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I didn't really pay attention to the salary cap usage during our glory years.... are the Spurs an organization who are willing to pay luxury tax if they have a winning team?
We also might have the quickest turnaround without tanking in NBA history, and that's with getting ed on the organizational plan with building around neph. So once again, our turtle approach beats the hares (76ers, Minnesota, etc)
I didn't really pay attention to the salary cap usage during our glory years.... are the Spurs an organization who are willing to pay luxury tax if they have a winning team?
Well, if both Collins and Keldon turn out to be legit max players then you have to choose 2 of White, DJ, and Lonnie to go forward with, and the other can be flipped for draft assets. They’d have to decide the same 2 of 3 math the next year with the 2 survivors and Devin. Sammich should be flipped this off season, as he’d be a sure casualty.
Let’s see if they can even sign Collins, and if Keldon explodes into max talent first, though.
Yeah, they paid luxury tax some years. As high as ~$9 million, IIRC. They were a lux tax paying team as recently as 2015-16.
FYI, luxury tax threshold is projected to be $140 million in 2023 and $145 million in 2024. Then after that, a new TV deal kicks in, which historically means a big jump. So, yeah, some other tidbits to add to the projections.
What if the best free agent next year is...DeMar DeRozan?
We know some are already off the market and Collins looks likely to seek max dollars and ultimately resign with ATL. Not sure we have another best option.
Given how much Pop seems to love him, I could see Pop trying to re-sign him. Not sure they'd want to max him out but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
EDIT: SEE POST #39What if the best free agent next year is...DeMar DeRozan?
We know some are already off the market and Collins looks likely to seek max dollars and ultimately resign with ATL. Not sure we have another best option.
Given how much Pop seems to love him, I could see Pop trying to re-sign him. Not sure they'd want to max him out but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
If DeRozan must be kept, in order for him to have good value for us, it must be around the $20,000,000 range. His value is depreciating, so it's best if it was just slightly lower than that.
Last edited by Dejounte; 12-24-2020 at 11:52 PM.
We aren't getting John Collins anyway. He's a Restricted Free Agent you think Alt isn't going to match any offer he gets and let him walk for nothing?
Your first post since signing up in 2018. Welcome to the board.
If Atlanta really wanted to keep him, they would have made a deal this past off-season. Instead, they didn't. That's because they do not want to go a certain number for John since they do not value him that much.
Yeah I made this account back in 2018 because the forums required you needed to have an account in order to view the forum posts but I mostly just lurked.
From Atlanta's point of view if they aren't planning on keeping him then I don't understand why they wouldn't just trade him this season for a 1st round pick that way they don't have to pay him and the team he gets traded to can have his RFA rights. I'm sure they could give at least a late first round pick for him this season since his salary is very easy to match right now (he's only making 4 million), Trade Collins to anyone for a 4 million dollar scrub of the bench + 1 FRP would be an easy trade if they have no desire in keeping him long term.
My guess as to why he didn't sign an extension is maybe the Haws tried to low-ball him and he declined and they couldn't come to an agreement before the deadline. Also let's say he asked for the max extension, well the Hawks don't have to agree to that even if they are willing to do it, because they can let him test the open market and see if a team is willing to pay him the max. If a team is then they can just match but if no teams are willing to give him the max then Alt saves money. Also if he gets injured this season then Alt saves money by not giving him the max extension.
What the Hawks are doing is really smart, if they gave him the max extension this year they'd have to hope he doesn't regress otherwise it becomes a bad contract, by waiting they can also see if he continues to improve and if he regresses then other teams are less likely to give him a max which saves the Hawks money by not doing it this year. There's really no advantage to giving him the max early imo and that's probably what he was asking for.
I think the Hawks are trying to win now and losing Collins for nothing is going to make them look bad when it's time for Trae Young to decide to commit to them long term. Even if they don't want Collins on the team anymore because they don't think he's worth it, the Hawks would probably try to work out a sign in trade next offseason since he is one of the biggest free agents a lot of teams will be interested.
I guess I just can't see the Hawks letting Collins go and if they do I can't see them not trying to get some sort of compensation for him. I'd be great if he ended up with the Spurs since I think he would fit well with us.
why waste a max slot on a centre in a perimeter orientated league.... could just sign some cheap big
Outside of 3-4 players in the league, signing a max player is generally a mistake.
Blessing in disguise.
(And, anyway, what max player would anyone want next year?)
DING DING DING! BINGO!
I did more work and it confirms what you just said there.
*Obviously I didn't list all the players in the NBA, but everything from the 6th man column to the right most column covers ALL players paid in that range.
I wrote next to each name if they seem likely to underperform/overperform or just do OK value-wise to their contract.
A lot of players are signed to contracts that basically HANDICAPS the out of their teams.
And people on the Spurs for roster mismanagement...
Does John Collins really belong on the right side of this table? Will his upside get him there? I'm starting to be against it...
timvp
P.S. a lot of these players I don't know their current level of play so I just put "N/A".
Last edited by Dejounte; 12-24-2020 at 11:58 PM.
I wanted to see how ed the Rockets' future is at this moment...
We'll see who they trade Harden for, but it's not looking good...
John Wall is way off from being a superstar, especially since he's taking 44% of the team's cap and I don't even think he can become an All-star again ever in his career. That is an AWFUL contract.
And they have no draft picks next year, right?
Wanted to make adjustments to the previous table. I think this is more accurate.
Not sure why people on the Poetl contract. He takes up 8% of the team cap and players who take up that much are usually only regular bench players anyway. So if your expectations were low for Poetl, don't worry he's not being overpaid.
White and Murray are being paid with Key Starter money. They're actually on the lower end of it (right at 13%) and given that they both have upside to them, they are on good deals.
As mentioned earlier, if the Spurs view Collins as a sure fire star, then by all means go for it... I'm just concerned he actually wouldn't be the right gamble. 27%+ of the team cap is a lot, and very few players actually deserve it. Can Collins get on Towns' level? I doubt it.
So he is more being paid as a 6th man then a regular bench player. I can understand where you got your numbers from but it does not fit into a neat chart like that. If you have somone being paid as a Superstar then either your starters or bench will take less. I would say on a typical team you may have one or two on the bench making MLE money. When Manu was here he made a little more but the starter at 2 usually made less. We also had a lot of min players. I believe speedy was a min contract player. I am interested to see how his contract ages. I dont think it is a big overpay but I do believe it is an overpay. I would have rather lost him and gone after Giles. Especially with Ewbanks coming back I think we could have taken that chance.
Wanted to make adjustments to the previous table. I think this is more accurate.
Not sure why people on the Poetl contract. He takes up 8% of the team cap and players who take up that much are usually only regular bench players anyway. So if your expectations were low for Poetl, don't worry he's not being overpaid.
White and Murray are being paid with Key Starter money. They're actually on the lower end of it (right at 13%) and given that they both have upside to them, they are on good deals.
As mentioned earlier, if the Spurs view Collins as a sure fire star, then by all means go for it... I'm just concerned he actually wouldn't be the right gamble. 27%+ of the team cap is a lot, and very few players actually deserve it. Can Collins get on Towns' level? I doubt it.
Yes, if you have superstars being paid superstar money, you have no choice but to find veteran players who can outperform their contract. These players are those usually ring chasing and the ones who will take less than what they could get.
The Spurs had a lot of minimum salary players because the Spurs were great at squeezing what's left out of washed up veterans. They made them key role players when no one would find use for them.
Poetl is not an overpay if you think what he's being paid is starter level money. That's all my point is.
The key is also not paying non-superstars superstar money... ahem Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker, Bradley Beal, etc.
Last edited by Dejounte; 12-25-2020 at 12:04 AM.
Remember this is all fueled by the Spurs winning one game. They’ll lose plenty and most of the guys that are being extolled today will be ridiculed and demanded that they be benched or traded.
Sure, and that's a thread for another day, with even more variety of different outcomes.
Either way, I think if we focus in on free agency next year-- there are no players available worth going after. If we bet all our chips on John Collins and surround him with mediocre players who didn't do anything this season, we're not going to be better than where we are now.
The thread also provides insight on who is overpaid, underpaid, and paid just about what they're worth.
I know I might get hate for this but signing dd to a two year extension might not be a bad idea
$20,000,000 (Key Starter money) is good value for DeMar. Re-sign Gay for $8,000,000 (2nd Unit Money). Sign PJ Tucker or LaMarcus Aldridge with the rest (6th Man Money).
People might hate it, but we could very well end up with:
It would be the most "Spurs" thing to do. No major commitments. The contracts to DeMar, Rudy, and PJ could be made two year deals. We keep our flexibility for a real star to pay for the following year.
Not exactly the path I support, but I could totally see this happening.
People looking forward to a complete overhaul are in for a rude awakening... lol
Last edited by Dejounte; 12-25-2020 at 12:49 AM.
Ya I think spurs can do damage this year once white comes back if dj and Lonnie are consistent
It's better winning with the guys you drafted anyway.
Of course, if we drafted too well with White, Keldon, Vassell, and DJ and/or Lonnie eventually, paying them all/having them all feel fulfilled will be the other problem. Heck, even Tall Luka might still become a player. We won't be able to keep everyone.
Since the latter is only 80 miles away, doesn't that help the matter?
If DMDR is willing to follow the role of a facilitator and allow the shots to be spread around, I'm all for bringing him back. The dream is being able to go 10 deep with solid role players coming off the bench, all the while keeping the tenacity up for the entire game. Can it happen? Is it even possible? That's a long shot of shots, but would be a fun to watch even if the fix was in against them.
Atlanta’s cap situation is complicated going forward as well, especially with Young’s extension coming up. They’d have a hard time matching a max offer for Collins and staying under the tax for the next few years. They’ll have to make trades as they won’t be able to keep all of their draftees. I expect them to try exploring sign and trade scenarios for Collins next summer, unless he makes a big step up and proves being a max player.
As already mentioned paying max money for non max players is the quickest way to get in trouble. I don’t see Collins as one. If there’s even a slight chance that the OP scenario of Keldon and Lonnie growing to be really good comes true I’d rather the Spurs keep their options open instead of tying up all of their cap space for players who aren’t worth it and losing their own. Even if it means paying DDR(yeah I know) for a couple more years.
In any case it’d be a great job if Lonnie, Keldon, Vassell and maybe even Luka develop enough to get White-like extensions considering where they were drafted. Teams need a true superstar to be contenders but for a small market team having a bunch of really good players to build around is a nice position to be in.
Last edited by BG_Spurs_Fan; 12-25-2020 at 04:31 AM.
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