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Yes, and he didn’t really get going until the last 10m or so of game. The Memphis game will be the better test. I’m sure Duren will want to prove something too.he was being guarded by a 5'11" dude when he did most of that, I you not
Yes, and he didn’t really get going until the last 10m or so of game. The Memphis game will be the better test. I’m sure Duren will want to prove something too.
Yes, I can see the Spurs trading out of a top 4 pick, absolutely.
The reason why? The real reason why?
Money. Those picks earn so much money right off the bat, their contracts are really pretty high. Initially aren't terrible, but to keep that player, they really start getting up there. This is one thing that really starts choking perinnially terrible franchises -- they get stacked with top picks that kill their cap.
Also, the Spurs have hidden evaluation processes and interests. I can totally see them taking Smith or Holmgren. After that, who knows. I almost feel they're much more comfortable taking later picks, getting guys they can mold, and most importantly are not as expensive.
That's a good article, even with the kindergarten drawings. Stepien has some of the best draft analysis on the internet overall. That article boils down to one thing - there is a MUCH higher chance of drafting a star-level player in the Top 5. The chance of drafting one in the second 5 (6-10) is about one-third as high. People love to point out stars that have been drafted at 17, or in the second round like Jokic. But the chance of drafting a star below the Top 10 is very small, and only in the Top 5 is it pretty good. That's why if you tank, you freaking TANK. And if you're going to be bad, like the Spurs are this year? The smart play is to tank. It may not be as fun for the fans, but it's the better long term strategy. I've read countless people here who said things like, "8 isn't that much different from 5". That kind of thinking is the reason casinos continue to rake in billions of dollars, year after year. I think the Spurs draft position will get worse, but even if they remain in the 8 position, they have zero chance of getting the 5,6, or 7 draft slots. And they have almost an equal chance of landing at 9 vs 8.
What I don't understand is how many of you will sit here and say that players who rack up bigger numbers on lousy teams are "empty calories", but don't care that Chet Holmgren has feasted on mostly below-par college teams, but struggled in three games against St. Mary's and looked pretty soft against Texas and T Tech. I think he'll do well enough in the NCAA, but IF he doesn't, he could definitely fall to 2 or even 3. Both Smith and Banchero are 6'10 with 7'+ wingspans, and NBA-ready bodies. Not all the scouts are as in love with Holmgren as the talking heads - I just don't have any feel for how Houston or Orlando feel about him.
Keegan Murray doesn't have any more chances to excel or disappoint. Unless a couple of guys go nuts in the tourney, he won't fall below 6.
I don't think this is a right analysis, or at least there is a lot that you're missing with it. I don't have time to really get into it, but going into a hard tank is not what you want to do, and there are many reasons why. Oh, yes, there's the big 'wow' factor in drafting high, but getting there carries significant negative externalities. It's the reason why you continue to see non-winning franchises continue to circle around the bottom of the standings. Some of that has to do with poor leadership, to be sure, but mostly it has to do with other consequences that don't make the headlines. For every crap franchise like Washington, there's a Utah. The former has gone into full tank for years and still sucks, the latter never went into a full tank and recovered.
Obviously those are anecdotal, but there are severe costs in going into full tank mode. They include:
1. Setting-in of a losing mindset
2. Incurring of awful contracts
This is aside from erosion of fanbase, etc. The losing mindset is severe. Good players don't come out of the draft fully formed, especially nowadays. And it's a myth that good prospects will always become good players. On the contrary, potential kings get strangled in the crib all the time. With a losing culture, one where it's clear the franchise doesn't care about winning, you're souring the patch for every player you have.
Then you have the expense of high draft picks year after year. The Spurs haven't faced this conundrum at all, but those top picks really add up. At first they may not so, but they quickly get stupidly bad. When you have middling top picks, it's hard to tell when to cut loose and when you do, you're back to the start without anything to show. The big cap hits make it hard to sign good vets -- you know, the guys who can teach young players how to be professionals.
No, the hard tank is a really bad idea.
Mr. Body dropping some Truth!
The counter is that we have no pecking order, but I suppose that’s also because we only draft shooting guards.
Ivey killing it early on.
I didn't like Obi Toppin at all out of college because in addition to the eye test every scouting report on him talked about how he wouldn't be a good defender in the NBA, and he very rarely addressed that point. Almost every interview inevitably turned to dunking, which I found pretty annoying. So, in addition to being a poor defender, he also seemed/seems to have little interest in becoming a better defender either. Murray at least plays D and has defensive versatility. For me, that's a big difference.
No one, including the Spurs, is trading out of the top 4. The money doesn't matter. SA collectively paid Al Farouk Aminu and Chandler Hutchison $14.5M to just go away last summer. They're not going to balk at a top 4 salary if there's a chance to grab a star or a super star.
As I remember it, Toppin was one of the dreaded high ceiling, low floor guys. He was a phenomenal athlete, but lacked fundamentals. For a jumping jack, I'm remembering concerns about weak rebounding.
Spurs would absolutely trade down or out if their players aren't there. Absolutely.
What players aren't going to be there for them in the top 4? And didn't you just say a few posts ago that the reason would be money? Moving goalposts are moving...
Here was two mocks I found by googling ‘Obi Toppin Safe Pick’:
https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nba/...613erolxqvmrsd
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-draft-lotteryOne of the questions surrounding Toppin will be his ceiling. He’s already 22 years old and looks to have cultivated a lot of his skills and for that reason, there will be a question of if he has another level to get to. For organizations that love safe picks, Toppin will be their guy but if a team is looking to take a home run swing he may not offer enough charm.
Every squad drafting early could use the 22-year-old as someone who could contribute immediately, but the teams closer to competing might be the best options.
The Golden State Warriors (No. 2), Washington Wizards (No. 9) and Phoenix Suns (No. 10) could each compete for playoff spots if they are healthy next season, and adding a ready-made starter like Toppin could be huge.
Spot on. I’m in total agreement here.
The only reason I brought up the comparison is the position of play, the age - being relatively older for a sop re, and the giant leap in production from freshman to sop re seasons.
I agree on the probabilities/percentages of draft successes being presented here, which only makes what the Warriors have accomplished all the more impressive, building a dynasty with a #7 (Steph), a #11 (Klay), and a #35 (Draymond). Moses Moody was my pick for the Spurs in the last draft, so it'll be interesting to watch how his career unfolds vs Primo.
I don't see how anyone drafts Chet over Jabari, this kid can do it all and more than an entire year younger than him.
Earlier in the season I liked Holmgren over Jabari, but have come around to your position. I'd love to have Holmgren on the team, but I would definitely take Jabari over him and maybe pick up Kessler from Auburn as well. Especially if you think his 3 point shot would develop he would give you most of what Holmgren would plus has a body that would work in the post.
In '15, they beat zero elite teams thanks to unprecedented opponent injury luck (not their fault obviously, but still), then forfeited the opportunity to have a chance to become a dynasty by begging the second best player of this generation to join them and turn the league into men against boys to win '17 and '18.
They had a relatively short period where they played at a dynastic level, but despite the media propaganda, they're not the genuine article.
Yeah Smith is shooting 43% on 5.5 shot attempts a game not bad at all, and yeah I like Kessler as well he had 13-10 and 9 blocks today.
They would trade down if they didn't feel like they would get a player they wanted at that position. But I don't think they would shy away from drafting someone in the top 4 because of salary. They've paid players more for much less. They aren't hurting for money, especially Dell, Air bnb CEO? and that PE group investing in the Spurs ...
That's my boy I am all in on the Kessler Train so much that I don't mind trading Poodle because I think it does two things - Yeah will probably be worse in 2023 which is good cause Lort we need a top 4 pick and two I think he can and will be a good center for us in year two. So hopefully we get either a good PF or a good draft pick for Poodle and then we get hopefully a top 4 pick in next draft -Praying for Kessler will be there for us with our second pick
I agree Murray is way better defender then Obi will ever be but one thing he is a PF he is not a tweener like Eli meaning he can't guard Centers nor can he stay in front of SF but he is still a good player a High Floor kinda guy
I don't want you tank for a top pick next season but, if we do please trade DJ. No, I don't want to trade him (I want to put players along side him) but, we would lose him for nothing if we tanked again next year so trade him for value while it's high if we choose that route..
High floor guys are ready to play out of the box. He wasn’t in the rotation as a rookie, and I’m not sure 15 minutes qualifies this year. High ceiling? Sure, but the bottom could still drop out. His career is bordering on scrub territory.
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