Game Thread: Spurs vs Celtics - Jan 27th 2021 - 7:30PM CT

[PhantomDashCam]

Having impact plays is exactly not the same thing as being a lock-down defender. Those plays often come from gambling, and those gambles come with occasional losses. The ratio of wins to losses can certainly be on the side of a defender, but that is not the same thing as blunting a player's effectiveness up and down the court. You can look at the NFL for a clearer example. A guy can get a lot of interceptions while not being a shut-down corner, because QBs have to keep throwing at the corner's man. They won't do that unless they feel like they can win the match-up.

Anyways, I didn't say anything about Walker being better than Johnson as a player or whatever. I am answering the question as to why Pop using Walker as the designated defender for wings over Johnson as often as he does. It's because despite the reputation from the first few games, Johnson isn't an elite iso defender and because out of all the perimeter players who aren't DeRozan, Walker makes the most sense as the designated man-defender. Johnson causes chaos; Murray causes turnovers. Both of those things happen best when they are not charged with being the designated guy. If Walker were replaced by another player, that player would also have to be the designated man-defender. Hence why Vassell came in for Walker rather than Mills in the first half. The Spurs' scheme works best with Walker as the guy holding the shield while Johnson and Murray stab folks from behind it. When we're talking about smalls, Johnson hasn't shone himself to be a superior defender to the extent that Pop should change his scheme. Tonight was a great example for how well it can work. Folks focusing on the times Tatum overcame Walker doesn't change how great of an outing it was for the Spurs' defense as a whole.

To add to this - a defensive possession doesn't conclude on a missed shot either. Keeping your two best defensive rebounders (KJ and DJ) off ball to attack the glass is important to close the possession too.

[mo7888]

Wait, I thought I wanted to trade Murray...

I'm like the high priest of the Church of Walker. I definitely don't want to trade him in a vacuum. But I think the most important thing about the Spurs' path toward building a contender is making a plan and executing it. They need blue-chippers, and if it costs Walker to get one, then it does. I'd rather it be Murray or even White since Derrick can't stay healthy. But if the team thinks White, Murray and Johnson are the keepers, for example, then I'd rather them make a move with Walker than just keep re-signing anyone decent and be a 10th seed for years while also having a full payroll.

Murray + Lonnie package deal? Lol... seriously though, it's obvious that they are going to have to trade someone at somepoint (though I don't think we have to do it now) to balance out the roster and because we just can pay everyone. Ideally, I would hope it would be White or Murray but I don't think anyone should be off limits.

[Chinook]

So it's bait?

To an extent. What you're saying is a bit different though. Like Parker on Barnes in the 2013 GS series -- that was bait. It made GS change their whole gameplan trying to attack an obvious mismatch. What the Spurs did in the Dallas game was just committing to doubling. They basically trusted Mills to take away the three and guide Doncic to a position where the help could rotate down. Dallas just had to adjust to it, whereas in the GS series it didn't matter if they adjusted or not, because the direct benefit of the assignments was that Green got Curry and Leonard got Thompson, and the Spurs were more than willing to take their chances with those match-ups. So GS could either take the easy match-up but get out of their offense or they could run their offense but have to deal with going against the teeth of the Spurs perimeter defense. It was lose-lose for them. In the Dallas game, they missed a few open shots down the stretch, so it looked like it took Dallas longer to counter than it really did.

Also, I think folks don't realize how good Brown's been this year. Tatum is probably their best player, but the gap between him and Brown is WAAAAAAAYYY smaller than that between Doncic and anyone else on that team.

[ECOV]

woooooooooooooooo go spurs go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chinook]

Murray + Lonnie package deal? Lol... seriously though, it's obvious that they are going to have to trade someone at somepoint (though I don't think we have to do it now) to balance out the roster and because we just can pay everyone. Ideally, I would hope it would be White or Murray but I don't think anyone should be off limits.

Basically, and how much PATFO believes in those guys matters. It doesn't matter that I think Walker is the closest thing to a blue-chipper on the team now and that Pop should be doing everything possible to develop Lonnie. If the Pop is never going to view Walker that way and force the offense to work in a way that maximizes Walker's (and everyone's honestly) talents, then trading him for someone who would get that regard is the right move. I didn't say this in the Collins thread, but that's my answer. The Spurs should make that trade only if Pop has a plan to make Collins a vocal point of the team and a net-positive player. I think there are ways he could do that, but I really don't know if it's even something he'd want to do.

[Seventyniner]

Kemba Walker lmao

Until tonight I somehow never made the connection that Kemba wears the same number that Antoine Walker did. Now I'm waiting for Kemba to say he only shoots so many threes cause there are no fours.

[Chinook]

To add to this - a defensive possession doesn't conclude on a missed shot either. Keeping your two best defensive rebounders (KJ and DJ) off ball to attack the glass is important to close the possession too.

Yes. I had forgotten to mention it. Lonnie is a good rebounder for his size too, but his box-outs are abysmal. If he can't rush up and high-point the ball, his man is very likely to get the board. Having his guy be the shooter dramatically reduces the chances of him giving up the offensive rebound.

[Chinook]

Not arguing any way but Keldons so called man on man moments have been cause he’s just got a massive torso. Which is no knock, I think the dude is a stud. It just helps his stance a lot. Thing is Hes a terrible team defender. Pretty sure he failed man, you, ball 101.

Johnson's a superior post-defender, and there'd be no way the Spurs could survive playing small even this well without him. I don't think he's a horrible man-defender or anything, but he's not the guy those early tweets tried to make him out to be. I said it then and got some for it. When the guy is Lebron or Zion, you obviously put Keldon on him. When the guy is a smaller wing, you obviously put Walker on him. When it's a tall but not bulky SF like Tatum or Ingram, it depends.

[John B]

Kemba Walker lmao

If that turned out to be a foul, we would be cussing DJ right now. Was that really the right play or just stay in front of the guy and not risk a foul. Spurs was up 2 pts and just needed a stop.
I mean the steal was great, but just saying.

[Chinook]

If that turned out to be a foul, we would be cussing DJ right now. Was that really the right play or just stay in front of the guy and not risk a foul. Spurs was up 2 pts and just needed a stop.
I mean the steal was great, but just saying.

Nah. The Spurs had one to give.

[John B]

Nah. The Spurs had one to give.

Then great gamble then with the steal.. Alright Murray

[jehawk81]

Kemba Walker lmao

Yup, I like how his night ended, especially after he was starting to get that "take over the game" smile in the 3rd

[ace3g]

[Dejounte]

Portland is for sure going to fall out of that picture. I'm surprised by the Suns after they started hot.

[Mr. Body]

Portland is for sure going to fall out of that picture. I'm surprised by the Suns after they started hot.

Not surprised. Chris Paul can't fix that trash roster. Booker isn't a winner and never will be.

[SPURSCHAMP]

Portland is for sure going to fall out of that picture. I'm surprised by the Suns after they started hot.

caught every Suns game so far, they were lights out from 3 to start but are now missing shots. Booker has been terrible and CP3 doesn't seem to fit the team, they're young and like to run. Also Monty has reduced Ayton to a OReb/putback center when he can be dominant offensively. Doesn't help that they look him off on every switch/mismatch in the post and just continue clanking 3's. Suns fans on reddit are going crazy about it.

[LCM]

Wins against Minnesota and Houston and they are the 4th seed. They have to learn to win the games they should win.

[Dex]

Portland is for sure going to fall out of that picture. I'm surprised by the Suns after they started hot.

Portland always seems to find a way to stay compe ive even with a wave of injuries.

I'm pretty much used to Collins and Nurkic being out at this point, but McCollum definitely hurts. Still, Lillard may be able to Dame Time his way into keeping them in the playoff picture.

It's seems like every year we want to write them off, yet they stay in the middle of the playoff pack.

[Dejounte]

Portland always seems to find a way to stay compe ive even with a wave of injuries.

I'm pretty much used to Collins and Nurkic being out at this point, but McCollum definitely hurts. Still, Lillard may be able to Dame Time his way into keeping them in the playoff picture.

It's seems like every year we want to write them off, yet they stay in the middle of the playoff pack.

"Middle of the playoff pack"? They usually barely make it in all the time.

[Dex]

"Middle of the playoff pack"? They usually barely make it in all the time.

2020 - 8th
2019 - 3rd
2018 - 3rd
2017 - 8th
2016 - 5th

I'd call that middle of the pack. Averages out to ~5th place finish over 5 years.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Spurs as always trying to get muh touches his touches to start the game

That's exactly what I was thinking. Other teams have noticed that both DJM and DDR really try to spoon feed LA at the beginning of the game, so they were defending the pass to LA which resulted in 3 1st quarter turnovers. Spurs better make an adjustment.

[rankingtear]

Basically, and how much PATFO believes in those guys matters. It doesn't matter that I think Walker is the closest thing to a blue-chipper on the team now and that Pop should be doing everything possible to develop Lonnie. If the Pop is never going to view Walker that way and force the offense to work in a way that maximizes Walker's (and everyone's honestly) talents, then trading him for someone who would get that regard is the right move. I didn't say this in the Collins thread, but that's my answer. The Spurs should make that trade only if Pop has a plan to make Collins a vocal point of the team and a net-positive player. I think there are ways he could do that, but I really don't know if it's even something he'd want to do.

I'm curious what player do you see Lonnie developing as?

Lonnie does not fall into any useful archetype. Advance stats point to Waiters / Wiggins / Brooks type players , the extinct black holes.

Playmaking too low for a primary or secondary creator.
Movement skills too low for a movement shooter.
Lack of defensive awareness takes him out of being a glue or 3 and D wing.
Rim finishing is too poor to be considered a slashing wing.

[Chinook]

I'm curious what player do you see Lonnie developing as?

Lonnie does not fall into any useful archetype. Advance stats point to Waiters / Wiggins / Brooks type players , the extinct black holes.

Playmaking too low for a primary or secondary creator.
Movement skills too low for a movement shooter.
Lack of defensive awareness takes him out of being a glue or 3 and D wing.
Rim finishing is too poor to be considered a slashing wing.

Walker is not a black hole. You have to use a lot of possessions and hold the ball during those possessions.

Walker has the highest PPT (points per touch) of anyone in the rotation, but only Vassell touches the ball less. He's pretty middle of the pack in terms of time of possession and dribbles per touch, behind all of the primary ball-handlers in that regard. Walker has been more of a finisher than black hole. Possessions don't "die" when he touches the ball. He shoots more than doing anything else, but a Walker shot is one of the best shots the team generates right now, and he hasn't been getting a ton of them.

I think he could develop into a good lead guard, though not necessarily a PG. He has the type of speed and athleticism that can bend a defense, but he doesn't seem to have the will. If he had Johnson's bull mentality, Lonnie would be the best offensive player on the team. He's going to have to learn to be a score-first guard who passes when he gets a defense to commit rather than a pass-first guard who only tries to score when he's open. Him ending so many of his touches is part of that, but he's still getting into the paint and looking to pass too much. And because Lonnie doesn't get consistent touches, he seems unsure of when to try to score and when to keep the offense moving. When he goes cold, it's almost always because he doesn't take shots, not because he's taking them and missing.

[rankingtear]

Walker is not a black hole. You have to use a lot of possessions and hold the ball during those possessions.

Walker has the highest PPT (points per touch) of anyone in the rotation, but only Vassell touches the ball less. He's pretty middle of the pack in terms of time of possession and dribbles per touch, behind all of the primary ball-handlers in that regard. Walker has been more of a finisher than black hole. Possessions don't "die" when he touches the ball. He shoots more than doing anything else, but a Walker shot is one of the best shots the team generates right now, and he hasn't been getting a ton of them.

I think he could develop into a good lead guard, though not necessarily a PG. He has the type of speed and athleticism that can bend a defense, but he doesn't seem to have the will. If he had Johnson's bull mentality, Lonnie would be the best offensive player on the team. He's going to have to learn to be a score-first guard who passes when he gets a defense to commit rather than a pass-first guard who only tries to score when he's open. Him ending so many of his touches is part of that, but he's still getting into the paint and looking to pass too much. And because Lonnie doesn't get consistent touches, he seems unsure of when to try to score and when to keep the offense moving. When he goes cold, it's almost always because he doesn't take shots, not because he's taking them and missing.

Spot ups statistically generates a high points per possesions than most playtypes, but is good spot up shooting without plus defense irreplaceable? I don't see a lead guard with at least baseline creation for others being viable anymore.

A lead guard who never got to 2 assist per game on any level , college , g league , summer league is a blackhole.






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[Chinook]

Spot ups statistically generates a high points per possesions than most playtypes, but is good spot up shooting without plus defense irreplaceable? I don't see a lead guard with at least baseline creation for others being viable anymore.

You're conflating different ideas. A spot-up shooter isn't a black hole. At worst, that player is a chucker. A black hole needs to dominate the ball, and a pure finisher who's behind most guards in touches is definitely not doing that. Walker is not a black hole, whether he assists or not. That's just not a term that applies to him. That doesn't mean that his current role and production isn't replaceable. I wouldn't be as open to Walker trades right now if I thought that. There are ways that trading him could make the team better. That still doesn't make him a black hole, though.

A lead guard who never got to 2 assist per game on any level , college , g league , summer league is a blackhole.

So this is where the conflation comes from. You're applying what Walker is currently, which is a spot-up shooter who doesn't perform well enough at that task to justify him being meh or worse in most other areas, and projecting that onto his development curve. When I say that Lonnie can become an elite guard, I don't mean that he can be a spot-up shooter who doesn't pass. He's already that. I mean he can become a guy who breaks down a defense and then makes a few good passes when him shooting isn't the best option. We're talking about a guy who scores like 25ppg but only tallies like three or four assists rather than a guy who averages seven or eight dimes while scoring in the teens. I think right now, he's not scoring aggressively enough to open the passing lanes to get more assists (and he obviously isn't getting the touches to do that right now regardless). But he has to score first. He's so far from being a black hole right now that he has to become one in order to move past it to be a well-rounded offensive player. He's on the wrong side of the mountain right now, and he might never cross the peak.