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  1. #4401
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    Not really. I think the case counts in the first "wave" were a gross underestimate. 10x - 20x underestimated because of poor testing in that period.

    The most reliable data is hospitalization, which is really low in Bexar county.
    10x we're still in the 1st

    20x we're in the 2nd qtr

  2. #4402
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Sounds pretty steep.There's no way to avoid all that disability, sickness and death?

    Or like, you think it's a bad idea to even try to mitigate disability, death and suffering or something like that?

    What are you driving at?
    Depends on if there is a vaccine or not. If we don't get a vaccine for five years then it won't really matter that Trump ed us, we were going to get ed anyways. Now if we get a vaccine by say the spring then whole different story, we will have had way more deaths than necessary most likely thanks to our Dear Leader sacrificing us for the stock market and for his ego.

  3. #4403
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    10x we're still in the 1st

    20x we're in the 2nd qtr
    Hope this don't go to OT

  4. #4404
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    So youre saying that extending life for 6 mos of persons who have lived past life expectancy with multiple comorbidities is more important than starving 6.7 million kids?


    Lockdowns for anti logic people
    Dude, I'm not pro-lockdown, almost nobody is. Nobody wants to starve children, wtf are you talking about?

    Can I have some of what you're drinking or smoking? I have a powerful desire to feel better than I do right now.

  5. #4405
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    Sounds pretty steep.There's no way to avoid all that disability, sickness and death?

    Or like, you think it's a bad idea to even try to mitigate disability, death and suffering or something like that?

    What are you driving at?
    I've never said that. There's a mortality rate, it's just math. Darrin thinks it's going away just cause and the rest of you think if we just do x,y, or z it will go away. It's not going away. There's a mortality rate, you pick it and what does your math say?

  6. #4406
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    I've never said that. There's a mortality rate, it's just math. Darrin thinks it's going away just cause and the rest of you think if we just do x,y, or z it will go away. It's not going away. There's a mortality rate, you pick it and what does your math say?
    I don't have a formula. No one does.

    Just noting the smug cer ude of your side and the blithe at ude toward sickness, disability and death.

  7. #4407
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Dude, I'm not pro-lockdown, almost nobody is. Nobody wants to starve children, wtf are you talking about?

    Can I have some of what you're drinking or smoking? I have a powerful desire to feel better than I do right now.
    What a ing load of crap foldren is talking about with life expectancy as if people dying of COVID were all nearly ready to be put in a grave. While the average life expectancy was around 79 in 2016, if you condition on making it to 75 it became about 87. If you condition on making it to 65 it was still 84.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2017/015.pdf

  8. #4408
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    I don't have a formula. No one does.

    Just noting the smug cer ude of your side and the blithe at ude toward sickness, disability and death.
    Nothing smug or cold hearted from me. I'm being optimistic with a .3% mortality rate.

    .1% we are pretty much at herd immunity now. Doesn't seem plausible to me, does it to you?

    .2% we are halfway there, only a couple hundred thousand more deaths. Seems too optimistic to me, what do you think?

    So I'm going with .3% (~405k more deaths) to be optimistic. Fauci says .6%, what a heartless mother er amirite?

  9. #4409
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    What a ing load of crap foldren is talking about with life expectancy as if people dying of COVID were all nearly ready to be put in a grave. While the average life expectancy was around 79 in 2016, if you condition on making it to 75 it became about 87. If you condition on making it to 65 it was still 84.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2017/015.pdf
    It's pertinent to point out US life expectancy has been going down recently, and also that foldren lowballs everything.

    COVID-19 is a PR problem for these people.They don't care how many people die, but they do notice who's dying, and at this point the racial disparities have been measured.

    The herd immunity strategy is low key racist genocide, tbh.

  10. #4410
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Nothing smug or cold hearted from me. I'm being optimistic with a .3% mortality rate.

    .1% we are pretty much at herd immunity now. Doesn't seem plausible to me, does it to you?

    .2% we are halfway there, only a couple hundred thousand more deaths. Seems too optimistic to me, what do you think?

    So I'm going with .3% (~405k more deaths) to be optimistic. Fauci says .6%, what a heartless mother er amirite?
    nobody knows, mofo

  11. #4411
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Nothing smug or cold hearted from me. I'm being optimistic with a .3% mortality rate.

    .1% we are pretty much at herd immunity now. Doesn't seem plausible to me, does it to you?

    .2% we are halfway there, only a couple hundred thousand more deaths. Seems too optimistic to me, what do you think?

    So I'm going with .3% (~405k more deaths) to be optimistic. Fauci says .6%, what a heartless mother er amirite?
    What does Osterholm say? He's the only one who has been even halfway right so far.

  12. #4412
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    why should anyone else bow to your best guess, Snake Boy?

  13. #4413
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    nobody knows, mofo
    Do you think the mortality rate is less than .1%?

  14. #4414
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Do you think the mortality rate is less than .1%?
    .67 the was the last I heard.

    6X-7X historically bad flu mortality.

    Nothingburger, obviously.

  15. #4415
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    you just said we need 450,000 more deaths.

    gotta have em, rightr?

  16. #4416
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    how many infections would that be that you say we need to get over it?

  17. #4417
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Btw, why isn't everyone doing it that way?

    Why is it necessary for the US to sustain so much more human carnage than other countries?

  18. #4418
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    10x we're still in the 1st

    20x we're in the 2nd qtr

    What about those with preexisting immunity?

  19. #4419
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Btw, why isn't everyone doing it that way?

    Why is it necessary for the US to sustain so much more human carnage than other countries?
    Because we are the capitalist empire par excellence, we will pour human souls into the mouth of Moloch even after the money-demigod bids us to cease.

  20. #4420
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    Because we are the capitalist empire par excellence, we will pour human souls into the mouth of Moloch even after the money-demigod bids us to cease.
    Or, we have a bunch of unhealthy fat s amongst us. No offense

  21. #4421
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Or, we have a bunch of unhealthy fat s amongst us. No offense
    Blaming systemic problems on personal choices is a trope.

    I see you apologizing in advance for our high rate of sickness in cold and flu season.

    I see people unclenching here in Austin. That causes me to have the opposite reaction, YMMV.

  22. #4422
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    What about those with preexisting immunity?
    No such thing to a novel virus. If you're talking about the studies which show some people may mount rapid immune responses to covid-19 due to previous non Covid-19 HCoV infections well they still got infected and they didn't contribute to the mortality rate. There's still a mortality rate though, what do you think it is?

  23. #4423
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    Or, we have a bunch of unhealthy fat s amongst us. No offense
    You went from the liar anti-Christ to riding a liar, karrin

    It was bound to happen.

  24. #4424
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    over 200k

  25. #4425
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    DMC's gonna blow a gasket at your noticing a round number.

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