spurraider21's Official 2020 Mock Draft:
(link to my 2019 mock draft: https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...=1#post9778114)
I won't be projecting any trades. The main shock here is that I don't see a natural spot for Isaiah Simmons here, except possibly the Giants or Panthers. I don't think it's a sure thing he goes as high as people think because of positional need. Assuming he does go top 10, though, that changes the Raiders first pick to a WR. Without further ado:
1 - Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB. No explanation needed. He checks every box imaginable except that he doesn't have a cannon like Stafford, but very few do.
2 - Washington Redskins - Chase Young, DE. Assuming they stay put at #2, he's easily the best player on the board, and the Skins won't be going QB only a year after taking Haskins. He is in the Myles Garrett tier of DE prospects. Once every few years kind of guy. This is not a deep edge class, but he is better than anybody who came out last year.
3 - Detroit Lions - Jeffrey Okudah, CB. It's not a position that ordinarily goes this high, but he is a pretty complete prospect. The Lions don't have any need for one of the big name OT's, and they really need a CB to replace Slay. I think Simmons is tempting for Patricia here, but Okudah fills a huge need.
4 - New York Giants - Andrew Thomas, OT. Honestly, I think the top 4 OT's are graded pretty similarly, and it's hard to peg what order they'll go in. Thomas is not the most athletic of the group. He and Wirfs are the best technicians, but Thomas gets the nod because he has played on the left side more. I think Simmons is the BPA, but the Giants are investing in Daniel Jones and he needs help in the worst way.
5 - Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa, QB. They really wanted Rosen to emerge, but ended up having to go back to Fitzmagic. It was worth giving up a 2 for Rosen, but he's not worth passing up on the position here. His durability concerns me more than his arm strength, but he has great ball placement and solid mobility, but he's not some scrambling dynamo like Russell Wilson. He's more reminiscent to Drew Brees than anybody when factoring height/accuracy/mobility, but I have concerns because he played with a ridiculously elite supporting cast and his first read got open nearly every time.
6 - LA Chargers - Justin Herbert, QB. I really hope this happens. The Chargers are obviously in the QB market (no, Tyrod Taylor is not a legitimate long term plan), but the dropoff after Tua is steep. Herbert has all the tools, but doesn't put it together on tape. He's like Trubisky with better size and arm strength, or Josh Allen with worse running ability. This isn't a deep QB class, but they take what's there.
7 - Carolina Panthers - Derrick Brown, DT. I think they're also very tempted to take Isaiah Simmons, who is falling because of need, not talent. They lost Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, and Mario Addison from their defensive line, Brown is brutally strong and provides just enough disruption in the passing game to justify being picked this high.
8 - Arizona Cardinals - Mekhi Becton, OT. Before the Hopkins trade, I would have penciled them in for a WR to help out Kyler, but now they want to give some pass protection, and take the guy with by far the most upside at the position in Becton. The Louisville Cardinal becomes an Arizona Cardinal.
9 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Tristan Wirfs, OT. While WR remains a possibility here, they are satisfied enough with DJ Chark and Dede Westbrook to justify waiting until a later pick in a deep class to add to that position. They shore up the offensive line which was a liability last year. The Jags are a legitimate Tank for Trevor contender.
10 - Cleveland Browns - Jedrick Wills, OT. The Browns are also tempted to go Simmons here, but this team was disastrous on the OL last year, particularly at tackle. Wills is the last of the "big four" tackles.
11 - New York Jets - Jerry Jeudy, WR. The Jets need a lot of help at both WR and OT, and the decision became easier after 3 straight tackles came off the board. Jeudy steps in day 1 as the preferred target for Darnold.
12 - Las Vegas Raiders - Isaiah Simmons, LB/S. The Raiders had been locked in on taking either of Jeudy or Lamb. Great talents at a position of need. The Simmons slide ends though, as the Raiders take a dynamic hybrid defensive player to combat Mahomes and the Chiefs.
13 - San Francisco 49ers - CeeDee Lamb, WR. They add another YAC monster to an offense that already includes George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. They let Emmanuel Sanders walk, and replace him with a long term WR1.
14 - Tampa Bay Bucs - Javon Kinlaw, DT. The Bucs were really hoping one of the top tier OT's fell so they could protect Brady, but the value isn't there to take Josh Jones at this point, so they take the best player on the board, a disruptive, pass rushing interior lineman to fill the void left by Gerald McCoy a year ago.
15 - Denver Broncos - Henry Ruggs, WR. While I'm not very high on Ruggs, he provides an ideal complement to the more possession based Sutton, and gives Drew Lock an explosive downfield weapon.
16 - Atlanta Falcons - CJ Henderson, CB. The Falcons have needs across their defense, but Henderson has great physical tools and is a tier ahead of any CB remaining on the board.
17 - Dallas Cowboys - K'Lavon Chaisson, DE. While this isn't particularly the biggest position of need, and the Cowboys were really hoping to land CJ Henderson to replace Byron Jones, Chaisson is the only other edge rusher in this draft worthy of a day 1 pick after Chase Young. He sits opposite Demarcus Lawrence to wreak havoc on Wentz. You dont need great cover corners if opposing QB's don't have time in the pocket.
18 - Miami Dolphins - Josh Jones, OT. Miami decides its not too early to take Josh Jones and protects Tua, their new franchise QB.
19 - Las Vegas Raiders - Kristian Fulton, CB. The Raiders decide that after Lamb/Jeudy are off the board, the next 6-7 receivers on the board are comparable enough in value to justify waiting (and perhaps trading up into the second round) for their next pick to take one. Instead, they address another glaring position of need, and take the prototypically sized Fulton who was battle tested in the SEC.
20 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Justin Jefferson, WR. After having taken an offensive lineman earlier, they take the next WR off their board, a guy who has shown he can play in the slot or outside. Jefferson looked like a possession WR in college, but he ran in the 4.4 range, giving teams hope he can become a more dangerous weapon with some development. Perhaps they give Minshew a chance to shine with a stronger OL and a new toy out on the perimeter.
21 - Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Reagor, WR. The Eagles desperately need downfield speed on their offense, and Reagor is that guy with Ruggs off the board (I personally think Reagor is the better of the two). Their offense sputtered out after DeSean Jackson got hurt, and Reagor fits what they need perfectly.
22 - Minnesota Vikings - AJ Terrell, CB. The Vikings use the Stefon Diggs pick to replace Xavier Rhodes, and what was been a declining corner position for them, generally. Terrell had a rough championship game, but that was against an all-time college QB throwing to 2 first round caliber WR's (Chase will go top 10 next year).
23 - New England Patriots - Patrick Queen, LB. I'm not buying the Jordan Love talk for this pick. He was quite frankly not a good college QB, and I don't think BB has the patience for a guy as raw as this. Instead, they take an athletic, versatile linebacker who can run/tackle but also showed good coverage instincts and burst.
24 - New Orleans Saints - Kenneth Murray, LB. These 2 linebacker picks can be swapped, as they are similar in profile. Murray is a bit better at being physical and taking on blocks in the run game, though Queen shows a tad more pop/burst, though I think they are very close. The Saints don't have a lot of weaknesses, but they take a versatile defender who can hopefully help out against all division rivals (Falcons just traded for Hayden Hurst, the Panthers will use and abuse CMC, and even with those big time receivers, Brady still loves the short passing game).
25 - Minnesota Vikings - Yetur Gross-Matos, DE. The Vikings are tempted to go receiver here, but Zimmer will bang the table for more defense, and they need to replace Everson Griffen, even though the value here isn't outstanding.
26 - Miami Dolphins - AJ Epenesa, DE. The Dolphins use the 3rd of their picks to help out on defense. With the 2 highest paid corners in the league (Xavien Howard and Byron Jones) already in the secondary, and the two top linebackers off the board, they take a defensive linemen who was projected to go significantly higher before testing awfully at the combine.
27 - Seattle Seahawks - Ross Blacklock, DT. The Seahawks need to address their defensive front, which was good not great even with Clowney last year. There isn't much value left at edge, so they take an athletic, strong, penetrating defensive tackle.
28 - Baltimore Ravens - Michael Pittman, WR. So, the Ravens don't really have much in the way of needs... maybe they could use help at linebacker, but there aren't any worth taking here after Murray/Queen. After the resounding success that was Marquise Brown as Lamar Jackson's deep weapon, they get him another complement on the outside, with the big and fast Michael Pittman. His catch radius is big enough to give Jackson some margin for error, and his big frame allows him to win contested balls on tough third downs.
29 - Tennessee ans - Jaylon Johnson, CB. The ans have committed to Tannehill, and they think AJ Brown is a legit WR1, which is why they don't go offense here. Instead, they shore up an underperforming CB group with a physical, instinctive CB who maybe needs to learn a bit of discipline, but has a very high ceiling and good ball skills.
30 - Green Bay Packers - Tee Higgins, WR. The Packers receivers outside of Davante Adams were a massive weakness last year, and they currently don't really have much in the way of a tight end. In comes Tee Higgins, a big slot receiver with great ball skills and good enough speed to make it at the next level.
31 - San Francisco 49ers - Xavier McKinney, S. After getting Lamb earlier, the Niners go defense here, with the versatile, do-it-all McKinney who shows good enough cover skills to play FS but also is a very sturdy tackler who can match up against TE's and play SS. He will slide in next to Jimmie Ward to complete that secondary.
32 - Kansas City Chiefs - Jeff Gladney, CB. The Chiefs are loaded on offense, and their defensive front is disruptive. However, they are very vulnerable on the back end, and they address it with Gladney, who isn't the biggest or most imposing corner, but has good coverage instincts and is aggressive on the ball. The Chiefs prioritize playmaking/turnovers above all else.
Rumors say ATL looking to trade up to get Henderson, who is allegedly getting top 10 buzz.
yeah, i think both ATL and DAL will be chomping at the bit to take Henderson. some raiders beat writers think he's a legitimate option for them at 12 if the run on receivers starts earlier (jags, jets, a trade-up). i also think all things considered its pretty unlikely that simmons falls to 12, conventional logic is SOMEONE will take him, whether its the giants/panthers or a trade up. but in looking at each pick in a vacuum, i just dont think the giants will pass up on the tackle position
and if things go the way most mocks have it and the raiders come away with a receiver at 12, i think its very likely they trade back from 19 because there are 4-5 corners after henderson that are considered to be comparably graded/ranked (Fulton, Diggs, Terrell, Gladney, Johnson). makes a ton of sense to move back and still grab one from that group
i didnt want to project any trades in making a mock, though. the eagles are also rumored to want to move up to take one of the top WRs.
Last edited by spurraider21; 04-16-2020 at 04:55 PM.
I like your analysis, though admittedly it's a bit of a wishcaster homer pick since Simmons is the BPA in the draft along with Young.
As far as Simmons dropping -- you never really know, because Derwin James (similar player) dropped to 17 two years ago. If the Cowboys can somehow get him at 17 or trade say a 4th to move up a couple spaces to get him, it's a f-ing home run
probably a bit, though i also think jeudy or lamb would make great picks. i noted in the post you quoted that its unlikely simmons falls to 12... but i think the only real possible takers, barring a trade, are the giants and panthers. i think carolina is more likely to take him between those two
yeah Panthers are pretty desperate on the DL as you mentioned but they are a team completely rebuilding from scratch, they don't have a long term QB either... I see the Panthers going like 2-14 next year as they really have CMC and nothing else but holes on that roster. Plus Brees and Brady in the division. Maybe they steal 2 wins from the AFC-West (Denver and LAC?) but they're lucky if they don't go winless next year with that awful roster.
I don't like taking a WR in the first round at all unless it's a generational talent with freakish size AND speed AND football skills like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Jerry Rice, T.O., I think Seattle stole one of those future legends in the 2nd round last year with Metcalf but other than that I just don't see the value at WR in the first round.
This is a deep WR class and as long as you have a superior QB and OL, a 3rd round WR from this year might be just as good as Jeudy or Lamb or Ruggs. So many recent 1st round WR picks from 2015 to present that have completely flamed out and are now out of the league or just barely hanging on. I just don't like WR in the first round 98% of the time. Admittedly it's better than HB, though (lol Rams, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants etc).
jerry rice ran in like the 4.6 range...
look at the top receivers in the league, not all of them are blazing fast like calvin/julio. michael thomas, davante adams, keenan allen, deandre hopkins, kenny golladay, cooper kupp, allen robinson, tyler boyd, devante parker, etc... formerly fitzgerald/AB/boldin/jordy nelson
as far as i'm aware, none of those people ran in the 4.4 range
i'm not saying speed is a negative attribute, and you need a baseline level of speed to be competent in the NFL, but being faster or slower by two tenths of a second over 40 yards does not make or break your success. imo 40 times are more to confirm what you've seen on tape, and not something to make a decision based off of, as in you dont go
"oh that receiver never played that good, but damn, he ran a 4.32, we better draft him!"
but if you are drafting a guy because you think he's going to be a field stretcher and then he runs a 4.6, you really have to evaluate how good his route running, body control, ability to win contested balls are because he's not just going to run past guys like desean jackson
You make some good points. As for the bolded part, that's the kind of guy you take in the 4th round or later only, like a dede westbrook ...sometimes you get lucky, like with tyreek hill and the Chiefs. But understanding the guy will be a project due to his relative lack of college production/lack of big school notoriety, and whether or not it is a hit depends on the guy's work ethic, willingness to learn the NFL and the team's system etc. and his willingness to start out as a backup and playing on special teams, returning kicks etc before the coaches gain confidence to put the guy on the field on actual snaps.jerry rice ran in like the 4.6 range
look at the top receivers in the league, not all of them are blazing fast like calvin/julio. michael thomas, davante adams, keenan allen, deandre hopkins, kenny golladay, cooper kupp, allen robinson, tyler boyd, devante parker, etc... formerly fitzgerald/AB/boldin/jordy nelson
as far as i'm aware, none of those people ran in the 4.4 range
i'm not saying speed is a negative attribute, and you need a baseline level of speed to be competent in the NFL, but being faster or slower by two tenths of a second over 40 yards does not make or break your success. imo 40 times are more to confirm what you've seen on tape, and not something to make a decision based off of, as in you dont go
"oh that receiver never played that good, but damn, he ran a 4.32, we better draft him!"
but if you are drafting a guy because you think he's going to be a field stretcher and then he runs a 4.6, you really have to evaluate how good his route running, body control, ability to win contested balls are because he's not just going to run past guys like desean jackson
Didn't realize Rice was so slow. Wow. And Hopkins has the same exact speed as Dez Bryant, Davante Adams and Richard Sherman... not fast in today's NFL. I knew Michael Thomas was pretty slow and admittedly most of his catches are of the short to intermediate variety, he's like a hybrid tight end out there.
But back on topic, I just think drafting any WR in the 1st round who isn't a slam dunk like Calvin/Julio/TO, is an overdraft. Drafting a halfback is even worse (very low shelf life of s om), and drafting a QB is, well... a crapshoot, but a necessary one.
Amari Cooper was pretty close to being a sure thing and he panned out. I think Jeudy is similar
yes but Cooper isn't a generational franchise changing WR. He's a solid tier 2 guy and a #1 WR for sure, but he's not a guy who you can pretty much count on to command double and triple teams and win games practically by himself like Julio or Megatron. Jeudy will likely be the same kind of guy. As for Ruggs, he can either turn out to be the next Desean Jackson / Tyreek Hill, or he can be another John Ross of the Bungles or Dri Archer of Pittsburgh... time will tell, those lightning fast guys are sooooo hit-or-miss in the NFL
I just think a top 10-15 pick has to be a guy you can count on to be a franchise cornerstone, to take over and win games by himself when other things aren't going right, etc... if it's not a QB then it's a violent pass rusher, a nasty do-it-all DT like Aaron Donald/JJ Watt, a shutdown corner, a swiss army knife guy like Derwin James/Kam Chancellor/(Isaiah Simmons?) or a franchise offensive tackle to protect your star QB... anything else and there's just not value there IMO.
Read some press about Wonderlich scores.
Burrow scores pretty high.
Some others well...not so high
wonderlic is obsolete tbh
I read Eli and Romo scored pretty good and a punter had the highest score.
Anyone seen that ESPN commercial for the NFL Draft. Healthy Nigerian immigrant transformed into an obese footballer
Last edited by spurraider21; 04-20-2020 at 12:57 PM.
Thing about Joe Burrow is the Bungles are extremely lucky that he spent half his childhood in Ohio and was mostly raised in that area, so he's fine with the location and all, but 90% of top tier QBs would hold out
so the Khan family wants Ngakoue to pay them millions of dollars in order to trade him? I don't get it? Why don't they just pay him his worth to stay there long term?
no. they're telling him they need compensation to make a trade work, in that the other team needs to give them a good draft pick
problem is you're looking at a guy with similar skills to dee ford who wants to be traded AND paid, so you're giving up 2 compensations (both a high draft pick and a large bloated contract that will likely cost significant dead money at some point) to get back only 1 compensation (a good situation pass rusher player)... the receiving end of the trade from Jacksonville in this case would be doing bad business practice.
yeah, that's why he's not getting moved. the Jags are expecting to get a first round pick for him, but nobody is biting.
recent history has shown teams getting burned by trading high end assets for a player also needing a monster contract... mack/ramsey have been recent blockbusters. then we saw how cheap hopkins and darius slay were. but then brandin cooks still netted a 2nd
smart teams wouldnt trade anything significant for ngakoue, but the jags arent accepting that reality
jags should just pay him or accept a 3rd pick for him, still better than the comp pick they would get in like 2021 if they dumped him now
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