We aren’t really talking about the same thing. You’ll understand my point better if you get where I am coming from.
I don’t want the Spurs to be the ones stuck gambling and getting a potential that ends up being a zero, an unplayable, a real bust. It’s arguable Samanic is starting to fall into this category for example.
I know the chances are small the Spurs draft a star, and sometimes the guy that ends up being the star doesn’t look like that early. But he’ll at least contribute something right away like Kawhi, Paul George, etc. I mean sometimes the guy looks like he’ll be one from his first season, but not always. However, he will at least be a good player pretty early and give you flashes, that’s my more humble goal. I want a good player. Now turning that good player into the star that’s the tough tough goal.
So for me I define bust more narrowly, because there’s guys that are the unplayables, the true busts, and those are the ones I want to avoid.
It doesn’t matter for my point how widely you define bust, for me I want to avoid a bad player, one who will need a ton of Gleague before you can even see what it is that he can do at the NBA level because certain things you projected never turned out. I think for Samanic that was shooting. I believe he was expected to add that to his game and without it he was beat to the spot by others. He may not be unplayable (we should find out next season) but he’s been marginal. I believe he’ll get chances next season because the Spurs need to find what they have, I hope he’s ready.
But for my point, I draw some relief from the fact that the biggest swing and misses will probably happen somewhere between 1-10, leaving some better prospects for the next tier. Not necessarily stars (although possible, though they may not be recognizable as such), but some pretty good players will be there at 12, and I trust the Spurs to find them.
Another way of saying it:
So much attention is paid to drafting that one needle in the haystack, but how about not drafting all that hay that looks like a needle? Spurs aren’t immune to it, but if all that confusing needle-looking hay goes top 10, then yay!! That’s basically where I am coming from. The less chances one of those true busts “falls” to the Spurs the better, so let the huge gambles go high!
Bc then the Spurs have a better pool to find the potential needle, or at least some of the playable hay.