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Kawhi might be coming back after the warriors game.
As we are all well aware, the Spurs are fighting for the playoffs for the first time in two decades. At this point, it seems likely that Kawhi isn't going to come walking through that door, but this team still doesn't seem to be ready to pack it in and start playing for a lottery pick.
There really is no catching the Rockets and Warriors at this point, and the Lakers are so far behind that it's fairly safe to say that they are out of the conversation as well. That leaves 8 "bubble teams" fighting for the last 6 spots - Blazers, Thunder, Jazz, Pelicans, Spurs, Timberwolves, Clippers, and Nuggets.
As of this moment, the Spurs sit in 7th place and in a three-way tie with the Pelicans and Jazz at 40-30. This weekend has been kind to the Spurs as the the Wolves, Pelicans, Clippers, and Nuggets have all lost games (with two losses coming in San Antonio).
The Blazers, Jazz, and Thunder have been on a tear lately, while the Nuggets, Clippers, and Wolves all seem to have hit a mini-skid.
The Pelicans are in an interesting stretch where they play 7 games in 9 days (due to a rescheduled game against the Pacers). They lost the first 2 of the 7 but won yesterday in Boston, and they still have to face Indiana and Houston during that gauntlet with showdowns against Portland, Cleveland, and OKC looming shortly thereafter.
There are many ways to break down this sprint for the playoffs, but the easiest way to sort it out is probably by magic numbers. So without further ado, here we go:
Magic Numbers against teams on the bubble with 12 games left:
Trailblazers (tiebreaker TBD, tied 1-1) - 17
Thunder (tiebreaker TBD, OKC leads 2-1) - 14
Jazz (Utah owns tiebreaker) - 13
Pelicans (tiebreaker TBD - NOP leads 2-1) - 13
Timberwolves (Spurs own tiebreaker) - 11
Nuggets (tiebreaker TBD, tied 2-2) - 11
Clippers (Spurs own tiebreaker) - 10
Unfortunately, the Spurs have the 2nd toughest remaining schedule behind OKC and only control their own destiny against three of these teams, but they only need to beat out two of them. All teams have some tough games coming down the stretch, so this race is far from over.
Kawhi might be coming back after the warriors game.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding this, but was is the Spurs magic number?
Thanks for doing this Dex.
A Magic Number is a combination of Spurs wins OR Opposing Team losses which guarantees that the Spurs will finish ahead of that Opposing Team.Maybe I'm misunderstanding this, but was is the Spurs magic number?
Thanks for doing this Dex.
For example, in order for the Spurs to finish ahead of the Clippers, the Spurs will have to win 10 games, the Clippers will have to lose 10 games, or any combination of the two that adds up to 10 (i.e. Spurs win 6 and Clippers lose 4).
With each Spurs win, the Magic Number will go down by 1 against every team. If one of the other teams loses, their Magic Number also goes down by 1.
Last edited by Dex; 03-19-2018 at 12:56 PM.
Got it. Thanks for explaining it to us slow-witted types.
Nice thread! I trust you plan on updating numbers after games.
Got it. Thanks for explaining it to us slow-witted types.
Definitely...more news to come.
i’m interested in the magic number to miss the POs.
Probably easiest to look at the last three on the list and whether there Spurs can reach the magic 10/11 level against those 3
thanks for this!
Spurs control their destiny over every one of those teams but Portland. A Spurs team that goes 12-0 gets at worst the four-seed. That's because the H2H games against Utah and NO count double for magic-number purposes. Same is true for OKC, save for the fact that a 12-0 Spurs would win the tie-break against OKC with the superior conference record. There'd be no need to worry after three-way ties either (and those are huge when really calculating magic numbers), because a 12-0 Spurs would have a straight-up better record against everyone but a 9-1 OKC, and as mentioned before, they'd win a H2H tie-break against them.
Of course, the likelihood of the team going 12-0 is really low and we will likely have to completely re-calibrate the scenarios within a couple of days. But magic numbers aren't about likelihood, so small chances matter just as much as sure things.
This is true. I hadn't considered the H2H matchups the Spurs have with teams on the bubble when I made that statement.
For the record, the Spurs have 5 matchups remaining with teams on the bubble:
Jazz - 3/23
Thunder - 3/29
Clippers - 4/3
Blazers - 4/7
Pelicans - 4/11 (and could very well be for a playoff spot)
12-0 you say.
Indeed, also, Portland has something of a gauntlet themselves coming up with only Memphis and Dallas left on the schedule as far as teams not fighting for anything. It's not out of the question for them to drop enough games to where OKC or the mess of 30-loss teams gets a chance to overtake them. The Blazers a really ty closers historically. That 4/7 game may well be a deciding factor in Blazers/Spurs seeding. For magic-number purposes, it counts for three whole points.
I'd rather get warriors second round. Either take them out, or make it a super tiredsome series... Thinking about this, I hate the lockets more than warriettes.
Have to evaluate what I prefer. I guess don't think about it is better. Just make the playoffs. No team 1-4 seeded team would want to play the Spurs first.
Notable games tonight:
Nuggets @ Heat - Miami is also fighting for their playoff lives and clinging to the 8th seed in the East, while the Nuggets are on the outside looking in with their 9th place spot. Both teams should come out fighting, and a loss for Denver would push them further away from the playoff picture.
Warriors @ Spurs - For the first time in three seasons, Golden State actually seems to be dealing with injury issues, and the Spurs need to take advantage. Curry, Durant, and Thompson are all out, and several other reserves are hobbled. Spurs have a full clip other than Kawhi. Two weeks ago, this seemed like a scheduled loss. Picking up a win on what would've been one of the toughest games left on the schedule would be huge.
Mentally, I think, a loss tonight would be particularly damaging. Spurs losing to the end of the Warriors' bench, at home, might suck the recently acquired wind out of their sails. Hoping we see a great effort from the Spurs tonight.
Spurs are making it in by default.
Nuggets and Clippers suck too much.
Nuggets have lost to Mavericks and Grizzlies the last 2 weeks, and including tonight have 8 of their last 12 on the road.
The Clippers haven't beaten any of the current top 8 western conference teams since the end of January.
Spurs probably get the easy unexpected win against the Warriors and that should seal it. The difficulty of their schedule isn't that bad compared to other teams in the mix. Unimpressive Wizards twice, should be an easy split. The reeling bucks. An easy win against the Kings. OKC at home.
If you tally the current streaks of the top 7 teams in the west, the combined record is 38 - 1. The bottom 8 combined streaks is 0 - 23.
Why do I get that deja vu feeling that our last game in New Orleans will be make all the difference in seeding?
Trailblazers (tiebreaker TBD, tied 1-1) - 16
Thunder (tiebreaker TBD, OKC leads 2-1) - 13
Jazz (Utah owns tiebreaker) - 12
Pelicans (tiebreaker TBD - NOP leads 2-1) - 12
Timberwolves (Spurs own tiebreaker) - 10
Nuggets (tiebreaker TBD, tied 2-2) - 9
Clippers (Spurs own tiebreaker) - 9
I believe this is today's rundown, simple math, spurs win subtract one, nuggets lose subtract one from them
Thanks, K...
Notable games for tonight (3/20):
Thunder @ Boston - Boston will be without Kyrie Iriving, Jalen Brown, and Marcus Smart, so they are not as threatening as their record makes them seem. They will be hard pressed to beat the surging Thunder, but Brad Stevens has a good system and his guys always play hard.
Clippers @ Timberwolves - These type of games are great for our Magic Numbers, as the Spurs are bound to gain ground on one of these teams tonight.
Mavericks @ Pelicans - Cuban basically already came out and said that the Mavericks aren't trying to win games, so I would be surprised to see the Pelicans lose this one.
Hawks @ Jazz - Atlanta is also participating in the Tankathon, so ditto. However, the Nuggets did lose to the Grizzles (who were threatening the longest losing streak record), so I guess anything is possible.
Rockets @ Blazers - The Rockets should definitely give the Trailblazers some fits, but Portland has been no slouch recently either. Let's hope Harden shoots 50 free throws and Houston does us a solid.
Even without Kawhi, it is gonna take the Spurs wetting themselves badly in the last 11 games for them to miss the playoffs..
Looks like Clippers and Nuggets will be the two odd teams out..
We just need to make sure we are out of the Rockets/Warriors way and take our chances with whoever we get, preferably not OKC (starpower + Adams covers Aldridge pretty well)
Go hawks
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