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moar conspiracies.
The economy has to heat up before it can be cooled down.
Well, it's happened in the past year even despite of COVID killing jobs... basically a year of nothing but stagflation. Both GOP/Dems at fault, but the blame is largely tilting toward the Dems as they have all 3 chambers in power now. And the government refuses to raise interest rates to protect consumers from this large-scale inflation that's been going on due to all this bull stimulus and borrowing due to ZIRP. Meanwhile people are still out of work and underemployed due to the plandemic.
The economy has to heat up before it can be cooled down.
It's been way too damn hot for way too many years. Particularly the housing/real estate market. It's way long overdue to cool down. Buyers haven't had a chance in over 7 years.
The economy has to heat up before it can be cooled down.
RE is great but right now is actually historically the worst time to buy. I would wait to buy because the market is long overdue to balance itself out. People talk about interest rates but the biggest problem is inventory and banks not having the balls to foreclose right now when they should be doing just that. The bottom is overdue to fall out on the housing market. Because right now it's literally the worst for buyers, worse than 2007. It has nowhere to go but down.
My OGI stock was freaking boss this week.
Probably has a few years growth left. Rising interest rates in the 2nd half of this decade are going to mess it all up for sure.
No way. There has never been 10+ years of growth without decline. It has been overdue to plateau/decline for about two years now as per normal economic cycle trends, but the stimulus bull , ZIRP garbage, and banks not having the balls to foreclose (as they should, because a contract is a contract, COVID is a lame excuse) has kept it temporarily propped up.
It will go down very soon, especially with a Dem president
Would've gotten in on it if I had seen it sooner.
Why would there be foreclosures in an area like texas where anyone can sell for a huge profit within hours of listing.
That's actually kind of a precursor to a crash and foreclosures.
How foreclosures tho
People can sell for $$$$ within hours of listing. Why would they wait to be foreclosed on
inventories low af, sellers prob aren't even getting back into houses that need to sell bc there aren't any available in emergency time frame
It's this kind of mania that usually precedes a bubble burst. And if that bubble does burst, a lot of homeowners could be upside down pretty quickly.
True I get that. But it took an epic lending cluster of really ty credit lines that took out 08 housing market.
Is there really a horde of low income adjustable rate mortgages out there driving this housing market? Seems to be a diff catalyst this time, like once in lifetime low mortgage rates, historically low inventories, etc
As to the horde of low income rates, I don't know. I'm sure it's gotten tighter. But if there is a significant crash, I think there is a risk of lots of homeowners having negative equity.
Depends. I think it could be the worst time to buy for a normal home buyer that's paying market value. But for an investor? If you buy smart and pay below market value, or even take on a rehab project...I dont think it's a bad move especially when coupled with these historically low rates.
It is dry af out there though. I've been ready to buy another property for like 5-6 months and haven't landed anything. Theres noticeably fewer good deals (compared to pre-covid or even the beginning of covid) out there for sure, and they're usually gone within a few days, tbh.
Texas market should be a good time to buy with interest rates so low. Values should continue to go up as Texas is forecast have great growth for a generation. Interest rates will be going up the 2nd half of this decade(or sooner).
If I was a RE investor I'd be buying. I'm not an RE investor tho so take that for what it is worth.
Even pre covid it's been bad for buyers for several years now.
As for rehab projects, they're just not out there anymore, like they were from 2009-2015 big time and even to some extent a couple years after that, but by around 2017 it became such a seller's market that even the rehab project houses were going for like 80k even for the tiest starter project homes that needed a ton of work. Long gone are the days where you could buy a gutted home for 20K, put 40K-60K of work making it look beautiful or at least move-in ready and re-sell it for like 150K-200K. Investors made good money doing that until that became too popular and everyone got priced out because the LTVs just aren't there anymore.
The low interest rates don't really matter for fix-and-flip because banks and credit unions won't offer conventional loans for rehab project homes. You have to get a hard money loan which is interest only and you have to (a) pay all the principal back at the end, and (b) still have enough cash on hand to fund the entire construction project, which is a . You can potentially take out a second loan with a different financier if you don't have the cash to fund the fix part, but I've been down that road and you're paying a ton in interest because you're paying double interest and the interest rates are high on these installment type loans, definitely not the 3-5% variety you get on new mortgages or HELOCs.
Trust me, I have real estate experience, I've done fix and flip, I've had it hard, especially circa 2017-2018. I've been waist deep in debt over that . Don't want to go down that road again for awhile unless the value is certainly there, and right now it's definitely not. There are no >30% net profit fix and flip deals available right now because the sellers of the project homes are up-charging because it's been such a seller's market even for old homes in ty condition. And the banks won't even fund if it's under 70% or sometimes 65% LTV. The appraisals always come in low because they don't account for the last year of sales, they go by a historical weighted average of the last 5 or 7 years or so which is BS but it's the industry.
So yeah, real estate investing sucks right now, fix and flip has been dead since 2015, and since COVID being a landlord also sucks because of all the federal and state forbearance and forgiveness and anti-eviction laws that force landlords to allow tenants to live rent free if they apply for some bogus "covid exemption"... it's all ed up government regulatory bull . And the Fed for keeping the interest rates low AF, there should be a mandatory Fed interest rate floor of 3% which I've been calling upon for at least a decade ever since the cancerous ZIRP was first implemented.
Have you actually f'ing looked at the MLS, Realtor, or even Zillow (the latter is not my favorite source, btw)? Everything move in ready is way overpriced, almost 150/sqft for decent suburban neighborhood homes in or around any of the big Texas cities, and edging 200/sqft for new constructions. Tack on more for anything with any decent acreage or other amenities or in a premium school district. Yes the overall price trend will always be up due to inflation, but for now it has really nowhere to go but down (this goes for the whole USA except for the most rural areas, not just Texas). Inventory is at a record low and we are in a historically peaked seller's market for a record and unsustainably long amount of time which has nowhere to go but trending back down toward's buyer's market or at least neutral. Interest rates aren't even the biggest factor. It's the fact that banks and credit unions aren't enforcing foreclosure as they should because of all the "covid" whining and ing and government lobbyism to not foreclose. It's bull . The mortgagees signed a contract and should be foreclosed and forced to move if they are delinquent, regardless of cir stances. If I didn't get to use job loss as an excuse in 2018, if hundreds of thousands of Americans didn't get to use the last recession as an excuse from 2008-2011, then the "covid excuse" should absolutely NOT fly today. But, you know, the Democratic Party and big government.
Not only are they "gone within a few days", they're actually non-existent if you actually know the industry right now tbh. They may look like good deals when they first hit the market, but agents have been dealing with literally dozens to even triple-digit offers over individual properties, which often turns what may look like a "good deal" on Realtor or Zillow into an overpriced one when the bidding war ends. This toxic multiple-offer-on-every-house environment has ruined the lives of countless buyers over the last few years and honestly I wouldn't mind if government stepped in and did something about it. Sellers have had it way too good of late, historically good.
Texas population is going to grow by at least 20% per decade for the next 2-3 decades. Idk why you expect Texas to become a buyer's market anytime soon. As far as another foreclosure/financial crisis, the Fed has made clear "unlimited" support for ty assets.
The government needs to have standard interest rates and keep their dirty hands off the real estate market.
It's not Texas, it's the entire USA. There is a natural ebb and flow process that has been in place for over half a century, since WWII in fact. It's roughly 8-10 years from crest-to-crest, trough-to-trough. It's been a seller's market for way too long across the USA overall, and cyclically it has nowhere to go but down right now.
I used to work for that exact BoA Merrill team as a decision science contractor working with SAS Enterprise Miner, PowerBI, Tableau, SPSS, Qlik, Excel, and the like.
How many new houses have to be built every year to house the increasing population?
Shortage on new constructions is definitely an issue, builders need to start doing their jobs properly with proper velocity, tbh
How many new houses have to be built every year to house the increasing population?
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