I think the 2022 draft isn't very good. Not at the very top - no real tier 1 prospects, not in the lottery and probably not in the latter parts as well. Of course there will likely be some players surpassing expectations, but overall I don't feel good about the draft at all. I'll probably be way off on some, or most of these but here we go.
Tier 1
Chet Holmgren - still have him at 1, even though he doesn't project as a no. 1 offensive option. More of a 2nd/3rd banana. High ceiling though, because of his defense, feel and shooting. I think he can play a role similar to Jaren Jackson Jr
Paolo Banchero - not convinced with his shot and his defense especially but he's one of 3 players, who could become a 1st option. My comparison is NY Julius Randle
Jaden Ivey - another player who might be a 1st option but he has to improve in a lot of areas. What I don't like is that he's at his best being the primary ballhandler, but his passing, vision and ballhandling aren't great. If he plays off the ball his value drops. People like to compare him to Morant but I think he's closer to a Lavine, who took his time to get comfortable in the league
Jabari Smith - great shooting and better than you'd think at defense but he has a lot holes - can't get to the rim at all, can't create his own shot, etc. they're stated in all mocks. I think Jerami Grant with more upside is a good comparison
Shaedon Sharpe - the last one who could grow into a main banana, offensively at least. Super difficult to be evaluated by us armchair GMs, it'll depend on his workouts but he could be a Jalen Green/Anthony Edwards type. Not sure he could get to the rim as easily as these two though
Tier 2
Keegan Murray - he's skilled and good at a lot of things, not sure he'll be elite at anything. He overpowers players often and I'm not sure the way he scores receiving the ball on the block and creating for himself will work against NBA athletes. I could see him being a Marcus Morris if his shot translates, or similar to Obi Toppin. If he shatters expectations why not a Siakam even
Ben Mathurin - good scorer and shooter but doesn't project to be much of a ballhandler or a passer. Passable defense at best too. Maybe a Norm Powell
Johnny Davis - I think his shooting percentages are a bit lower due to being the only good player on a bad team, forced to create and shoot of the dribble a lot. Is it because of bad spacing or because he can't create enough separation? Probably both. I see some Caris Levert in his game, maybe he could grow to be a Khris Middleton? I think he has one of the highest upsides after tier 1
Tier 3
Jeremy Sochan - obvious positives but he hasn't shown a glimpse of hope for his shooting. Still, even if he grows to be an average shooter there's good value there because of his versatility and intangibles. Maybe he becomes what Chuma Okeke was going to be before his injury, or a better version of Joe Ingles. There's a lot of Bobo in his demeanor
AJ Griffin - he's super weird to me because I always have the expectation that he's a great athlete but he plays like a below average one, possibly because of his injuries or because of Duke's suspect spacing. Has a very wide frame when shooting but it goes in. Really not sure what to make of him... Gary Trent Jr..?
Jalen Duren - rim protection and rebounding will translate but can he be a switchable defender? Not sure. Will he ever be an OK shooter? Not sure. His passing and possibility to be able to guard on the perimeter would be his swing skills, other than that he's your average rim running athlete, a dime a dozen. Or he could be your Bam Adebayo.
Jaden Hardy - I like him more than most mocks and think his struggles in the gleague are understandable. Of course his flaws are clear as well but he has ballhandling, shooting and passing upside that most players in this draft lack. Not dissimilar to our Josh Primo
Dyson Daniels - he does many things well, except for shooting, a proper swiss army knife type of player. I don't see him as more than a glue guy but this is valuable as well. A taller Derrick White, if you will
Malaki Branham - there's so much to like about him and he has progressed so well as the season went on, game after game. By march he was a different player compared to his first games. Not great athleticism but he knows how to play
Patrick Baldwin Jr - his struggles have become notorious during the season but his shooting form is so awesome it's impossible that it won't translate. Biggest question mark is his motor. Looked disinterested a lot. If he can become a Cameron Johnson he'll be good value in the teens
Others I like :
Ousmane Dieng - was terrible at the beginning of the season but has progressed well, flashing a lot of skills but still with a ton of questions. What I don't like is that he doesn't have a bankable skill , everything is theoretical
Tari Eason - could be a plug and play kind of a rookie but I'm not convinced his defense will translate because he's not disciplined enough. His other skills aren't that enticing if he can't be a lockdown defender
Mark Williams - second best rim running center in the draft after Duren. Actually he could be better if Duren's upside proves disappointing. He's a what you see is what you get player, a lot like Poeltl
Bryce McGowans - inefficient but he looks the part of an NBA player. Looks a lot like DeJounte to me when he plays, not as a player comparison, just something about him reminds me of DJ. Better comparison is Jordan Poole
Kendall Brown - actually I don't like him too much, he's trended downwards as the season progressed and was unplayable in march madness, but he has shown enough flashes that if the Spurs actually draft him I'd be excited ( this is true for a few players )
Some players I don't like:
Ochai Agbaji - I might be very wrong about him and I definitely see him as immediately more impactful than most of the players above but there's something that seems off to me
EJ Liddell - similar to Agbaji
Blake Wesley - I see his theoretical upside and could compare him to McGowans who I like, but his shot doesn't look good to me
TyTy Washington - sure he can be the next Herro or Maxey. Or not. I tend to think not
Walker Kessler - worse Mark Williams, wouldn't hate him at the end of the 1st I guess. Really don't see him being even average as a switchable defender
Kennedy Chandler - I'm probably underestimating him because he's too small. He's feistier defender than you'd expect. Just don't see him as a fit on the Spurs
Jean Montero - similar to Chandler, but like him even less
Christian Braun - when a guy you like doesn't have an elite skill you call him a glue guy, when you don't like him you say he doesn't have a good NBA skill. I don't like Braun
Wendell Moore - similar to Braun
Marjon Beauchamp - great name, other than that...
Nikola Jovic - similar to Dieng in that all of his skills are theoretical. Dieng > Jovic imo, but I wouldn't hate it if he's a draft and stash with the Boston pick
Christian Koloko - the worst of the rim running bigs projected in the first round
Caleb Love - inefficient chucker, turnover machine, too small, just no
Players I like for draft and stash: Kamagate, Spagnolo and Procida - I expect some of these to rise up mock drafts
Pre-draft type of guys I'd like with Tor/Bos picks if they stay in the draft - John Butler, Max Christie, JD Davison, Josh Minott, Caleb Houstan, Peyton Watson
Players I like as 2nd round flyers - Jaylin Williams, Dalen Terry, Jake LaRavia, Justin Lewis
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I mean this is all speculation and guessing when you come down to it. No one knows how any player is going to take to the NBA until they do so.
