tbh
Derp making rules for someone donating.
Makes sense...
Or we can do another prognostication, tbh... I'm sure there's going to be all sorts of questions from here to January
Probably be best to ring the landline this time of day, with the kids and all. PM me if you lost the number.
We could do a 2nd version of this thread with a guaranteed payout, i.e. who gets the closest ECV map.
So many signs point in Biden's favor for Texas but I still can't bring myself to even hope for it, because it's Texas.
I don't have the # and I never called them... you go ahead an ring them up if you want to. Updating the OP might just be enough.
I’ll add my prediction later today. I’m really struggling with Texas and Iowa.
Just the fact that we’re debating Texas is incredible to me.
Paypal has fees for sending money back and forth. Don't be too triggered, Less Than Blake.
Don't. They're red.
But put blue. it'll be better forlater.
Apparently there was some strange wording in the Selzer poll which may have skewed the early voter results. If I had a do over from my OP I'd probably turn Iowa blue but really struggling with Ohio... I think Dennison hangs on there for some reason. Texas is blue.
You probably live in a neighborhood like mine. Trump signs rule.
But at the early voting, the Trump crazies walking behind the sacred zone were getting zero thumbs up, people were looking away.
And there were more people of all shades of skin color than I have ever seen. Not just a bunch of old white guys.
but yeah, Im in San Antonio, not the rich burbs of Dallas.
Yeah Ohio is one of the few states where demographics have shifted in favor of Republicans in the last 5 years.
My wife did not vote in 2016 saying her vote would not matter.
You did the same, or implied the same IIRC?
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