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Cope.
When DeMar DeRozan’s name first emerged in the rumor mill as a player the San Antonio Spurs were targeting in Kawhi Leonard trade discussions, I was underwhelmed. More precisely, I was whelmed with a feeling of meh. A package headlining DeRozan wasn’t very appetizing when shipping away a player in Leonard who, when healthy, could rightfully be viewed as a top-three player in the NBA.
Admittedly, my knowledge of DeRozan’s game was relatively mediocre. Over the last few years, Eastern Conference regular season basketball hasn’t exactly been must-see TV for a fan of a team entrenched in the dogfight found in the West. Even a Toronto Raptors team that averaged more than 55 wins per season over the last three years wasn’t of much draw.
While I watched only a handful of Raptors games each regular season, I did tune in to watch LeBron James and his annual switch-flipping in the postseason. Along his way to the Finals the last three playoff runs, James has dismantled the Raptors to the tune of 12 wins in 14 outings – including the last ten games in a row.
To put it bluntly, against the Cleveland Cavaliers over the course of those 14 games, DeRozan has looked overrated. His resume says he’s a four-time All-Star and a two-time All-NBA performer; DeRozan’s performances against the Cavs in the playoffs were that of an overmatched, overpaid pseudo star who struggled to get anything going offensively. To make matters worse, his defense oscillated between unmemorable and egregiously poor.
So why did the Spurs, according to multiple insiders I’ve corresponded with since the trade, covet DeRozan since days after the Leonard saga had turned into a full-blown catastrophe?
Reflection
Based on every verifiable report, the Spurs were only interested in win-now pieces in return for Leonard. Through that lens, what San Antonio needed to get back was clear.
Yes, Leonard is a historically great defensive player. In fact, he may go down as the best perimeter defender in NBA history when it’s all said and done. But a cursory glance at why the Spurs won only 47 games last season makes it obvious that the team missed Leonard much more on the offensive end of the floor.
In the 2016-17 campaign, the Spurs finished as the third best team in the NBA in defensive rating. Last year, despite Leonard only playing in nine contests, San Antonio was once again third defensively. Conversely, on offense the Spurs fell from ninth in 2016-17 to 17th last year. Offense, or the lack thereof, was undoubtedly the reason why the Spurs went from a 61-win team to an outfit that had to scratch and claw just to qualify for the postseason.
Fit
In search of an offensive boost, the Spurs had a few unique conditions to consider before targeting specific players who could help on that end of the court.
In LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs have one of the few remaining legitimate post-up threats in the league. Last year, Aldridge led the NBA in total post-ups and post-up frequency. Considering that he was in the 80th percentile in terms of turning those post-up opportunities into points, there’s no reason for the Spurs to go away from that in the coming seasons. In fact, Aldridge scoring on the low-block was probably the one strength most responsible for keeping San Antonio from being completely inept on offense in 2017-18.
With Aldridge established down low, it didn’t make sense for the Spurs to go after a bigman. And that’s without factoring in Pau Gasol and the $23.5 million he’s due over the next two season.
The other condition the Spurs had to account for was the unique skill set of the other piece on the roster that may develop into a foundational building block: Dejounte Murray. Although it’s easy to project him to be an elite defensive point guard over the next decade, his long-term fit offensively is murky. What’s clear is that Murray is unlikely to develop into even an average playmaker, especially in the next few seasons.
With those two conditions set, what the Spurs needed in return for Leonard could be distilled into a basic idea: a shooting guard or small forward who can provide scoring punch while also being capable of providing playmaking skills typically found in a point guard.
Taking an elementary look at the landscape, there were only four targets who fit the positional requisite (swingman), the scoring requisite (at least 20 points per game) and the playmaking requisite (5 assists per game): LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden and DeMar DeRozan.
Impact
Yes, DeRozan was named to the All-NBA Second Team. Yes, he’s been named an All-Star four out of the last five seasons. But, really, is DeRozan legitimately a star player or is he high usage chucker who puts up empty stats on a forgotten team in a weak conference? That’s the question I wanted answer to as I dug into the numbers.
Many would be surprised to learn that the Raptors finished with the second best offensive rating last season, behind the Mike D’Antoni Houston Rockets and just ahead of the Golden State Warriors. Toronto’s standing near the top of the league in that category wasn’t a fluke as it was the fourth straight season being in the top six in the NBA in offensive rating.
A popular narrative for the Raptors success on offense last season was that their superior depth, particularly when compared to other teams in the East, overwhelmed opponents. While their depth undoubtedly played a role in their offensive mastery, the numbers also point to DeRozan having a lot to do with it.
Of the Raptors that averaged more than 15 minutes per game, DeRozan was second on the team in offensive rating.
Anunoby 112.4
DeRozan 112.2
VanVleet 112.0
Ibaka 111.8
Valanciunas 111.7
Lowry 111.6
Siakam 111.1
Poeltl 111.0
Wright 109.8
Miles 109.4
Powell 105.5
Take it a step further and the numbers really do paint DeRozan as the main player who made the Raptors offense go. As you can see, outside of Lowry, DeRozan’s presence on the court helped every player on the Raptors offensively.
Eye
Numbers never tell the whole story so I went back and watched just about every minute DeRozan played last season. I also watched Raptors games from previous seasons.
I was impressed. DeRozan is a better player than I thought he was prior to diving into the tapes. While he’s not as athletic as I thought (DeRozan had all of 28 dunks last season – or, to put it in perspective, four less dunks than Rudy Gay in more than double as many minutes), the man is a technician on the offensive end.
DeRozan has great footwork; he has a Euro step that will remind Spurs fans of Manu Ginobili and up-and-under moves in the paint reminiscent of Tony Parker. He’s a patient finisher who uses angles and knows how to draw contact. Everyone has seen his silky smooth fadeaway jumpers and slick handles but a lot of what makes DeRozan so effective as a scorer are subtle hesitation moves and an expertise at keeping his defender off-balance.
Usually swingmen DeRozan’s age (he just 29) are in danger of falling off a cliff due to a decline in athleticism (see Richard Jefferson as a recent Spurs example). However, after scouting his game, I’m not worried about DeRozan suffering the same fate. He’s a professional scorer who relies more on timing, touch and basketball IQ than any physical advantages. For those reasons, I think it’s possible for him to extend his prime for another three or four seasons.
Future
A lot of focus since the DeRozan trade has been on his three-point shooting, or lack thereof. However, while three-point marksmanship is always preferable in today’s NBA, I believe that focus is blind to a much more important reality: DeRozan is a great fit for what the Spurs needed most.
If the Spurs are going to succeed with Murray at point guard, they needed a swingman playmaker. DeRozan is exactly that. In fact, while he technically split his time at shooting guard and small forward for the Raptors, he was essentially the team’s point guard – even moreso than Kyle Lowry.
Lowry and Derozan both controlled the ball for approximately five minutes per game for the Raptors (Lowry was at 5.1 minutes, while DeRozan was at 4.9 minutes). However, DeRozan ran more than double the number of pick-and-rolls per game: 9.3 for DeRozan to 4.2 for Lowry.
It’s fair to say Toronto became the second best offensive team in the league by taking Lowry off the ball more than they ever had before while giving DeRozan a larger share of the playmaking duties. The numbers point to a gradual yet unmistakable shift over the last three seasons.
By the time the Spurs were looking to consummate a Leonard trade, their need for a pick-and-roll maestro was a red alert issue. Leonard himself had evolved into a very good player in that capacity, but also the losses of Tony Parker and Kyle Anderson in free agency shouldn’t be overlooked.
Parker, one of the best pick-and-roll operators in NBA history, led the Spurs in pick-and-rolls last season and could still convert at an above average level. Anderson didn’t run many pick-and-rolls but he was effective when he did so. (Plus, you have to believe the Spurs knew Manu Ginobili was leaning towards retirement, which would obviously be another blow in the pick-and-roll department.)
At that point, the Spurs had two pick-and-roll options: Patty Mills and Murray. Mills has gotten better as a pick-and-roll point guard but he was still below average last season; the Spurs scored 0.79 points per possession in Mills-led pick-and-rolls, which placed him in the 45th percentile on the NBA. Murray was a disaster in pick-and-rolls, finishing in the 27th percentile (the only points guards who graded out lower were rookies Lonzo Ball and Frank Ntilikina, along with journeyman Shelvin Mack).
Enter DeMar DeRozan, pick-and-roll playmaker extraordinaire. He’s run an average of more than nine pick-and-rolls per game over the last three seasons (to compare, that’s about the number of pick-and-rolls Parker ran back in 2014). Last season, DeRozan’s pick-and-rolls yielded 0.99 points per possession, which was good enough to land him in the 78th percentile. Historically, he’s been even better: 84th percentile in 2017 and 92nd percentile in 2016.
Outside of James Harden and LeBron James, you just aren’t going to find a swingman who can run an offense as well as DeRozan has over the last handful of seasons.
Objections
In watching all that video, I can confirm that DeRozan is indeed a bad defender. As I stated earlier, he’s not an elite athlete, which hurts him more on D than it does on the other end. He has trouble keeping guards in front of him. When he defends a player of size, he’s easily out-muscled in the paint. San Antonio’s coaching staff has their hands full, to put it kindly.
However, there are two things that give me hope for DeRozan on D: First, he went into last season saying defense was his focus and he was actually doing well in the first 20 games or so. The effort was commendable and the results were satisfactory. That effort and focus fell off as the season progressed, though, and was missing in action in the postseason.
The other thing I’d point to is a large human being named Jonas Valanciunas. DeRozan played a lot of minutes with Valanciunas and the Lithuanian center is a damn bad defender. He’s just putrid in a lot of situations. His one-on-one defense in the post is decent but he’s terrible defending pick-and-rolls and his help D is almost always late. Spurs coaches would never allow a bigman to play defense at that low of a level. DeRozan can’t blame all his defensive struggles on Valanciunas but he can count on better help from San Antonio’s bigs.
That brings me to what everyone talks about regarding DeRozan: his disappointing play in the postseason. It’s true; there’s not much I can say to sugarcoat the reality that DeRozan hasn’t played well in the playoffs. He has run head first into the LeBron wall for three straight seasons and hasn’t put up much of a fight. In fact, many times the Raptors could only give the Cavs trouble when DeRozan was on the bench.
Cleveland’s gameplan against him has mostly involved traps and hard blitzes, tactics that have left DeRozan flummoxed. Maybe playing for a Hall of Fame coach or playing with an All-Star bigman could change his postseason dynamics. Hopefully we’ll see next May.
While DeRozan’s playoff struggles are irrefutable, don’t confuse him for a shrinking violet. The Raptors have won 166 games the last three seasons in large part because DeRozan is such a killer in close games. He stepped up and delivered countless times for Toronto to close out contests. He’s unafraid to take and make big shots in the guts of the game.
The numbers show just how clutch DeRozan been over the years. Last year, he averaged 53.3 points per 48 minutes of clutch time (defined as the final five minutes with neither team up by more than five points). Only LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Chris Paul averaged more. The previous season, DeRozan was also fifth in this clutch category with an average of 50.4 points per 48 minutes.
DeRozan has been the Raptors best clutch scorer the last four seasons. Last season, it wasn’t even close – Lowry averaged less than half the number of clutch points.
For the Spurs, Aldridge led the clutch time scoring with a mark of 33.5 points per 48 minutes. San Antonio never had a player during the Tim Duncan Era (or since then) who averaged more than 50 points during 48 minutes of clutch time basketball. DeRozan has done it the last two seasons, which should put in perspective how much the Raptors have leaned on him to win games and how well he’s performed in those situations.
Crux
In a perfect world, Kawhi Leonard would still be wearing silver and black. The natural progression of David Robinson to Tim Duncan to the next generation would have continued. But, for reasons I’m still trying to understand, that didn’t happen.
Did the Spurs hit a home run with their trade with Toronto? No, I wouldn’t say they did. I’d say that got a pretty okay return given the, let’s say, unusual cir stances.
But after diving deep into the stats and the tape, I do believe the Spurs couldn’t have ask for a much better fit. They landed a star player who helps them win now and who fits with the pieces they have in place.
Sure, it’d be great if DeRozan had a history of being a playoff superstar. But, then again, if he would have led the Raptors to the Finals, DeRozan would’ve been regarded as an untouchable national treasure. Instead, the Spurs were able to buy low on an otherwise very good player who could conceivably reach his highest of heights in San Antonio.
Last edited by timvp; 09-27-2018 at 08:24 AM.
Cope.
Great read Timvp. I’m pretty excited to see him play for Pop, see how he fits into the offense, and see if his defensive limitations can be mitigated by the Spurs system. I think, offensively, the Spurs will be better than they were with KL as the focal point of the offense. Kawhi didn’t get his teammates involved nearly as much as I think Derozan will. I see DDR being a much better ‘team’ player than KL. Perhaps the culture of the Spurs will be rescued through this trade rather than destroyed.
Thanks for that write-up. Lots of great work and insight there.
Great read! Here’s to a great season
having the second best offensive rating hardly matters when so little separates you from being the eighth.
no
no. you mentioned the raptors offensive rating was just ahead of the warriors'... raptors' numbers are skewed since they play in the east.
more important parts of your post:
"he's been bad in the POs but he's won a lot of RS games in the east."
long time demar hater here. but i'm optimistic pop can fix him. he can excel in the system. kawhi will excel anywhere.
thanks for the write up but i'd prefer one solely based on his PO "performance".
You really watched all Raptors games? That's what I call dedication! Thanks for the detailed and encouraging analysis. It's funny, but I'm really looking forward to the season. It will be strange without TP, Manu, Danny and Kawhi, but I think we'll do fine. Hopefully the Lakers along the way.
Well done OP. Thanks for the research and a very interesting read. Looking forward to seeing DeMar's debut for SA.
I think DeRozan will be much better on D with the quality coaching he will get in SA for sure. Perhaps to the passable level of Prime Manu (where he was also usually out-muscled by the better SG/SFs like Kobe/Wade etc, but held his own when matched up and wasn't a complete turnstile/agile and good footwork to stay in front of his man).
I also think the Belinelli signing was underrated, as Beli will give guys like Murray and DeRozan a good option to pass out to hit a 3 (LMA can also do the same to feed him). He can be the team's Steve Smith/Danny Ferry/Brent Barry/last year Spur RJ type player if he stays healthy and engaged. , Beli can even try running backup point in a pinch.
Mills will continue to be Mills, no growth there. Just stand out there and shoot 3's. Forbes, same thing. Probably could have used his spot/minutes for a more athletic player like BGame.
I expect Instagram Baller Murray to be better on 1-on-1 offense this year with all the practice he's been getting in to become a better scorer. But he won't turn into Steve Nash in the pick and roll this season. That may have to come in a later iteration of his development. I think the team will have to find out what their iden y is again, but the effort won't be lacking.
Also, if Pop gets over his rookie treatment, Lonnie Walker could provide some good minutes off the bench. And Derrick White perhaps will get some burn as the 3rd string PG, again if Forbes can be shelved for a bit. But I wouldn't hold my breath on that. It will definitely be a guard turnstile with many of them taking turns in the dog house/down in Austin.
Pau Gasol and Jakob Poeltl. Present.
And lastly, Rudy Gay. He's the true X-Factor for this team. I'd presume to say that LMA and DeMar will give the team their 15-20 a night, Murray will be there for defense and about 7-10 points, some boards. But I think on the nights Gay can score 20, we will probably have a very healthy winning record (say 70%). On the nights he scores 10 points or less, I'd say we are probably going to only win 30% of those games due to lack of firepower, on top of the lack of great defense this team will no longer be able to rely on.
Spurs will be a fun regular season team to watch so enjoy the season. Playoffs are going to be terrible to watch though. Leonard is a playoff stud and DeRozan is the opposite. It's clearly a mental issue and those are hard to resolve.
tbh, I'm looking forward to seeing him. He's never going to be prime Manu, mostly because of he's just doesn't have the defensive smarts, but he should be a substantial upgrade over the grandpa version of Manu and Danny League.
I was underwhelemed also,
But for a lot of the reasons you have mentioned I'm somewhat more encouraged. His assists per 36 have increased almost every year and was at 5.5 last year.
Add in the Poodle. Not a bad haul. Yes someone with potential would always seem more enticing than a known palyer like De Mar who has flaws, but where those elite prospects really available?
A quick question- if you really watched all the Raptors games what is your impression of Peoltl?
Been saying this whole time that DeRozan was a Parker replacement more than a Leonard replacement. Appreciate seeing that assertion supported through data. For similar reasons, I still feel like DeMar was the guy SA had been targeting to pair with Leonard and Aldridge. If anyone has legit information to the contrary (like the OP), I'd like to hear it. I do not believe the Spurs had to worry too much about getting a wing for Leonard. They bypassed SFs in the draft and free agency, and had they gotten a guard they liked, they would have been able to correct their depth issues. I just think that you can argue for DeRozan being the best player win-now altogether PATFO could have gotten. btb, What was the thinking behind the win-now focus? Was it financial? Did the team think it owed something to Aldridge? Was it Pop pushing for it? I touched on similar questions yesterday, but the suggestion from the OP that he's heard some of the FO's actual thinking makes me raise those questions again.
The more I watch DeRozan, the more I see him as a guard who will have to play as a wing. He just seems to play smaller than he is. His apparently inability to competently defend his position is an issue. But by all means, he should play with a PG and SF rather than a PG and SG. Not to continue kicking the out of these horse bones, but that's why the particulars of the trade are so annoying despite DMDR himself being a good player, I've never doubted that DeMar himself is a good player, but he needs support that he doesn't have. , the whole team needs such support. Either guys are really going to have to step up to fill those supporting roles, or the team will have to acquire guys who will. I don't have faith that either result will happen, but I guess we'll have to see.
Still underwhelmed. We will be better than last year, but we aren't going anywhere with this team. Maybe 4-5 years ago...
Amazing post. Thanks for the time you put on it.
I think the introduction describes very well any Spurs fan feelings this summer. Whilst the main part of the post gives us real data and knowledge about what can we really expect from DeRozan and these Spurs. It also helps us to understand better the trade and PATFO optimism.
I wish I could have watched all that tape, I barely could watch a couple games. I can't discuss as I don't have enough information but your conclusions seem right to me.
Speaking of defense, DDR should be a decent on-ball defender if not a good one. All the physical tools he uses attacking should serve him in defense to control his man. Off-the-ball defense is another story but here we have to trust Popovich and the Spurs being historically good on positioning, helping out, rotating and contesting shots.
Offensively, I'm only concerned about two things. How much will his dribble game slow down the ball movement? And without the ball on his hands: Will he attract enough his man to the 3pt line or will the defense collapse and give him space? This second is critical in San Antonio and a mystery to be revealed by DeRozan as he never has played next to a low-post force like Aldridge. I guess yesterday's clips of LA and Pop were related to this.
Isn't our excitement about this season growing every minute?
I like DD game. Always have. It's old school and fun. But the sooner we all accept he is not a replacement for Leonard, the quicker we move on.
They had the 4th best offensive rating against the west.
great post timvp...appreciate it very much!
What I find the most interesting is this comment:
It's made me temper my expectations on Murray a bit. I expect him to be better offensively but frankly he wasn't good last year offensively and everything about his offensive game save transition scoring is questionable. It may take him years to be reliable and consistent. He's far from his prime at 22. He can already do some things very well which is a great foundation from which to grow (defensively)... but it kinda was a downer when I read it. Their choice makes perfect sense though within this context as you point out. HOpefully the team is a lot better and they figure things out.The other condition the Spurs had to account for was the unique skill set of the other piece on the roster that may develop into a foundational building block: Dejounte Murray. Although it’s easy to project him to be an elite defensive point guard over the next decade, his long-term fit offensively is murky. What’s clear is that Murray is unlikely to develop into even an average playmaker, especially in the next few seasons.
With those two conditions set, what the Spurs needed in return for Leonard could be distilled into a basic idea: a shooting guard or small forward who can provide scoring punch while also being capable of providing playmaking skills typically found in a point guard.
Taking an elementary look at the landscape, there were only four targets who fit the positional requisite (swingman), the scoring requisite (at least 20 points per game) and the playmaking requisite (5 assists per game): LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden and DeMar DeRozan.
I am conflicted on them going for win now pieces considering a championship doesn't seem possible save an injury flurry, but I obviously don't run a business. They needed to stay relevant and compe ive facing the loss of some real fan attraction draws like Manu retiring, Tony reaching the end of an elite playable state, and the inevitable loss of the Nephew, etc.
Derozan will be a positive fresh change after last year’s debacle. He will come out swinging with everyone else in that locker room playing with a chip on his shoulder. And that’s great that every expert put us under radar. I feel that same hunger in 2014 on everybody. I’m gonna root hard for this guy. I think he has the mamba at ude to improve and perfect his game every year, to win, not just to pad stats like Westbrook, but a real team player. He will be loyal whose jersey would be up there someday. I’m very happy Spurs got him and Poeltl when that ingrate purposely tried to sabotage Spurs chances of getting a decent return. Funny how Spurs only looking for the good guys actually swapped nephew to a better person who will be a better teammate and better Spurs ambassador. I expect him, with much improved Murray to be a great duo, and hopefully could convince a great 6’10” to join us. I really feel Spurs are missing just that one great SF/PF to propel us back to championship. Or maybe Lonnie turn out to be that Donovan Mitc of the draft and move Demar to SF. Murray/Lonnie/Derozan/LMA/Poetl
Huge drop off from Kawhi when it comes to postseason
Thanks for the post, I get sick of the bs posts that pop up here at times and Im glad to read a serious one. One other thing about the trade is that KL had become a cancer to the team and regardless of talent his being gone can only help in that regard. Frankly I'm much sadder we had to lose Green.
I watched the playoffs. I'm pretty sure there was no Kawhi.
Great writeup.
I've said it before, but I think the Spurs did about as well as we could've hoped for with the Kawhi trade when you take into consideration how Leonard hamstrung his trade value.
The Lakers obviously feel like they could get him in free agency and were only offering trash. The Clippers only had trash to offer in the first place. Boston made all of their desirable pieces (Irving, Hayward, Tatum, Brown) untouchable. Philly wasn't going to give up Simmons or Embiid, and the Spurs (rightfully) didn't want to take a flyer on a headcase in Fultz when they already have Murray waiting in the wings.
Outside of that...the only other assets available were mediocre draft picks, and those are never guaranteed to pan out. Unless you have a top 3 pick, you are taking a shot in the dark.
Yes, giving up Green was a tough blow and the main reason why I can't say the trade was a total success...but the Spurs still walked away with two players who were both top-10 picks. One has already established himself as one of the top swingmen in the game, and the other is fresh off a season where he flashed his potential and is coming into an opportunity that should suit him perfectly. For better or worse, they know exactly what they were getting into.
Obviously, I'm not one of the proponents of blowing it up and going full rebuild, especially during Pop's final years. Settling on a package of draft picks would have essentially been the Spurs folding their hand over the loss of one player, and that would have been the real disappointment in my opinion.
Don’t forget that the trade isn’t over yet. Yeah I know it’s about this season but the first round pick we get from this can turn into an amazing young player (or not but there’s the chance of it) or Spurs could flip both picks for a higher pick and land a really good SF.
I am disappointed they lost Green and didn't replace him. Sentimentality aside, Danny had declined the past 3 seasons and had troubles with an offense that was centered on the post. His shots didn't come the same way affecting his percentages greatly and the Spurs had seemed willing to trade him for at least the past couple of seasons. He was huge in seasons past, Long as he was known but he just hasn't been the same guy for a while.
However, not having a real wing defender to place next to Derozan is kinda a black hole.
I suspect this is going to be like last season's Joffrey Lauvergne situation. The Spurs went into last season with just 3 bigs, one of them was unplayable (JOLO) (I excluded Bertans from the 3 bigs bc he's a hybrid, and not a traditional big you expect to rebound, etc) it was an issue the entire season. Obviously the Kawhi situation overshadowed other roster deficiencies, but it just never got resolved and a few of those losses were due to LMA resting and Pau just not being able to carry the team's big on his own (frankly unfair and too much to expect from him)... I would have loved a Poltl last season if you know what I mean.
So I kinda expect the wing defender situation to be an unresolved issue all season if Cunningham, Pondexter, Blossomgame or whomever turn out to be JOLO like (almost impossible since JOLO was so bad, but it's not completely impossible). I am rooting for someone to emerge, maybe Walker? Could be one of the vets ... (more likely).
Great post, timvp. Thanks.
Pounding the Rock's new contributor CharlieOCharles along with another guy came up with a series of posts on P&R and the news Spurs team, plus DeRozan's fit apart from other things that were quite illuminating and well worth a read. They emphasise the importance of having a ball handling swing man like DeRozan's whose only advantage over Leonard is his ability in P&R situations, both in finishing/shooting as handler or involving the big man in such situations.
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