Back in the 2016 offseason, I was screaming for the Spurs to do a 1-year tank and rebuild. The team was too weak at the 1 and the 5 to win a championship that season. But much worse, they were right on the cusp of being in the kind of salary cap you see today, with no chance of winning a championship and no tradeable pieces. It should have been obvious to anyone. But PATFO obviously didn't see it. And the "experts" here scoffed and said, "You can't waste a year of Kawhi's and LMA's career." Well how did that theory work out? Instead, the Spurs have wasted the rest of both of their careers.
At that time, the Spurs could have gotten some value out of Tony Parker. But no... "Tony will retire a Spur. We need to keep him no matter what it costs." Mills wasn't a PG, was never a PG, and was never going to be a PG. I was screaming for the Spurs to sign an undrafted free agent named Fred Van Vleet. He was smart, tough, and a legit PG - just a late bloomer at Wichita. But no... "He's a scrub that can't play in the NBA." And even though Murray has been pretty good for a late first round pick, I was screaming for the Spurs to take Malcolm Brogdon. But no... "Brogdon isn't a first round talent."
Manu was still salty, that season and the next, but he clearly wasn't the future. They paid him $14M that season, and I know that everyone said that it didn't have any effect on their salary cap. But what signing him did do was allow PATFO to ignore the fact that they had a serious talent deficit coming in that position as well. It kept them from developing a young prospect during the tank/rebuild year. Not to say that they would have replaced him with someone as good as he was, but that they would have had a future. Which is why the year before I wanted the Spurs to draft Josh Richardson. But no... "He's not a first round talent." The Spurs should have let Philly sign Manu for $16M, or whatever the the alleged offer was. Not because Manu wasn't worth having on the roster, but because what the Spurs needed to be building the future.
The Spurs paid Tony, Manu, and Pau a total of $44M that season, trying to win a championship that they had zero chance of winning. But much worse, by not committing then to a rebuild and bringing in young prospects, they put themselves in the position of doubling down on Pau and Patty later, because new players wouldn't "know the system". The time to teach new players the system should have been during the tank/rebuild year.
If the Spurs had embraced the rebuild, they could have picked up a legitimate young player in the 2017 draft, and cleared cap space to sign a legit free agent or two. I don't know that they could have kept Kawhi if they had taken serious steps to surround him with better players, but I am personally convinced that the stupid roster/cap moves were a factor in him leaving. You can blame it on his uncle, but the truth is his uncle may have seen the handwriting on the wall.
When Kawhi demanded the trade, the Spurs STILL didn't commit to a rebuild. When you're rebuilding, the one thing you can't have is upside-down contracts - players who you couldn't get rid of without throwing in another player or a pick as a kicker. When the Spurs traded him, they took back DDR, whose contract was very up side-down. So what should they have done... take players of lesser talent on better contracts? The answer is yes, especially if you get them from a team with a better pick than the Raptors could give. Because the good contracts at least give you trade pieces to rebuild with. But the Spurs didn't do that, because they still hadn't accepted the fact that they could no longer rebuild-in-place.
Year after year since Duncan retired, the Spurs have been doubling down on stupid. Next year they are locked into three grotesquely upside down contracts in Gasol, Mills, and DeRozan, and one now-slightly upside down in Aldridge. They don't have a single PG on the roster. Next season is the last on Poeltl's contract, and he's the closest thing the Spurs have to a center. So they will very likely feel like their hands are tied and overpay to keep him after next season. (Sadly, they will probably do the same thing with Forbes after next season.)
The Spurs are in total cap , and there is no end in sight. The only tool in their box for next season is the MLE, unless they decide to part with one of their cheap young players and a pick to get out from under a bad contract - and that means selling the future to get out of past mistakes. And all of this, all of it, could have been prevented by committing to a rebuild in the 2016 offseason. But PATFO was too arrogant to see the truth of where they really were, due to 20 years of talent drain from picking at the bottom of the draft every year.
At the beginning of this season, I PM'd a couple of people here on ST and told them EXACTLY how this season was going to go. And it has gone exactly like I said it would. I said the best the Spurs could hope for would be to squeak into one of the last two playoff spots, and that would absolutely be the worst thing that they could do. Sure enough, rather than embracing a rebuild even at this late date, they have pushed for a first round exit and middle round draft pick. The worst possible thing. The problem is, in 2016 the Spurs could have prepared for the future by sacrificing a single season, and by cutting ties with the past. Now? The Spurs really need a super-tank and a top-3 pick to recharge the talent pool. The worst part is, PATFO arrogance (especially POP) will probably still keep them from biting the bullet next year. This rebuild is going to be painful and slow.
And there are a few of you still here who know I told you so. And why. And exactly how this had to play out.