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  1. #51
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I guess that kinda makes sense. Race shouldn't be a consideration but keeping like minded communities together makes sense. Michigan also loses one representative this time around so it will be only 13 and not 14 here. keeping it 7-6 one side or the other most likely depending on how they draw it... The main thing would be keeping the margins high and keeping the races distant and not close.

    -inner detroit district
    -outer detroit/detroit inner suburbs district
    -detroit outer suburbs district, going up to Flint & Saginaw
    -Ann Arbor to Lansing district, possibly including Jackson
    -Grand Rapids to Muskegon district
    -Kalamazoo to Battle Creek district

    that's 6 democrat districts, so probably the other 7 for the GOP.
    You’re massively under counting Detroit and forgetting a Flint Saginaw district that’s likely D, but the last two districts on your list are harder than you’d think to draw just because of how the populations are laid out. Either district would be a gift for Democrats. Right now the Dems in MI have 5 Detroit area districts, 1 Lansing/outer Detroit exurb district, and 1 Flint/Saginaw district. I don’t expect that to change much.

    Also whether race should or shouldn’t be a consideration federal law mandates that it is . Any MI commission map that doesn’t have two majority black districts in Detroit (which actually hurts Dems because it packs their votes into 2 districts) would get thrown out in court.

  2. #52
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    You’re massively under counting Detroit and forgetting a Flint Saginaw district that’s likely D, but the last two districts on your list are harder than you’d think to draw just because of how the populations are laid out. Either district would be a gift for Democrats. Right now the Dems in MI have 5 Detroit area districts, 1 Lansing/outer Detroit exurb district, and 1 Flint/Saginaw district. I don’t expect that to change much.

    Also whether race should or shouldn’t be a consideration federal law mandates that it is . Any MI commission map that doesn’t have two majority black districts in Detroit (which actually hurts Dems because it packs their votes into 2 districts) would get thrown out in court.
    Well they are losing one from the electoral college so that mandates that they lose one seat as well... wonder where they'll rob from.

    if all of Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Muskegon, majority-black Muskegon Heights, and Battle Creek are included in red seats, that's a big win for the GOP because there are plenty of liberals around here, especially within the millennial female demographic.

  3. #53
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Well they are losing one from the electoral college so that mandates that they lose one seat as well... wonder where they'll rob from.

    if all of Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Muskegon, majority-black Muskegon Heights, and Battle Creek are included in red seats, that's a big win for the GOP because there are plenty of liberals around here, especially within the millennial female demographic.
    The 4th district in rural north Mi is the one that’s likely to go away. It’s had the most population loss and the districts near it (1st and 2nd) also need to pick up population. The city of Detroit itself has lost population but the suburbs and exurbs have grown, so the Detroit MSA as a whole is unlikely to lose a seat.

    Also the existing map for Michigan has all of those places in red districts.

  4. #54
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    The 4th district in rural north Mi is the one that’s likely to go away. It’s had the most population loss and the districts near it (1st and 2nd) also need to pick up population. The city of Detroit itself has lost population but the suburbs and exurbs have grown, so the Detroit MSA as a whole is unlikely to lose a seat.

    Also the existing map for Michigan has all of those places in red districts.
    so bottom line - ergo it will go from 7-7 to 7-6 Democrat advantage.

    what's going on with Wisconsin? only 8 seats there I believe.

  5. #55
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    for anyone confused, take this map and subtract two (i.e., 2 senators) when trying to figure out how many seats are in a given state. this is the most recent ecv map based on 2020 census.

  6. #56
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    so bottom line - ergo it will go from 7-7 to 7-6 Democrat advantage.

    what's going on with Wisconsin? only 8 seats there I believe.
    IMO it's gonna be 6-6-1. There's gonna be at least one district in MI that's a coinflip (or close to it).

    Wisconsin has geography for democrats. The map is unlikely to change much, but with Ron Kind retiring it probably goes from 5-3 GOP to 6-2 GOP. Only path to the Dems getting a 3rd district in WI back is Chicagoland bleeding more into SE Wisconsin so Paul Ryan's old district turns blue. Other than that, you have two deep blue population centers in WI (Madison & Milwaukee), while the rest of the state is geneously R+15, so a 6-2 map isn't even really a gerrymander, it's just how the state is laid out.

    As I said months ago, California is going to be the redistricting x-factor. If the Dems manage to successfully hijack the "independent" commission in CA, the 42-11 map CA has now can easily become a 45-7 map (CA is also losing a district), and the Dems might even pick up seats in redistricting nationally.
    Last edited by Will Hunting; 09-27-2021 at 06:47 PM.

  7. #57
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    IMO it's gonna be 6-6-1. There's gonna be at least one district in MI that's a coinflip (or close to it).

    Wisconsin has geography for democrats. The map is unlikely to change much, but with Ron Kind retiring it probably goes from 5-3 GOP to 6-2 GOP. Only path to the Dems getting a 3rd district in WI back is Chicagoland bleeding more into SE Wisconsin so Paul Ryan's old district turns blue. Other than that, you have two deep blue population centers in WI (Madison & Milwaukee), while the rest of the state is geneously R+15, so a 6-2 map isn't even really a gerrymander, it's just how the state is laid out.

    As I said months ago, California is going to be the redistricting x-factor. If the Dems manage to successfully hijack the "independent" commission in CA, the 42-11 map CA has now can easily become a 45-7 map (CA is also losing a district), and the Dems might even pick up seats in redistricting nationally.
    I drove thru that area this weekend and it seemed all the way from South Milwaukee to Racine to Kenosha is essentially Chicagoland. definitely not matching my avatar which is clearly a joke.

    Gotta factor other things besides just CA, NY, etc. Montana is gaining a seat... how will it be drawn? If it's cut in half east to west, Dems might have a chance in the western half which is fairly liberal imo.

    If CA goes from 11 red districts to 7 that will be funny to see the R's like Nuñez and McCarthy cannibalize each other for a spot.

  8. #58
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I drove thru that area this weekend and it seemed all the way from South Milwaukee to Racine to Kenosha is essentially Chicagoland. definitely not matching my avatar which is clearly a joke.
    Oh that area is definitely getting bluer, but it still has a lot of ancestral R votes who voted for Biden but Republican down ballot. WI-01 isn't gonna flip without those voters flipping.

  9. #59
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Oh that area is definitely getting bluer, but it still has a lot of ancestral R votes who voted for Biden but Republican down ballot. WI-01 isn't gonna flip without those voters flipping.
    that + the same thing going on in WOW counties is why Ron Johnson keeps winning and will win next year if he runs. those are also the same voters who largely voted for Trump in 16 but Biden last year.

    WI-32 corridor MIL south is definitely very chicago-esque

  10. #60
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    that + the same thing going on in WOW counties is why Ron Johnson keeps winning and will win next year if he runs. those are also the same voters who largely voted for Trump in 16 but Biden last year.

    WI-32 corridor MIL south is definitely very chicago-esque
    The WOW counties are still ruby red at the top of the ballot too...

    Ron Johnson would get smoked if he ran again in an election year imo, he'd win next year because it's just going to be a bad year for Democrats overall.

  11. #61
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    If CA goes from 11 red districts to 7 that will be funny to see the R's like Nuñez and McCarthy cannibalize each other for a spot.
    McCarthy is safe, it's near impossible to make his district compe ive or to draw him out.

    Nunes could be drawn out but it would definitely be a gerrymander.

    The Republicans in CA in trouble are the ones in SoCal who barely won by <5% last year.

  12. #62
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    McCarthy is safe, it's near impossible to make his district compe ive or to draw him out.

    Nunes could be drawn out but it would definitely be a gerrymander.

    The Republicans in CA in trouble are the ones in SoCal who barely won by <5% last year.



    Nunes is the smallish red district in the Central Valley, McCarthy is in the large red district adjacent to the right just north of the Inland Empire, just one district west of the giant red district bordering Nevada.

    I feel like Nunes could be easily drawn out if they included Fresno for example

  13. #63
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Nunes is the smallish red district in the Central Valley, McCarthy is in the large red district adjacent to the right just north of the Inland Empire, just one district west of the giant red district bordering Nevada.

    I feel like Nunes could be easily drawn out if they included Fresno for example
    Dude I’ve literally spent hours on DRA drawing California maps , Nunes isn’t as easy to draw out as one might think.

  14. #64
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    Texas Republicans release proposal for new congressional boundaries

    that bolsters GOP districts


    Republicans have proposed new congressional boundaries that provide protection for North Texas in bents,

    but doesn’t give the fast-growing Dallas/Fort Worth area one of two new seats earmarked for the Lone Star State.

    Despite the remarkable population growth powered by minority residents in the Dallas/Fort Worth region,

    Texas Republican lawmakers opted to place the new districts in the Austin and Houston areas.

    The Austin-area seat would be favorable to a Democratic candidate,

    while the new Houston-area district is overwhelmingly Republican.

    Neither new seat would be in a minority opportunity district,

    even though the vast majority of the population growth in Texas was propelled by Hispanic residents.


    The proposed map is a clinic on in bency protection.

    -- Dallas Morning News

    "The s will not replace us!"

  15. #65
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    This CA map would be possible if the re s in CA didn't pass an independent commission and take control away from Democrats


  16. #66
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    This map for Maryland would be ruthless and it's actual possible. Creates the two majority black districts needed under the VRA and makes every seat Biden +19 or better


  17. #67
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    This CA map would be possible if the re s in CA didn't pass an independent commission and take control away from Democrats

    why would 42 be red?

  18. #68
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Would be very tough for it to be blue. The neighboring parts of 36/51 are also red. 4 is the district you could actually make tilt blue with some ery.

  19. #69
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Would be very tough for it to be blue. The neighboring parts of 36/51 are also red. 4 is the district you could actually make tilt blue with some ery.
    what exactly is 42 though? the Inland Empire? I would think it would be left of center...

  20. #70
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    what exactly is 42 though? the Inland Empire? I would think it would be left of center...
    Yes. Think Temecula area.

  21. #71
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Yes. Think Temecula area.
    I think then that it will flip at some point this decade. that area has one of the highest % of mixed race people in the entire nation, and it's not just whites and Mexicans... it's also lots of Asians and blacks. Mixed race people (or people who self-identify as mixed race) vote Democrat at a higher % even than Hispanics, blacks and Asians that are not mixed race.

    Mixed race self identifiers are the most liberal of all Americans on average. And that will never change even if Mexicans and blacks continue to trend towards the right. Because being multicultural is inherently a left of center concept while being ethnocentric is inherently right of center, regardless of which race or ethnicity you actually are. The GOP absolutely secretly hates interracial marriage and procreation because of this tbh.

  22. #72
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    Texas appears to be paying a secretive Republican political operative $120,000 annually

    Adam Foltz, now on the Texas payroll, played a key role in Wisconsin's redistricting last decade

    A Republican redistricting operative whose clandestine work helped drag Wisconsin into a legal morass last decade appears to now be on the payroll of the Texas Legislature

    as lawmakers work to redraw maps that will determine the distribution of political power for years to come.

    Foltz played a key role in a tight-lipped and questionable redrawing process that shut out Democrats and drew the condemnation of federal judges who described it as “needlessly secret,”

    Foltz has not been a visible part of the committee's public facing work.

    Foltz is actually on the payroll of the

    Texas Legislative Council, a nonpartisan state agency

    that supports the Legislature in drafting and analyzing proposed legislation —

    and manages the internal mapping tool lawmakers use to redraw political maps.


    https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/texas/article/operative-gop-voter-supression-texas-adam-foltz-16497528.php

  23. #73
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    Texas' GOP-drawn redistricting maps look ripe for defeat in a court challenge

    aren't just likely to face lawsuits, a top voting-rights legal scholar predicts:

    they'll likely face courtroom defeats.

    "Seeing the proposed plans now by the state, they'll be easy to beat,"

    meant to protect seats now held by Republicans while minimizing the voting power of people of color, who are more likely to support Democrats.

    While more than 60% of Texas residents are people of color,

    the maps proposed so far by the Lege would give white people voting majorities in half of the state's congressional districts,

    the data from the latest census shows that people of color fueled 95% of Texas’ population growth over the past decade.

    https://www.sacurrent.com/sanantonio/texas-gop-drawn-redistricting-maps-look-ripe-for-defeat-in-a-court-challenge-legal-scholar-says

  24. #74
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    PRINCETON SCIENTISTS GIVE TEXAS AN ‘F’ FOR PROPOSED DISTRICT MAPS

    To arrive at the letter grade, the team judges congressional and state district lines by their partisan fairness, compe iveness, and geographic features.

    By geographic features, they mean how wild and squiggly the district lines are, and whether the lines split counties and fail to respect political subdivisions.


    “We look at things how compact the districts are — nobody actually draws districts like this, but

    the closer to a circle, the better and more ideal a district is,”

    “The congressional map only has two districts that are compe ive, and I will be honest with you, they’re kind of barely compe ive,”

    “They’re sort of right on the edge of our compe ive range. So really this map is pretty clearly a partisan gerrymander.”

    In a dozen of the districts, Republicans have drawn themselves an average partisan win percentage of 60 to 63 percent, making it just out of the ideal range to be a compe ive seat (46.5-53.5%).

    “What it tells us is that Republicans decided there’s a range that they think is a safe seat, they decided it was the 60 to 70 percent zone, and then they probably used a computer to generate as many districts as they could in that zone,” Podowitz-Thomas said.

    “They don’t think those are going to flip over the next decade.”

    “It’s too neat, it’s too clean, this is not hand-drawn,”

    “This is somebody using a sophisticated computer to generate this map.”


    “You can get a computer to generate a really nice-looking map that does terrible things in elections.”

    “Now you can draw a gerrymander that’s pretty much gonna last all decade unless there are dramatic partisan shifts in the electorate.”

    https://texassignal.com/princeton-sc...-district-maps

  25. #75
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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