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  1. #951
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    Not what I said; only way the Dems win a senate seat in Kentucky is with record black turnout, 2017 Alabama election style. Only way that happens is with a well-liked black candidate.
    so you’re conceding that Bernie wouldn’t have had a chance in the general election?

    Plus, you have spent a lot of bandwidth hating on that African American voting block for supporting who they chose to.

    so is the AA voting bloc important, or a hindrance?

  2. #952
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    so you’re conceding that Bernie wouldn’t have had a chance in the general election?

    Plus, you have spent a lot of bandwidth hating on that African American voting block for supporting who they chose to.

    so is the AA voting bloc important, or a hindrance?
    In Kentucky? No, Bernie wouldnt have had a chance.

    The rest of your post is incoherent so I’m not responding to it.

  3. #953
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    In Kentucky? No, Bernie wouldnt have had a chance.

    The rest of your post is incoherent so I’m not responding to it.
    Of course you’re not. You have ranted at length about the fact that it was the AA vote that won Joe the nomination. So is that bloc beneficial or a hindrance?

    i mean I get why you may not want to answer the question, I really do.

  4. #954
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Of course you’re not. You have ranted at length about the fact that it was the AA vote that won Joe the nomination. So is that bloc beneficial or a hindrance?

    i mean I get why you may not want to answer the question, I really do.
    Not sure what any of this has to do with a senate race in Kentucky.

    I'm not going to indulge you because you feel like being a delicate snowflake.

  5. #955
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    Not sure what any of this has to do with a senate race in Kentucky.

    I'm not going to indulge you because you feel like being a delicate snowflake.


    it’s an ugly realization when you discover the lack of tolerance from a group that self identifies as “progressive”

    You’re getting there

  6. #956
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    hole TX Repug SCOTX voting RED

    Texas Supreme Court says 3 Green Party candidates must be added back to November ballot

    Local elections administrators will have to print new ballots to meet a weekend deadline to send mail ballots to overseas and military voters.

    The Texas Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered that three Green Party candidates be added back onto the November ballots after a lower court ordered them removed.

    The order is a victory for the Green Party, which focuses on climate change and social justice issues, and

    a loss for the Democratic Party, which sometimes loses more liberal voters to the latter and had sued to keep candidates off the ballots.

    It did not outline its rationale Keep hole TX RED! but said an opinion would follow.

    Democrats decried the decision as partisan by the all-Republican Supreme Court.

    many third-party candidates did not pay filing fees for the November election.

    Last month, a state appeals court sided with the Democrats who

    wanted to remove the Green Party candidates from the ballot for not paying the filing fees,

    but the Supreme Court overruled that decision.


    “The Green Party didn’t want to follow the law, and now the

    state Attorney General and Republican Texas Supreme Court have helped them flaunt it,”

    mailed ballots have to be recalled or replaced

    while military and overseas voters will be put at further risk of not having their ballots delivered on time.

    All of this because the Republican Party believes this will give them a better chance to hold on to power.

    https://www.dallasnews.com/news/poli...ovember-ballot

    In hole TX, no Law is above the Repugs



  7. #957
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    hole TX Repug SCOTX voting RED

    Texas Supreme Court says 3 Green Party candidates must be added back to November ballot

    Local elections administrators will have to print new ballots to meet a weekend deadline to send mail ballots to overseas and military voters.

    The Texas Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered that three Green Party candidates be added back onto the November ballots after a lower court ordered them removed.

    The order is a victory for the Green Party, which focuses on climate change and social justice issues, and

    a loss for the Democratic Party, which sometimes loses more liberal voters to the latter and had sued to keep candidates off the ballots.

    It did not outline its rationale Keep hole TX RED! but said an opinion would follow.

    Democrats decried the decision as partisan by the all-Republican Supreme Court.

    many third-party candidates did not pay filing fees for the November election.

    Last month, a state appeals court sided with the Democrats who

    wanted to remove the Green Party candidates from the ballot for not paying the filing fees,

    but the Supreme Court overruled that decision.


    “The Green Party didn’t want to follow the law, and now the

    state Attorney General and Republican Texas Supreme Court have helped them flaunt it,”

    mailed ballots have to be recalled or replaced

    while military and overseas voters will be put at further risk of not having their ballots delivered on time.

    All of this because the Republican Party believes this will give them a better chance to hold on to power.

    https://www.dallasnews.com/news/poli...ovember-ballot

    In hole TX, no Law is above the Repugs


    As I've said before, there's too much voter suppression/Republican control at every level in Texas for it to go blue this time around. It basically took 10 years for Virginia to go from purple to solid blue (2006 when the Dems won a close senate race to 2017 when they took the state legislature in spite of gerrymandering and <50% turnout). In Texas that process probably takes even longer.

  8. #958
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    it’s an ugly realization when you discover the lack of tolerance from a group that self identifies as “progressive”

    You’re getting there
    Again, not really a coherent thought. Point?

  9. #959
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    Again, not really a coherent thought. Point?
    Pretty simple. There is a pretty wide swath of racism and sexism that spans across broad lines of the folks that assign themselves a label of progressive

  10. #960

  11. #961
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Pretty simple. There is a pretty wide swath of racism and sexism that spans across broad lines of the folks that assign themselves a label of progressive
    How would you go about supporting that statement? What evidence do you have of this claim?

  12. #962
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Bidens edge kind of ebbs and flows.

    Currently at 77% chance of winning according to the gaming out of results at 538

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    Dems slightly favored to pick up the Senate.

    270 gives it straight up to biden, even if all the battleground states go to Trump.

    https://www.270towin.com/

  13. #963
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    didn't get DMC's check on time


  14. #964

  15. #965
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    Duly noted. Throwing money at McConnells challenger as well. McConnell needs to work for his next term, IMO.
    90% of McConnell's money comes from out of state much of it from Wall Street

  16. #966
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Only among registered independents, Arizona has more registered Republicans than Democrats so Kelly needs to be crushing her with independents in order to win.

    Also, poll released yesterday has Greenfield up by 3 on Ernst, and poll released today has Bullock 1 point behind Daines (but it also has the Green Party candidate who’s disqualified from the ballot getting 4% of the vote, theoretically most of those votes go to Bullock).

    Bullock and Greenfield have both said they’re open to nuking the filibuster, so winning at least one of those races would be huge. RandomGuy would be spending his money a lot more wisely giving to them instead of bull McGrath.

  17. #967
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    90% of McConnell's money comes from out of state much of it from Wall Street
    and you think the $50+ million McGrath has raised didn’t overwhelmingly come from outside of Kentucky? She’s getting plenty of Wall Street money to.

    They actually had a chance to challenge McConnell the same way they’re challenging Graham and they blew it with a ty candidate no one likes.

  18. #968
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Only among registered independents, Arizona has more registered Republicans than Democrats so Kelly needs to be crushing her with independents in order to win.

    Also, poll released yesterday has Greenfield up by 3 on Ernst, and poll released today has Bullock 1 point behind Daines (but it also has the Green Party candidate who’s disqualified from the ballot getting 4% of the vote, theoretically most of those votes go to Bullock).

    Bullock and Greenfield have both said they’re open to nuking the filibuster, so winning at least one of those races would be huge. RandomGuy would be spending his money a lot more wisely giving to them instead of bull McGrath.
    Pretty much. Already put a bit into Greenfields coffers.

  19. #969
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Pretty much. Already put a bit into Greenfields coffers.
    The consultant I know who's been working on senate campaigns this year basically breaks the races into these groups:

    - Hickenlooper, McSally and Gideon are rolling in money and are in good shape. Hickenlooper was running a bad campaign but Gardner pledging allegiance to Trump's SCOTUS pick basically concedes that race.
    - Cunningham should be in good shape but that's still the most important race to contribute to since it probably decides the senate and they need a ground game to make sure black voters show up.
    - Greenfield and Bullock are the races that are basically coin-flips right now but they're important since the Dems don't want to be relying on Joe Manchin to end the filibuster.
    - Ossoff (GA), Bollier (KS) and Al Gross (AK) are the dark horse candidates who have a shot if it turns into a big waive year.

    South Carolina is probably going to be out of play with evangelicals supporting Graham on a pro-life SCOTUS pick. Texas could even be winnable but it's a mediocre candidate and not worth the money.

  20. #970
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    and you think the $50+ million McGrath has raised didn’t overwhelmingly come from outside of Kentucky? She’s getting plenty of Wall Street money to.

    They actually had a chance to challenge McConnell the same way they’re challenging Graham and they blew it with a ty candidate no one likes.
    although a part of me would love to see McConnell in the Senate as part of the minority if the dems are willing to nuke the filibuster

  21. #971
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    The consultant I know who's been working on senate campaigns this year basically breaks the races into these groups:

    - Hickenlooper, McSally and Gideon are rolling in money and are in good shape. Hickenlooper was running a bad campaign but Gardner pledging allegiance to Trump's SCOTUS pick basically concedes that race.
    - Cunningham should be in good shape but that's still the most important race to contribute to since it probably decides the senate and they need a ground game to make sure black voters show up.
    - Greenfield and Bullock are the races that are basically coin-flips right now but they're important since the Dems don't want to be relying on Joe Manchin to end the filibuster.
    - Ossoff (GA), Bollier (KS) and Al Gross (AK) are the dark horse candidates who have a shot if it turns into a big waive year.

    South Carolina is probably going to be out of play with evangelicals supporting Graham on a pro-life SCOTUS pick. Texas could even be winnable but it's a mediocre candidate and not worth the money.
    I wouldn't even call Texas' candidate mediocre. I had to go look up who it was.

  22. #972
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    ing empty suit Beto would've beaten Cornyn this year.

  23. #973
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    although a part of me would love to see McConnell in the Senate as part of the minority if the dems are willing to nuke the filibuster
    Same but I think without McConnell some of the senators who might be more reasonable aren't handcuffed anymore. Someone like Gardner doesn't come out and tank his re-election chances promising to confirm Trump's pick unless someone's yanking him around. The GOP would definitely find another power broker in the senate to take McConnell's place, but odds are said power broker wouldn't be nearly as effective.

    I guess the other way to look at it is that with McConnell they know that they need to either nuke the filibuster or get nothing done. With a weaker minority leader they'd delude themselves into thinking they can "reach across the aisle".

    Regarding McGrath though - the Breonna Taylor cops are going to be let off the hook today. Instead of having Charles Booker to lead the community and rally the record turnout they would need from black Louisville voters to unseat McConnell, it'll be McGrath making some tone deaf statement that sends condolences to Taylor's family while saying and emphasizing "most cops are good."

  24. #974
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    ing empty suit Beto would've beaten Cornyn this year.
    But MJ Hegar rides a motorcycle

  25. #975
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I wouldn't even call Texas' candidate mediocre. I had to go look up who it was.
    Yeah but I'm fine with them conceding Cornyn's race this year. It's expensive as to campaign there, same reason I think dumping money into Florida is stupid when it doesn't even have a senate race. Dumping $50 million into Kentucky was also stupid when they had a ty candidate.

    It's not a complicated formula really. The charismatic and likable Democratic candidates who relate to the state's voters are doing well in purple/light red states, while the ones who are out of touch bots aren't doing well. It's not even about progressive vs. moderate in these senate races as much as its about name recognition and likability. With Mark Kelly, all you have to tell voters is "he's Gabby Gifford's husband" and he had an edge in a state Trump won.

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