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Nice work - thanks for laying this out.
To get the one seed, GS needs to lose 3 more game than the Spurs (4 more if they beat SA twice).
Right now the Spurs are 45-13 and GSW at 50-10 after last nights loss (in both sense of the word).
Assuming GS wins every remaining home game, I count 7 tough road games, factoring in playoff opponents or playing on consecutive nights:
- Thu Mar 2 - at Chicago
- Mon Mar 6 - at Atlanta (on a back-to-back)
- Sat Mar 11 - at Spurs (on a back-to-back)
- Mon Mar 20 - at OKC
- Tue Mar 21 - at Dallas ((on a back-to-back)
- Tue Mar 28 - at Houston
- Wed Mar 29 - at Spurs (on a back-to-back)
Notice the Spurs get them on a back-to-back both times, with the added bonus of GS facing a tough opponent the night before.
We should expect the Spurs to win both of those games, factoring in injury, fatigue, and motivation.
Say the Spurs finish with only 3 losses (as recently as 2012 they had a similar run to end the season).
We simply need GS to drop 4 out the 5 non-Spurs road games listed above.
That could be a stretch, but there's added hope in the Warriors dropping one of their 6 tough home games (Boston, Memphis, Houston, Wizards, Pels and Jazz).
As for the Spurs, again we're going to assume they take care of business again lesser compe ion (lousy teams, and home games vs decent PO clubs).
Outside of the 2 GS games, I count 8 more where they may slip up:
- Thu Mar 9 - at OKC (on a back-to-back)
- Sat Mar 18 - at Memphis
- Mon Mar 27 - Cavs
- Fri Mar 31 - at OKC
- Fri Apr 7 - at Dallas
- Sat Apr 8 - Clips (on a back-to-back)
- Mon Apr 10 - at Portland
- Wed Apr 12 - at Utah
The Spurs need to win 5 out of these 8 games.
And keep in mind room for error will occur for every GS home loss.
To recap there's a road map to the one seed, and after last night it is entirely more possible than before.
The key number is 3.
Spurs finish 21-3, Warriors finish 16-6, and the road to facing the King goes through San Antonio.
***But as Spurs fans we know the team (IE Pop) has to be motivated to get that seed - nullifying rest, playing extra minutes for stars, etc.
Letting Houston and GS battle it out in the 2nd round I think is worthy enough to shoot for.
Nice work - thanks for laying this out.
There's no chance of Spurs getting the 1st seed, tbh.
Nope
Thanks for taking the trouble to spell that out.
I suspect they will try, but not at the expense of business as usual:
Tinkering with lineups bc this is a new team with chemistry that is still developing this late in the season and Pop is still discovering his best lineups, etc.
Getting experience for rookies that while you don't expect will make a dent in the playoffs bc they are not in the regular rotation, at the same time you never know when someone can pick up fouls, have to exit a game for whatever reason, etc. We can't assume Pop's youngsters will be a non factor in the postseason and they need some playing time still.
Getting rest for the older dudes here or there if they need it (like Tony with this latest knee contusion).
The championship isn't won in the RS, getting to the playoffs in their best possible shape is their best chance.
They got 73 wins without KD, they'll be fine.
I'm hoping for a finish like that independent of what GS does. The Spurs have a long streak going of seasons with a least one double-digit winning streak. They are at risk of losing that this year. Them reeling off a 12-gamer right now would probably put them near the top seed while at least securing the two seed.
Why? "No chance" is pretty bold, so I'm just curious how you came to that in light of the recent injury news.
They also gutted their depth to get KD. This Warriors team without KD is far inferior to the one that won 73.
I like all these fans who have like two-year memories. The Spurs have very often closed seasons on strong notes. 21-3 isn't particularly hard to think about seeing as the average March during the Kawhi era is 12.6-2.6 and the average for the last three Marches is 13.7-2. That's the kind of record that could put the Spurs in the one seed going into the final two weeks. I don't think Pop would give up HCA just to be cute.
Not to mention that teams have largely learned to play Curry-led GS much better after the first 17 or so months of their reign.
There's a chance to catch up, but I wouldn't tire out our grey beards in the process.
Pau has gotten his rest, but Manu and Tony need theirs.
Curry, Draymond, Thompson and the rest of the guys that have been winning games at an 85% rate on the last three seasons aren't going 16 and 6 in their last 22 games.
Problem isn't the Spurs winning, it's the Warriors losing.
Eh the Spurs will find a way to lose to a team they shouldn't. Like Utah or Sac.
The non-KD lineups I just saw featuring Curry/Dray/Klay (meaning not playing those 3 with KD) are still +13 per 100 possessions (per Lowe).
They did lose "Some" depth but when you really look at it even sans KD?
Used to have: Harrison Barnes/Bogut/Festus/Speights/Barbosa
Now has: Zaza/West/McGee/McCaw/Matt Barnes
I mean, it's definitely less, but not horrific. Festus did great for them, but McGee has filled in well too. Bogut was easily their biggest loss now without KD, but Zaza/West are ok replacements.
Harrison Barnes never did amazing with them and Matt Barnes should fill that roll ok.
McCaw is already a better player than Barbosa.
With 2/3 of the current gap being mutual games, that's not really a huge problem
Proving we win both of them (very far from a given, tbh), there's still 1 game of difference that will prove to be too high to climb. Dude, this ain't happening, accept this fact and it will hurt less. I do hope, like you, that we end on the highest of notes possible. That's what I care more about getting into the playoffs.
Yeah, you think that team would have gotten 73 wins without KD if they didn't have Barbosa/Barnes/Bogut/Speights/Ezeli? Give me a break.
Warriors with Dominos= Historically great team, most talent in league history
Warriors without Dominos, Bogut, Barnes= Still a top 2 team in the West
But they don't need to win at a 90% rate to secure the 1st seed, 70% would do.
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