Called it. Refrigerated carcass trucks called back into action

[DMC]

thdren cut way back on his posting after he learned from me that ten Texas hospitals were indeed at capacity last week. None of them can ever admit being wrong about anything.

Cause vs correlation - you'll always take the "w" if you can twist it that way. If not, you'll spend all night and 40 pages trying to rebuild the path so you can.

[TimDunkem]

DMC wants to make it personal about TD too.

It's really all he has after he drops his facade.

He's so mad.

[DMC]

I've been home since, tbh.

You were the one fretting about losing your job while being at work with a fever during a pandemic. It wasn't a narrative anyone here created.

[TimDunkem]

You were the one fretting about losing your job while being at work with a fever during a pandemic. It wasn't a narrative anyone here created.

K? It has since been cleared up and I've enjoyed a lengthy vacation at home. Get dat internet W tho.

[midnightpulp]

Data is either relevant or it's not. Argument from authority doesn't make it either way though given a situation where I must trust one or the other based on nothing more than credentials, I'll take the doctor over the Youtube view farmer.

If you look at daily deaths you always see the weekend sawtooth. Those deaths get counted on other days. Why would that be? If Bob died on Saturday, ok count him on Saturday. Why count Bob's death on Monday as Monday's death total? Back date the death to the proper day and adjust the charts. The death total overall will not change but the data will be more accurate.

Hospitalizations do not equal deaths. People who would have been hospitalized for pneumonia a couple months ago are probably being more accurately diagnosed now. In fact the increased pneumonia death rate in Texas pretty clearly delineates that Texas had a higher death rate than previously stated, so the "trend", if adjusted to be accurate, would be flatter imo.

Hospitalizations are an indication of how serious the situation is. They indicate a trend toward rising deaths. Yes, not everyone who is hospitalized is going to die, but more serious cases will simply translate into more deaths.

To account for the weekend sawtooth, it's more helpful to look at 7 day moving averages. In any event, boiled down: The Covid situation is more serious than it has been since New York was peaking. More people are dying right now and over the last week since that peak. Deaths will likely trend up for 2 weeks at least.

There's no use trying to find some light at the end of the tunnel by thinking the increased deaths are simply statistical aberrations and in reality we're flattening the death curve. We aren't.

[DMC]

He's so mad.

So mad that I even gave you the laws that allow you to get tested and not get fired for doing so.

Really angry. Cast your lot with Chumpy. It suits you.

[ChumpDumper]

He took you to the woodshed and you've been in shambles since. He played your game and beat you at it.

By being wrong from the very start?

I always answer questions about my takes.

That's just a lie, dude. You get angry and you make it personal. It's what you do. It's all a distraction from your bad takes like your refrigerated trailer conspiracy theory.

[ChumpDumper]

Hospitalizations are an indication of how serious the situation is. They indicate a trend toward rising deaths. Yes, not everyone who is hospitalized is going to die, but more serious cases will simply translate into more deaths.

To account for the weekend sawtooth, it's more helpful to look at 7 day moving averages. In any event, boiled down: The Covid situation is more serious than it has been since New York was peaking. More people are dying right now and over the last week than during that peak. Deaths will likely trend up for 2 weeks at least.

There's no use trying to find some light at the end of the tunnel by thinking the increased deaths are simply statistical aberrations and in reality we're flattening the death curve. We aren't.

His light at the end of the tunnel is changing the subject to Cuomo.

[TimDunkem]

So mad that I even gave you the laws that allow you to get tested and not get fired for doing so.

Really angry. Cast your lot with Chumpy. It suits you.

And I thank you. I'm literally telling you the situation was cleared up but you keep running with a negative spin on it to get your internet W.

Keep casting your lot with the tholdren and Derps of the world though. It certainly suits you, fat man.

[TimDunkem]

By being wrong from the very start?

That's just a lie, dude. You get angry and you make it personal. It's what you do. It's all a distraction from your bad takes like your refrigerated trailer conspiracy theory.

Basically. It's like clockwork with him.

[midnightpulp]

His light at the end of the tunnel is changing the subject to Cuomo.

This entire thing has become political, unfortunately. Conservatives just don't want to accept that there's once again a peak coming because they fear maybe a shutdown which hurts the economy which hurts Trump. Or the conspiratorial types who think wearing a mask is the equivalent of the Nazis labeling Jews with gold stars.

"B-B-But libruls hype the situation hoping to hurt Trump!"

Perhaps some do, but I got into arguments with MannyisGod and Winehole at the start of it by saying this isn't the black plague. And I didn't like the media's reporting early on, with the constant Italy footage and flashing the Imperial projections on screen (i.e. Experts Project Up To 2 Million Dead).

[ChumpDumper]

Cause vs correlation - you'll always take the "w" if you can twist it that way. If not, you'll spend all night and 40 pages trying to rebuild the path so you can.

He couldn't even acknowledge that he read it. He just quietly stopped using "Texas hospitals not full" as one of his troll lines.

It was a bad take that got destroyed by reality. It doesn't really matter who posted the reality. It was inevitable.

[DMC]

Hospitalizations. They are accelerating. And deaths follow the hospitalizations and case curves pretty linearly.

This professor's projections have been right on.

What is happening "right now," is that clinics are being overwhelmed in these hotspots, which the hospitalization data shows. Presumably, deaths will follow these trends. Only thing that I could see bending the death curve is we've gotten much better a treating critical patients. But nothing is trending positively right now.

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...1#post10179994

I was using the 7 day moving average then.

[DMC]

And I thank you. I'm literally telling you the situation was cleared up but you keep running with a negative spin on it to get your internet W.

Keep casting your lot with the tholdren and Derps of the world though. It certainly suits you, fat man.

You're likely fatter than me.

I'm just calling it like I see it. Situation cleared up, but you're here acting like it never happened. You went from victim to cheerleader.

[Spurtacular]

Hospitalizations are an indication of how serious the situation is. They indicate a trend toward rising deaths.

But you'll somehow have your bases covered when the death rate doesn't go up.

[DMC]

By being wrong from the very start?

That's just a lie, dude. You get angry and you make it personal. It's what you do. It's all a distraction from your bad takes like your refrigerated trailer conspiracy theory.

No conspiracy theory (another lie you just manufactured out of thin air in your quest for a "w"). Wrongly connecting dots on this site doesn't equate to a conspiracy

tholdren destroyed you. Your allies here can like and +1 all your they want, it won't change that.

[DMC]

But you'll somehow have your bases covered when the death rate doesn't go up.

I don't believe the discussion is about deathrate. I think it's about total fatalities. I think the rate will go down as we develop better treatments. Of course the death rate I am referring to is the number of infected vs the number of deaths, aka ifr, not death per population which would affect morgue space.

[midnightpulp]

But you'll somehow have your bases covered when the death rate doesn't go up.

As DMC said, not talking about death rate. I know it's probably around .3 percent to .6 percent (CFR doesn't equal IFR). Deaths will go up, though. They already are.

[ChumpDumper]

This entire thing has become political, unfortunately. Conservatives just don't want to accept that there's once again a peak coming because they fear maybe a shutdown which hurts the economy which hurts Trump. Or the conspiratorial types who think wearing a mask is the equivalent of the Nazis labeling Jews with gold stars.

"B-B-But libruls hype the situation hoping to hurt Trump!"

Perhaps some do, but I got into arguments with MannyisGod and Winehole at the start of it by saying this isn't the black plague. And I didn't like the media's reporting early on, with the constant Italy footage and flashing the Imperial projections on screen (i.e. Experts Project Up To 2 Million Dead).

I cited the 400k dead projection by the Nebraska epidemiologist a lot in the beginning. Even looking up the information about that I could tell that projections can be way off but still useful in spurring a general direction of policy and action. I also found out that right off the bat the most basic things were being mischaracterized like when most everyone was calling it an official AMA projection. It's been downhill ever since.

The increased politicization on the right is a defense mechanism IMO. Trump supporters can't possibly admit Trump ed up worse than any president in history, so they have to find others to blame AND question whether things are actually as bad a Trump helped make things. You see it every day here, right down to ing refrigerated truck conspiracy theories.

The thing that pisses me off most is that Texas WAS doing pretty well. Seems all we needed to do was open up more slowly with an actual plan to put the brakes on the expected rise in cases/hospitaizations/deaths. Instead we let the Balous Miller Strike Force just make up a plan out of whole cloth. The absolute best case scenario was the only one that was planned out. All the time and initial discipline and cooperation was wasted.

Now the Trump supporters are transitioning to the the Ivan Drago plan. If they die, they die.

[ChumpDumper]

No conspiracy theory (another lie you just manufactured out of thin air in your quest for a "w"). Wrongly connecting dots on this site doesn't equate to a conspiracy

tholdren destroyed you. Your allies here can like and +1 all your they want, it won't change that.

You're wrongly connecting the dots there. Don't get angry.

You've been looking for revenge ever since you wrongly connected imply and infer. It was a simple mistake.

[ChumpDumper]

But you'll somehow have your bases covered when the death rate doesn't go up.

It's already going up.

[TimDunkem]

You're likely fatter than me.

I'm just calling it like I see it. Situation cleared up, but you're here acting like it never happened. You went from victim to cheerleader.

no. I've seen those sausages you call fingers.

[Winehole23]

This entire thing has become political, unfortunately. Conservatives just don't want to accept that there's once again a peak coming because they fear maybe a shutdown which hurts the economy which hurts Trump. Or the conspiratorial types who think wearing a mask is the equivalent of the Nazis labeling Jews with gold stars.

"B-B-But libruls hype the situation hoping to hurt Trump!"

Perhaps some do, but I got into arguments with MannyisGod and Winehole at the start of it by saying this isn't the black plague. And I didn't like the media's reporting early on, with the constant Italy footage and flashing the Imperial projections on screen (i.e. Experts Project Up To 2 Million Dead).

2 million dead if we do nothing wasn't an unreasonable projection, we could conceivably get to half a million deaths in the 12 month period.

Considering what hospitals in Texas are going through now and what NYC hospitals just went through, it was hardly irresponsible to splash Italy all over the news --- the opposite of this seems true to me.

Btw, neither Manny or I have compared COVID-19 to the Black Plague. Haven't seen anyone here who did, tbh.

[SnakeBoy]

So 44 more deaths a day are filling up the morgues in the entire state of Arizona, and 100 a day in Texas? Really? Were they that pressed for space?

I'd say it's more likely morgues don't want COVID corpses. Otherwise, an event that killed, say... 3000 people would totally swamp Texas morgues (but people go to morgues in counties where they die).

The half truth/all out bull meter here is pegged.

True there's a lot of half truths/bull just for fear mongering. The actual situation is explained in the article.

People who die in hospitals or in nursing homes under a doctor’s care don’t usually go through the medical examiner’s office and will not go to the county morgue.

In Houston, a spokeswoman at the Harris County Ins ute of Forensic Sciences insisted that no extra capacity is needed at the county morgue right now. But individual hospitals are also counting on refrigerated trucks to expand their morgue’s capacity. HCA Healthcare Northwest confirmed to the Houston Chronicle that a refrigerated trailer is being used as temporary storage before the transfer from the hospital to funeral homes.

Williamson County had assembled a mobile morgue to be prepared, but it was returned to its vendor around June 1, given that the county has not seen large volumes of deaths in a short period of time. Their capacity is currently 50 bodies, between hospitals, funeral homes and the county morgue. A mobile unit “would be quite easy to add,” if the toll gets dire, county Judge Bill Gravell said.

[Spurtacular]

It's already going up.

This a real-time summation?