Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[DMC]

Are you really still wondering why the governments of the world are shutting over COVID and not the seasonal flu?

It's pretty funny how such a super sleuth like you would prefer to use his skills to dig up info on spurstalk posters instead of easy to find answers to his real world questions

No, I know why. The method for death rate is the topic. Set aside crumb snatching for a minute you might realize it. Unlike you, I don't need to hire a PI to do my research.

[Thread]

Drove to the Post Office an hour ago.

You ain't going to believe this but I came across 2 Estate Sales! You're walking around in a dead old person's home with primarily old living people.

Our Gov/Arizona put in place a stay at home order yesterday, except for essential places to remain open. Golf courses on the essential list! Nail salons as well.

[Blake]

No, I know why. The method for death rate is the topic. Set aside crumb snatching for a minute you might realize it. Unlike you, I don't need to hire a PI to do my research.

K, I'll leave you to your ramblings that have nothing to do with anything then. Carry on.

[Blake]

Drove to the Post Office an hour ago.

You ain't going to believe this but I came across 2 Estate Sales! You're walking around in a dead old person's home with primarily old living people.

Our Gov/Arizona put in place a stay at home order yesterday, except for essential places to remain open. Golf courses on the essential list! Nail salons as well.

Call the cops. After your purchase.

[CosmicCowboy]

[Thread]

Call the cops. After your purchase.

Honest to God, I registered my aghast, broke, but, resisted & drove on home stopping at the Circle K to purchase 2 Caramellow Bars.

[ElNono]

It says 2m antibody testing kit.

Thanks

[ElNono]

"The Bodysphere two-minute test can only detect the coronavirus in people who have had the infection for several days, meaning the test can't be used too early on when the body hasn't produced enough antibodies."

Thanks, couldn’t read the link earlier

[Pelicans78]

"The Bodysphere two-minute test can only detect the coronavirus in people who have had the infection for several days, meaning the test can't be used too early on when the body hasn't produced enough antibodies."

Sounds like the mono spot

[MannyIsGod]

That's what I did from the beginning, but I was told only the initial Imperial study and its projections "counted."

By who?

[MannyIsGod]

And credit MannyIsGod for the 538 article. I'd like to highlight a few passages:



For a goddamn week I've been talking about how these studies could shed better light on what the ratio of mild/asymptomatic to severe cases might be. I was basically shouted down and told to "trust the experts!" experts in this case being the Imperial Study and similar studies that share those projections.



Been saying this for a week, that you can't neatly compare regions 1 to 1, and that population density, weather, social behavior, and primary method of travel (mass transit vs. cars) play a big role in spread. I was told to shut up and prepare for every part of the country to become Italy or a mini-Italy.

.

Yep. And compared with other models and opinions, the Imperial model is more wrong from my point-of-view. But I (nor anyone else) is not allowed to have that point-of-view because I'm "not an expert," even though I'm invoking expert opinion.

You're allowed to h ave whatever opinion you want. I've repeatedly told you why what you say is wrong and not the same as what experts say, but you are apparently unable to process this. 71 people out of ~9000 tests doesn't' bode well for your theories, btw.


I don't know what to tell you anymore, and you don't seem to understand the things I do say, so I'll just save my breath (keystrokes).

[MannyIsGod]

This is something I hadn't considered as to one way the testing numbers are being inflated somewhat. Still seems more prudent to look at proxies where available (or at least use both to provide context).

[midnightpulp]

By who?

Basically you. You've stuck by the Imperial model and other like doomsday projections from day 1, and have pretty much ignored contrary studies.

[MannyIsGod]

Basically you. You've stuck by the Imperial model and other like doomsday projections from day 1, and have pretty much ignored contrary studies.

Would love for you to find the post where I told you anything like that.

I'll wait.

[DMC]

K, I'll leave you to your ramblings that have nothing to do with anything then. Carry on.

You should always adapt that stance with me. You rarely if ever have anything to add.

[DMC]

I dismissed the Imperial Study pretty much right away. Not sure why anyone else thought it was the book of Revelations.

[hater]

I dismissed the Imperial Study pretty much right away. Not sure why anyone else thought it was the book of Revelations

bendover Ill show you a revelation

[SnakeBoy]

Good news...Foo Fighters have rescheduled their tour for this December when the Wuhan Flu is gone

[Thread]

I dismissed the Imperial Study pretty much right away. Not sure why anyone else thought it was the book of Revelations.

Love the part in Revelations where it talks about the end of times...{not verbatim,} but, ballpark:::saw it on the preface to the film:::"Devil's Due" which got roundly panned, but, is quite the goods...

"The anti-Christ will come. There will be many anti-Christs."

[StormLuva]

Basically you. You've stuck by the Imperial model and other like doomsday projections from day 1, and have pretty much ignored contrary studies.

you’re talking to a guy who routinely hopes for the worst case scenario. He’s been called out for years on this site for blowing a load whenever there’s mass casualties whether it’s natural disasters or a pandemic such as this.


I would seriously bow out if I were you. He would rather sacrifice his first born son than have the coronavirus turn out to be a dud. Whenever Manny thinks there’s a good chance for numerous amount of deaths he’s going to stick to his opinion by life or death hoping it comes to fruition tbh.

[Medvedenko]

Watching that COVID update from Trump et al was very depressing. Watching them go through graphs that show the death rate and how cavalier they were on the # of deaths. I get it and it makes sense, but watching Fauci and Deb go through it was a lot better than Trump trying to dumb down the #'s. I feel bad for the USA. Good luck everyone and stay safe.

[midnightpulp]

You're allowed to h ave whatever opinion you want. I've repeatedly told you why what you say is wrong and not the same as what experts say, but you are apparently unable to process this. 71 people out of ~9000 tests doesn't' bode well for your theories, btw.


I don't know what to tell you anymore, and you don't seem to understand the things I do say, so I'll just save my breath (keystrokes).

Because you're regurgitating the opinion of a select group of experts. Have you bothered to read the University of Maryland study (funny how you were quick to call the warm weather "bunk" based on the isolated situation in LA, when warm weather climates haven't exploded like cold weather climates to anywhere near the same degree. Look at Australia. Lord Fauci himself admitted this is probably seasonal). Have you bothered to look at the University of Washington projections? Have you read the opinions of the other leading experts, like John Ioannidis, Paul Auwaerter, the Oxford Study, and the many interviewed experts who have gone on record in saying that CFR is very likely under 1 percent (further confirmed by the Lancet study, where the infallible Neil Ferguson was a sponsor)? I know you haven't read much into this, because you even get the data from the Iceland study wrong (538 didn't do their research, apparently).

– As of March 25, Iceland has administered 12,615 tests.
– Of those tests, Iceland has found 802 confirmed cases.

And in terms of sample size, that represents a greater proportion of the population tested than anywhere in the world.

Your bone to pick is obvious, evidenced by you calling it "my theory." No, that is the theory of "experts" in Iceland. I'm just passing the information on. But it seems you're blinded to any information that just might run contrary to the 2.4 million dead scenarios. And you keep telling me about "all these experts" who are in lockstep with the Imperial model (to clarify, THAT is what I'm challenging. Do I think this virus is going to kick our collective asses and overrun vulnerable areas? Yes. Do I think we need to be highly concerned? Yes. Do I think the worst of the worst cases is plausible? No), so who are they?

A recent paper by Fauci himself theorized that the CFR is probably well below 1 percent:

https://imgur.com/a/AEI0Y17

And this is what I've argued for a week straight. That the Imperial model is "bunk" because it assumes the Wuhan CFR, when that is looking like it's nowhere the case. This is why the "distrust of experts" exists (usually a few experts get lionized above others, in this case, Neil Ferguson and Anthony Fauci). Because there's this condescension that non-experts can't use their in' brains and make a logical deduction from evaluating all sides of the argument.

[Thread]

Watching that COVID update from Trump et al was very depressing. Watching them go through graphs that show the death rate and how cavalier they were on the # of deaths. I get it and it makes sense, but watching Fauci and Deb go through it was a lot better than Trump trying to dumb down the #'s. I feel bad for the USA. Good luck everyone and stay safe.

All 3, + Pence were evasive & just about equally so. The reporters were aghast at the reality of the information they were hearing.

[Even with mitigation] that is the number. It's graveling, sobering, frightening. Difficult to hear, even more difficult to accept. Almost a living nightmare.

ADDENDUM:::We are used to(as American)to hear such cataclysmic news with a built in out that is lit in sunshine. "But, if you do this---that won't happen." That's how we've lived all of our lives.

This wasn't that. It may be. They may be playing possum, but, they ain't giving it away like we're also used to. "Ah, he's just ing around. It'll be okay."

[Mark Celibate]

Watching that COVID update from Trump et al was very depressing. Watching them go through graphs that show the death rate and how cavalier they were on the # of deaths. I get it and it makes sense, but watching Fauci and Deb go through it was a lot better than Trump trying to dumb down the #'s. I feel bad for the USA. Good luck everyone and stay safe.

Well I’m glad Fauci made you feel better. Would hate for Trump to hurt your feelings... I’m not saying you should commit suicide but looking at the next opportunity to end your existence may not be a bad idea and could do the rest of the world a solid. In other words, kill yourself

[midnightpulp]

Would love for you to find the post where I told you anything like that.

I'll wait.

You're implied it.

"Warm weather theory is bunk." (by referring to the LA situation as the single example).

"TEXAS ISN'T LOOKING GOOD! ARE YOU IN' KIDDING ME!!!" Maybe they'll hit an inflection point, but from looking at the data, states/regions that are getting throttled usually see an inflection point within 8-12 days of their first death (and yes, we know death toll is unreliable due to the lag). Texas has been consistent day over day.

"A persistent defense the Imperial model." I felt that Ferguson's projection from 500K dead in the UK to 20K dead and then to 5700 dead in the span of like 10 minutes tells me his methodology isn't consistent and/or he isn't sharing how the changing dynamics of the situation (i.e. the lower CFR than initially thought) is altering the upper and lower bound projections. He can say all he wants that "he didn't change the model." But I smell bull . What likely happened is the input parameters changed from which those initial "doomsday" projections were made, like a lower CFR and R0. But he didn't share much with us besides, "My model is right! It's the UK's social distancing and lockdown policies that will lead to the 5700 dead." No, it's probably because he vastly overestimated the CFR and doesn't want to admit it.