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  1. #726
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    New York City is has a population of 8.4 million. Antibody testing shows an estimated infection rate of around 25%, so 0.25*8.4 = 2.1 million infected in NYC. There have been 19057 COVID deaths in NYC per the John's Hopkins stats

    19057/(2.1*10^6) = 0.0091 = 0.91%

    70% is probably a lower bound for how much of the US can get it before herd immunity starts kicking in.

    That would be at least 0.91%*0.7 = 0.64% of the population = 2.1 million dead in the US. And that's with a mortality rate from a hard lockdown that kept New York City's hospitals from being completely overrun like Northern Italy's were, where they had to start denying ventilators to anyone 60 or over when their healthcare system collapsed. If you just open the country and let SARSCov2 run unchecked there is a great chance many hotspots pop up in the US where they do get completely overwhelmed like Northern Italy was. Who knows what that 2.1 million becomes then?
    When did I say to let it run unchecked? I said masks and social distancing but the lockdown needs to stop. A crashed economy will be magnitudes more devastating than 0.9% death rate. Which I dont buy btw. NYC is a different animal than rural and suburban America. , it is much different than most large cities. It is an ideal breeding ground for any communicable disease.

    If you listened to what I said, I said it is time to stop with the bull lockdowns. Time to go back to work. There is no way 100% of the population would ever acquire this, in fact, I would guarantee it never reaches 40%. I will take my chances. I will live my life and soon everyone around you will do the same and return to work. And you will be sitting there, hand wringing, letting the world pass you by. Good grief, people die from diseases every day. The death rate isnt 10%, its very clearly under 1%, how far under 1% we will see very soon with more of the antibody studies.

  2. #727
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    When did I say to let it run unchecked? I said masks and social distancing but the lockdown needs to stop. A crashed economy will be magnitudes more devastating than 0.9% death rate. Which I dont buy btw. NYC is a different animal than rural and suburban America. , it is much different than most large cities. It is an ideal breeding ground for any communicable disease.

    If you listened to what I said, I said it is time to stop with the bull lockdowns. Time to go back to work. There is no way 100% of the population would ever acquire this, in fact, I would guarantee it never reaches 40%. I will take my chances. I will live my life and soon everyone around you will do the same and return to work. And you will be sitting there, hand wringing, letting the world pass you by. Good grief, people die from diseases every day. The death rate isnt 10%, its very clearly under 1%, how far under 1% we will see very soon with more of the antibody studies.
    Why would anyone buy your guarantee of no more than 40% of the population getting a novel virus with an R_0 thought to be between 2 and 3 that no one who hasn't already been infected by likely has any immunity to? And what makes getting COVID in NYC more lethal than getting COVID anywhere else? Also the antibody tests aren't considered rock solid yet, a lot of concern they're giving false positives. This virus keeps throwing new surprises at us.
    Last edited by baseline bum; 05-04-2020 at 08:44 PM.

  3. #728
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    When did I say to let it run unchecked? I said masks and social distancing but the lockdown needs to stop. A crashed economy will be magnitudes more devastating than 0.9% death rate. Which I dont buy btw. NYC is a different animal than rural and suburban America. , it is much different than most large cities. It is an ideal breeding ground for any communicable disease.

    If you listened to what I said, I said it is time to stop with the bull lockdowns. Time to go back to work. There is no way 100% of the population would ever acquire this, in fact, I would guarantee it never reaches 40%. I will take my chances. I will live my life and soon everyone around you will do the same and return to work. And you will be sitting there, hand wringing, letting the world pass you by. Good grief, people die from diseases every day. The death rate isnt 10%, its very clearly under 1%, how far under 1% we will see very soon with more of the antibody studies.
    15 cases to 0, soon, right? Every time you deniers and softpeddlers make a prediction, it’s wrong.

  4. #729
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    15 cases to 0, soon, right? Every time you deniers and softpeddlers make a prediction, it’s wrong.
    That is your response?

  5. #730
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    That is your response?
    If you're so mad about the shutdowns go to Trump for doing nothing for two months. It's not like China didn't lie to South Korea and Taiwan too.

  6. #731
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    Why would anyone buy your guarantee of no more than 40% of the population getting a novel virus with an R_0 thought to be between 2 and 3 that no one who hasn't already been infected by likely has any immunity to? And what makes getting COVID in NYC more lethal than getting COVID anywhere else? Also the antibody tests aren't considered rock solid yet, a lot of concern they're giving false positives. This virus keeps throwing new surprises at us.
    Im dealing with your bull in the other thread too. And the answer to this whole crisis boils down to one very simple and easy question. Do you think the death of 0.5% of the population should outweigh the catastrophic financial consequences that will lead to not only significant loss of life, but also the decreased prosperity and financial future for our country by continuing the quarantine? I am fine with social distancing and masks, but the quarantine needs to be done. And you keep dancing around the question. Young healthy people (Aged 0-60) arent dying from this, its time for them to work.

  7. #732
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    Reopen America. Don’t be scared of germs.

  8. #733
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    what is the very least amount of people you need to conduct a game?

    players, maybe less coaches, maybe less trainers, four refs (including emergency ref), people to clean up the court (like ball boys do) cameramen... maybe it's possible to hold a game with under 45 people?

    security could wait outside the court. scorekeepers don't have to be on the sideline either, they don't even need to be in the arena.

  9. #734
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    If you're so mad about the shutdowns go to Trump for doing nothing for two months. It's not like China didn't lie to South Korea and Taiwan too.
    See, this is all about politics for you, that is very sad. Also, you are responding for exstatic. That is odd.

  10. #735
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    See, this is all about politics for you, that is very sad. Also, you are responding for exstatic. That is odd.
    Why wouldn't it be about politics when we're in this ed up situation because Trump didn't do for two months?

  11. #736
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    See, this is all about politics for you, that is very sad.
    Why should Trump be free from criticism if China isn't?

  12. #737
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    Why wouldn't it be about politics when we're in this ed up situation because Trump didn't do for two months?
    Im not here to debate about Trump, it is weird you even brought him up. I was saying that staying in lockdown is damaging our country far worse than any perceived benefits.

  13. #738
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  14. #739
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    Why should Trump be free from criticism if China isn't?
    Of course he shouldnt be, but this isnt about him, so again thats odd you brought him up out of nowhere... It is about whether the quarantine (outisde of New York/New Jersey area) is causing more damage than good, and the answer is looking like a loud and clear yes.

  15. #740
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    if american reopened you like suggested, and things were just how they were before corona... then yeah, i would be scared. because i wouldn't be as dumb as you.

  16. #741
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    Of course he shouldnt be, but this isnt about him, so again thats odd you brought him up out of nowhere... It is about whether the quarantine (outisde of New York/New Jersey area) is causing more damage than good, and the answer is looking like a loud and clear yes.
    Depends on how much economic damage you think an unrestrained pandemic will do. I'm sure there are models for that as well.

  17. #742
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    Depends on how much economic damage you think an unrestrained pandemic will do. I'm sure there are models for that as well.
    As long as you manage the load on the hospitals, which we have been doing by wearing masks and social distancing, we are ready to go. I think the states opening will prove that its time to get on with our lives. A small e is no reason for concern, a reason for concern would be overflowing hospitals.

  18. #743
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    As long as you manage the load on the hospitals, which we have been doing by wearing masks and social distancing, we are ready to go. I think the states opening will prove that its time to get on with our lives. A small e is no reason for concern, a reason for concern would be overflowing hospitals.
    Barring any national standards for reopening or testing, it's going to be nothing but chaos the rest of the year.

  19. #744
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    Barring any national standards for reopening or testing, it's going to be nothing but chaos the rest of the year.
    I think that most states will follow the reopening guidelines set by the pioneers, never gonna get all the chaos out though, I agree, but by September, this will be a minor issue.

  20. #745
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    I think that most states will follow the reopening guidelines set by the pioneers, never gonna get all the chaos out though, I agree, but by September, this will be a minor issue.
    Seems pollyannish, but you are probably much more comfortable with high death counts than most. Should work out fine by your standards.

  21. #746
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    if american reopened you like suggested, and things were just how they were before corona... then yeah, i would be scared. because i wouldn't be as dumb as you.
    u r scare I am courage, scare of a virus lmao

  22. #747
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    As long as you manage the load on the hospitals, which we have been doing by wearing masks and social distancing, we are ready to go. I think the states opening will prove that its time to get on with our lives. A small e is no reason for concern, a reason for concern would be overflowing hospitals.
    What makes you think the ' e' is going to be small? Texas, for instance, is re-opening and the COVID-19 cases are on the rise. I think we'll see deaths double.

    Barring any national standards for reopening or testing, it's going to be nothing but chaos the rest of the year.
    Unfortunately, yes.

  23. #748
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    Seems pollyannish, but you are probably much more comfortable with high death counts than most. Should work out fine by your standards.
    we live we di oh well

  24. #749
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  25. #750
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    There are a lot of medical and PR opportunities if they go through with the bubble scheme. They just shouldn't pretend they are continuing the season.

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