You are right you can't really predict when it bottoms out.
I think trying to call it at all is a fools errand.
Been watching a lot of financial press, and there are so many negative indicators that they are using the "D" word. All bets are off.
You are right you can't really predict when it bottoms out.
dow futures -900 and shut down
maybe its time to quarantine Trump
Is he going to give up all the Obama gains too?
People don’t realize that we narrowly escaped a depression in 2008 because of some risky decisions by the fed and others that worked out. There’s no guarantee we escape one again but I get the feeling if we get too close to that Trump will just throw in the towel and say we have to all get back to work.
...& he'll use the beaches in Florida & Central Park in NYC as cover.
Oh I totally called this... Trump getting ready to waive the white flag against the virus. Full on surrender.
Comports with the policy of undertesting. Mass death was always the subtext: citizens sacrificed for the good of the economy..
I hope.it turns out otherwise.
DMX7 it's scant cause for hope, but Mnuchin did say today that the lockdown could last another 12 weeks.
He and Trump are not always on the same page. If the stock market goes much lower Trump may not even hold out until the end of the totally arbitrary “15 DAY PERIOD”.
We need to test, test, test, test, and test again. The real mortality rate will be crucial in dictating what we do. If it's around .5 percent, as some theorized, that'll be great. There's been flu seasons that bad before. Then we need to see if the warm weather/less population theory holds. If it does, Texas and Florida and then California (we should warm up pretty good in a month) need to start resuming business as usual, gradually. Retired seniors should be issued a soft shelter in place order until Summer. Unfortunately, I don't think New York is on the same favorable trajectory as the other huge populated states, but if we can get TX, CA, Florida, and much of the country going, we can help NY in their long fight.
A .5% mortality rate isn't great, except compared to where we are now.
That's lethality 5x worse than the flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, in which ~ 100,000 people (each) died.
I think we can all agree that the situation isn't great. Unfortunately it's where we are at.
I’m note an economist by any means. Any ideas on how the massive debt that is about to be incurred will effect the US and world economies intermediate and longer term.
well just print more money. this crisis is exposing the scam that is the Fed/Stock Market/Economy
its like we have cheat codes to the game and can just type them in when a level gets too difficult
Capitalism scam is getting utterly exposed
Fed promised to basically buy all small businesses
Dow opens and starts dropping like a rock
anything the Fed does at this point will make it worse
futures went from -900 to +200, opens at -300.
You could get hyper inflation.
and the stocks plunge
despite Fed promising to pump unlimited money in economy
were done
That's what all the fiscal/monetary hawks said about stimulus and QE in 2009. They were wrong.
We've had eleven years of slow growth and low inflation ever since. We never dealt with the overhang of bad debt.
The problem is the coronvairus and until that's solved you can print all the money you want and it's not going to solve the economic issues.
these tweets are aging very well
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