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Good article.
Although, I'm going to wait until the post-season until I judge Nick and Finley.
http://www.nysun.com/article/28586?page_no=1
By JOHN HOLLINGER
March 6, 2006
Too often, we measure the strength of a team by how well it does when everything is going right. The Golden State Warriors, for instance, look at last year's run after the Baron Davis trade - when their whole team was healthy and clicking - and think that's "normal" for them.
In truth, pro basketball teams are nearly always in a state of disrepair. Either somebody is hurt, or an important player is in a slump, or there's a rough patch of schedule, or something else is going on that keeps a team from reaching its peak. Only the rare exceptions (such as this year's Pistons) keep clicking for 82 games.
The real measure of a team is not how it does when all the stars are aligned, but rather how well it fares when it hits a few bumps in the road. That's why one key question I look at, when assessing championship contenders, is "How many things would have to go wrong for this team to no longer have a shot at the le?" Even for some of the league's best teams - Detroit, for example, or Phoenix - this number is surprisingly small.
But for the San Antonio Spurs, the number is very large indeed. The Spurs have had all kinds of things go wrong for them this year, yet here they are at 46-12. They're tied for the best record in the Western Conference after Thursday's key win over Dallas, and sit only one game behind Detroit in the loss column for the best record in the league.
In fact, this could be the best season in San Antonio's illustrious history. At their current pace, the Spurs would win a franchise-record 65 games - and even that may underestimate things. The Spurs have been picking up the pace of late, winning 25 of their past 30 games, and there's reason to believe they could perform even better down the stretch.
To see why, let's look at all the things that haven't gone San Antonio's way this season. We'll start with their best player, Tim Duncan.
Battling a persistent case of plantar fasciitis, Duncan hasn't been his usual dominant self, especially on offense. In the Spurs' 27 games since the start of the new year, he's broken the 20-point barrier only four times. His season scoring average of 19.1 is the lowest mark of his pro career, as are his 48.1% shooting and 2.1 blocks.
The good news, such as it is, is that it appears the injury isn't getting any worse. While it's painful and limits Duncan at times, he can stay on the court and may be able to improve his output once he gets used to his new limitations. However, chances are he won't be back at full strength until he gets a month or two to rest over the summer.
Then there's Manu Ginobili. The sparkplug behind San Antonio's championship run a year ago, Ginobili has been in and out of the lineup all season with a variety of injuries. His daring playing style probably contributes to this problem, because he's constantly drawing contact and contorting his body at odd angles to finish his drives.
At 28, Ginobili is at an age where many players of this type begin breaking down. While his overall output hasn't declined much, his availability has: Manu has missed 13 games this season and played sparingly in several others. Even when he plays, he's averaging two minutes per game fewer than a year ago.
Beyond the two stars, the Spurs' free agents have been disappointments too. San Antonio was overjoyed in the offseason to bring in two veteran warhorses to solidify the bench: Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel. With that duo firing away, the Spurs figured, their second unit would have more firepower than the previous season's mildly disappointing group.
It hasn't worked out that way. At 34, Van Exel is having his third straight poor shooting year and isn't creating shots with nearly the frequency he once did; put simply, he seems to have very little left in the tank. Finley, 33, hasn't fared much better, shooting a career low 39.4% and, like Van Exel, creating dramatically fewer opportunities than in previous seasons.
If all that isn't bad enough, the Spurs have worsened things with a few self-inflicted wounds. Until late February, they started Rasho Nesterovic ahead of the more productive Nazr Mohammed. And they have kept Finley and Van Exel in the rotation ahead of two players, Brent Barry and Beno Udrih, who have been more productive in their limited minutes.
That's a lot of wrongs, yet the 46-12 record it adds up to is very, very right. How have the Spurs done it? With one glaring exception to the everything went-wrong premise: Tony Parker. The blindingly fast Frenchman has put his career into another gear, becoming the Spurs' leading scorer (19.3 ppg) ahead of both Ginobili and Duncan while shooting a sizzling 55.0% from the floor.
The key for Parker has been the complete abandonment of his jump shot. A year ago Parker, took two 3-pointers per game but made only 27.6%. He also attempted a great many mid-range jumpers when defenders went under the screen against the pick-and-roll, and his accuracy wasn't much better. As a result, Parker wasn't useful as more than a third option behind Duncan and Ginobili.
This year, however, he's had a realization. Parker is so fast that even if a defender goes under the screen and tries to meet him on the other side, he can still get to that spot faster nine times out of 10 and either draw a foul or earn a lay-up. Thanks to his amazing jets, the 6-foot-2-inch, 177-pound Parker is one of the league's leaders in points in the paint.
In the bigger picture, the Spurs' success isn't just about Parker - it's about a team that ac ulated so many assets that one or two of them were extremely likely to play at a high level. The decline of Duncan and the injuries to Ginobili would have been disastrous for teams lacking the secondary weapons to overcome such a huge loss. In San Antonio, however, Parker and others pick up the slack, and it ends up being a mere speed bump on the way to another successful season.
Thus, while Detroit's blistering start caught our attention and Dallas and Phoenix are writing amazing stories this season, San Antonio is quietly piling up wins despite injuries to its two best players. That, in a nuts , is the difference between the Spurs and the rest of the league. Every other team enters the season hoping that if everything goes right, they'll contend for a le. The Spurs enter the season knowing that even if lots of things go wrong, they'll still contend for a le. And that's why, come June, the smart money is on San Antonio.
Good article.
Although, I'm going to wait until the post-season until I judge Nick and Finley.
*Gasp*
Someone actually praised the Spurs?
Wow.
I don't think the writer is fair to Finley. While I agree Van Exel has been a bust for the most part, Finley is the Spurs' fourth leading scorer and has become exactly what the want - a decent defender and a spot-up shooter.
Also, the writer misses the point about Rasho, and why he started: he's the better defender. He has better hands. They don't need his offense. Mohammed earned the starting role not because they were particularly unhappy with Rasho, but because Mohammed had a couple great games - which has more to do with Mohammed auditioning for a big contract next year than anything to do with the Spurs.
But, I agree, Parker is the reason we're still in the top of the league, despite injuries to Duncan and Manu. Come playoff time, Duncan and Manu will find a way to turn it up, and the Spurs will win it all again. Van Exel will get benched come playoff time, I think, in favor of Barry and Beno. Horry and Finley and Mohammed will make a very effective 10-man rotation.
Finley has begun to step up in the last half-dozen games. I'm not sure he'll be able to continue to play at quite the same high level, but he seems to have mastered big pieces of the Spurs system and we're seeing that work start to pay off.
As for Van Exel, I tend to agree with the writer. I'm not sure there's much left there.
And Duncan. I haven't decided whether he's really in a steady decline, or if he's conserving himself for the post-season. I tend to think the latter is the case.
But, yeah, can you imagine if Tim's PF magically disappeared tomorrow and Manu got back into his groove?
The last time both Van Exel was in the playoffs was in 2003 against the Spurs and he had a decent series. I think he averaged 15 points a game or something. I think he can pull off a few big shots this year. Hopefully they'll be in teh second round against the Mavs.
Big Shot Rob didnt even get a mention...
heheheh
I like how people are overlooking Van Exel.
If that elbow aint hurtin, he will bag his threes in the postseason.
The guy is CLUTCH in the playoffs.
Brent Barry more productive than Finley this year?!?!?
What season has he watched?!!?
Good article. It is pretty amazing when you think about it that despite Duncan averaging something like 14 ppg in Feb and Manu missing so many games that the Spurs are still right there at the top. If the Mavs had to deal with an injured Dirk or the Pistons an injured Ben or Billups, they would still be considered contenders, but I don't think their record would stay atop as the Spurs has.
BTW, Finley has only been playing well recently, I didn't realize his shooting % was so low! He's had a lot of games where he's gotten the minutes, but ended up with 0 points. But, I'll wait till the postseason to judge
Give that man some SPAM.
forgot those games where Manu was hurt and he filled in, winning some of those games?Finley has only been playing well recently,
Games against Memphis, Minnesota, Sacramento, LA where he won the games himself?
allllrighty.
I have never liked NVE's game. Mebbe, by some magic, he'll become a different player in the playoff's...I ain't holding my breath. Yeah, he can slow and control the pace when things are getting outta hand, but, that's mostly cuz that's the only pace he has...slow and controlled. Still, it can help at times. Play Beno and Barry.
Finley has been a damn good pickup, imho.
What we are seeing from the Spurs, scoring and lineups that ain't so focused on Timmy and Manu...I believe we'll see more of in the playoffs as well. It's gonna be a different Spurs team than last year in the playoff's. We can win it all using it...or not.
Gonna be interesting.
i think Beno will be benched in favor of Van Exel
I'm sorry. I just don't trust NVE. He shown very little ability to consistenly hit shots - maybe because of the elbow, maybe because of diminished ability, or maybe of a bit of both.
This is a guy who was "on record" as saying he was ready to retire last March and virtually put himself on IR stating he didn't want to subject his body to more action because he felt the Blazers weren't commited to winning.
The article was correct. He's got very little left in his tank and he's overweight. Beno has played much better than he has in his spots. Time will tell if his ballhandling ability against pressure has improved.
I don't think it's reasonable to say that Beno is better than NVE. I think he'll shine in the playoffs. Dude is CLUTCH!
Nick was very tough with 3Gs vs Spurs in 03 WCFs, but that was 3 years ago.
I think Brent can and will help more than Nick in the playoffs.
Brent and Michael will be the backcourt rotation for the playoffs.
I still dont see the spurs winning anything without a 100% ready to go Tim Duncan
Yep, that's SPAM alright . . .The Spurs have been picking up the pace of late, winning 25 of their past 30 games, and there's reason to believe they could perform even better down the stretch.
Spurs should've dealt TP and started Beno. Then they'd be contenders.
Yeah, the rest of the team is crap and couldn't go anywhere with a 70% Duncan.
I don't want to judge NVE and Finley deal, since they are expected to perform in PO.
As NVE haven't showed anything yet, Finley showed some good games (and saved few). However, Finley's split stats show, that he performs against lotery teams and show almost nothing against contenders (with few exceptions). I hope this will change in PO.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/...3mNWFyesukvLYF
I'm damn happy with everybody except NVE. Even Marks has had his moments.
Whats wrong with wanting to win at the end of your career?
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