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  1. #3726
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    ah yeah, I was specifically focused on stars who come out of the 10. If the objective of tanking is to get a star in the top 10 (as you should since those guys have a much higher contract than anyone else picked later and at the end of the contract they tend to overpay for any little hope left that theyll reach their potential), then you have failed if all you got was a role player. So yes, i am casting a smaller net.
    We aren’t really talking about the same thing. You’ll understand my point better if you get where I am coming from.

    I don’t want the Spurs to be the ones stuck gambling and getting a potential that ends up being a zero, an unplayable, a real bust. It’s arguable Samanic is starting to fall into this category for example.

    I know the chances are small the Spurs draft a star, and sometimes the guy that ends up being the star doesn’t look like that early. But he’ll at least contribute something right away like Kawhi, Paul George, etc. I mean sometimes the guy looks like he’ll be one from his first season, but not always. However, he will at least be a good player pretty early and give you flashes, that’s my more humble goal. I want a good player. Now turning that good player into the star that’s the tough tough goal.

    So for me I define bust more narrowly, because there’s guys that are the unplayables, the true busts, and those are the ones I want to avoid.

    It doesn’t matter for my point how widely you define bust, for me I want to avoid a bad player, one who will need a ton of Gleague before you can even see what it is that he can do at the NBA level because certain things you projected never turned out. I think for Samanic that was shooting. I believe he was expected to add that to his game and without it he was beat to the spot by others. He may not be unplayable (we should find out next season) but he’s been marginal. I believe he’ll get chances next season because the Spurs need to find what they have, I hope he’s ready.

    But for my point, I draw some relief from the fact that the biggest swing and misses will probably happen somewhere between 1-10, leaving some better prospects for the next tier. Not necessarily stars (although possible, though they may not be recognizable as such), but some pretty good players will be there at 12, and I trust the Spurs to find them.

    Another way of saying it:

    So much attention is paid to drafting that one needle in the haystack, but how about not drafting all that hay that looks like a needle? Spurs aren’t immune to it, but if all that confusing needle-looking hay goes top 10, then yay!! That’s basically where I am coming from. The less chances one of those true busts “falls” to the Spurs the better, so let the huge gambles go high!

    Bc then the Spurs have a better pool to find the potential needle, or at least some of the playable hay.

  2. #3727
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    My idea of a bust is pick position dependent. Marvin Bagley of Sacramento is my example. He was the #2 overall pick in 2017. His numbers are startlingly consistent at about 14.5p/7.5r, and they track flat over his 3 years, very little variance. That’s a bad th8ng for someone on a rookie deal. You want to see improvement. In addition, his advanced stats are awful, negative nearly across the board. If you had minutes to give him, you could get a big off the waiver wire, plug him in, and expect those numbers. A clear bust IMO. Here’s the kicker: if he were picked at, say, #15, I wouldn’t consider him a bust. There aren’t the expectations further back in the round that there are at the top.
    This is entirely correct and is the better explanation of the concept.

    Since the Spurs aren’t drafting at 2, my concern isn’t getting the star… some drafts only have one, you’d want to be the one who gets him, but the Spurs aren’t at 1-4.

    They could still draft a bust for their spot, meaning they gamble so high that they miss on other good players available. Spurs aren’t known for this kind of thing. It’s been rarer for them but they aren’t immune to a gamble here and there on a guy that’s incomplete. They’d need X or Y or Z to be playable. You’d hope the guy develops if, but he doesn’t.

    No one hits bullseye 100% and I think the Spurs hit more than most but they need hits now.

  3. #3728
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    I think there are three basic paths to being a star. A) A player is a star in college/overseas and comes in still being a star; B) A player comes in raw and ends up booming into a star; C) A player comes in with a well-defined niche and is thought of as a role-player but then develops into a star. We should all be able to see that the most likely path is A). That's the reason why so many stars come from top picks. Not every A) is a top pick. Lillard, Mitc and potentially Haliburton are examples of guys drafted out of the top-five picks who end up just continuing on. The disagreement is that I think a lot of fans believe that B) is significantly more common than C), to the point that the downside of trying for B) and missing against the downside of missing C) and getting a role-player is somehow smaller than the upside difference. To put it another way, those folks seem to believe that having a bigger gap between a player's floor and their ceiling is the same as having a higher ceiling. I don't actually agree with this assumption. Very few raw players develop into stars, and even though guys in C) don't usually become top-five players, top-five players are usually guys in A) anyway, and once you get down to like third-tier stars you end up seeing a higher percentage of guys in C) than in B) anyway.

    As I've said before development isn't actually something than can be summed up in a simple graph. Like you can't say, "In X years, this player has some percentage chance of being good, and that's worth passing up on this other player who doesn't have a chance to be that good." It's not just about how good you can end up being. It's how effective a player will be at various points in time, how confident a staff can be at adding certain skills, how useful the player will be over the life of their time with the club, and maybe an overlooked fact -- how valuable will this player be on the trade market at various points of time. A guy from B) might be more valuable on the trade market for the first couple of years, but guys in C) will end up being really useful in collecting future assets since they're coveted by both contenders and mediocre teams. Guys in B) are at best players who might help get a star from a rebuilding team, provided they're developing well enough to not show a bust downside yet.

    As I've also said before, the idea that the Spurs need to find a way to draft a franchise talent as their primary goal is antiquated. Not only are most stars acquired by trade nowadays, but guys on bad or even meh teams will ask out much more frequently. You can't draft a star and then build a team around him, because stars are usually too impatient for that. You have to basically be able to build a le contending team within two or three years of a star emerging. The idea of drafting a KD/RW/JH trio and keeping them together for a decade just won't happen anymore. It didn't even happen eight years ago or whenever the Thunder traded Harden, and the NBA wasn't where it is now. A no, it's not "Still the best way for a small-market team to build". The strategy is just more free-agent oriented for large-market teams. Trading is critical to both.

    I think I'm spinning off a bit. The point I'm basically making is that the Spurs shouldn't worry about looking for a franchise player, especially if they're doing that by looking at raw guys with "upside" over established players with a clear NBA floor. If you draft a bunch of Brogdon's, you can make the moves to become a dark-horse than if you draft a bunch of raw, skinny 18-year-olds. You just have to be willing to let those Brogdon's go to get better pieces rather than coveting them or comparing them to stars.

  4. #3729
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    What do people think of Kispert ? Not your prospect with a lot of potential but he could fill the need of shooting, he is lethal in that area.
    True SF imo with good size, Not an elite athlet, doesn't look bad but not explosive, he can drive, shoot of the dribble....

    The concern are his age and ceilling and he could be gone before our pick. And the Defense, i don't how he will be in the NBA but i think he can guard correctly SF not named Durant, Kawhi....



    A little bit long but interesting.
    I hadn’t watched him, but I like him. Reminds me a little of McBucketts, which is a FA I liked, but I think he could be better.

    Anyways, I think he would help this Spurs team more than a few other projects that will need gleague and still won’t ever shoot like that.

    he’s not one dimensional either, drives well, finishes well at the rim, is athletic.

  5. #3730
    Veteran ginobilized's Avatar
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    I hadn’t watched him, but I like him. Reminds me a little of McBucketts, which is a FA I liked, but I think he could be better.

    Anyways, I think he would help this Spurs team more than a few other projects that will need gleague and still won’t ever shoot like that.

    he’s not one dimensional either, drives well, finishes well at the rim, is athletic.
    I’m warming up to Kispert, too.
    Super shooter. He’d add a lot to the Spurs. The good news is that it will be a fluke or act of God to stop us from getting a good prospect.

  6. #3731
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    We aren’t really talking about the same thing. You’ll understand my point better if you get where I am coming from.

    I don’t want the Spurs to be the ones stuck gambling and getting a potential that ends up being a zero, an unplayable, a real bust. It’s arguable Samanic is starting to fall into this category for example.

    I know the chances are small the Spurs draft a star, and sometimes the guy that ends up being the star doesn’t look like that early. But he’ll at least contribute something right away like Kawhi, Paul George, etc. I mean sometimes the guy looks like he’ll be one from his first season, but not always. However, he will at least be a good player pretty early and give you flashes, that’s my more humble goal. I want a good player. Now turning that good player into the star that’s the tough tough goal.

    So for me I define bust more narrowly, because there’s guys that are the unplayables, the true busts, and those are the ones I want to avoid.

    It doesn’t matter for my point how widely you define bust, for me I want to avoid a bad player, one who will need a ton of Gleague before you can even see what it is that he can do at the NBA level because certain things you projected never turned out. I think for Samanic that was shooting. I believe he was expected to add that to his game and without it he was beat to the spot by others. He may not be unplayable (we should find out next season) but he’s been marginal. I believe he’ll get chances next season because the Spurs need to find what they have, I hope he’s ready.

    But for my point, I draw some relief from the fact that the biggest swing and misses will probably happen somewhere between 1-10, leaving some better prospects for the next tier. Not necessarily stars (although possible, though they may not be recognizable as such), but some pretty good players will be there at 12, and I trust the Spurs to find them.

    Another way of saying it:

    So much attention is paid to drafting that one needle in the haystack, but how about not drafting all that hay that looks like a needle? Spurs aren’t immune to it, but if all that confusing needle-looking hay goes top 10, then yay!! That’s basically where I am coming from. The less chances one of those true busts “falls” to the Spurs the better, so let the huge gambles go high!

    Bc then the Spurs have a better pool to find the potential needle, or at least some of the playable hay.
    to sum it up: you want the prospect to show something short term for you to believe there’s something there long term

    i mean, that’s a scouting philosophy and something I’ve been preaching since day 1. It’s evident by the players I have in my higher tiers. The lower tiers contain the guys who I don’t have as much confidence will be playable in the short term and others, I feel like dont have much to show after showing something in the short term. With a #12 pick I expect more than that.

    We just both have a different definition of what a bust is. I don’t necessarily think there are big swings in the top 10… a lot of those guys look like they all have enough talent to show something in the short term. Where we differ in our view is our expectations after the short term. I’d rather fail hard than get a worthless investment in a role player in the top 10. That’s all it is and it’s okay. Ultimately, i want to get a player who looks good immediately but also shows star potential occasionally too.

  7. #3732
    Believe.
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  8. #3733
    Starter off the bench Uriel's Avatar
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    Ha ha ha ha!!! You still hold out hope?
    That ship sailed homie.
    Has it though? Milutinov is only 26, roughly the same age Tiago was when he joined our team.

  9. #3734
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Thor had dinner with the Spurs and had a cheeseburger

    Feels like they’ve worked out everyone from the draft pool at this point

  10. #3735
    Believe.
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    Guessing no workout since him and Lonnie share the same agent. Lonnie is up for extension too.

  11. #3736
    Believe. PhantomDashCam's Avatar
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    Come on Jalen… They kind of are.

  12. #3737
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    Come on Jalen… They kind of are.
    His last sentence is exactly what a lot of assholes I've known in my life have said about themselves.

  13. #3738
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    Come on Jalen… They kind of are.
    Jalen ordered steak and lobster and a bottle of Screaming Eagle

  14. #3739
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    Jalen ordered steak and lobster and a bottle of Screaming Eagle
    He ate with his hands and left halfway through.

  15. #3740
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    He ate with his hands and left halfway through.

  16. #3741
    Believe.
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    Would be great to pick him up as an undrafted FA. He’s underrated; energy big, who can shoot a bit.

  17. #3742
    Veteran BG_Spurs_Fan's Avatar
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    Has it though? Milutinov is only 26, roughly the same age Tiago was when he joined our team.
    It's unlikely because the value of true centers has dropped in the NBA and they're rarely worth the MLE or near MLE salary. Milutinov makes a lot of money in Europe right now and would have to take a paycut to go to the NBA. Doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who'd do it.

  18. #3743
    Believe. PhantomDashCam's Avatar
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    Draft is going to be bananas...

    Both prospects rumored to have completed two workouts with the same team:

    Williams - Orlando
    Sengun - Charlotte.




  19. #3744
    Believe. JuneJive's Avatar
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    What are some good draft boards out there?

    Some links? ( not espn or the other big ones )

  20. #3745
    Peace! bluebellmaniac's Avatar
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    5 Days until the Draft!

    It's all becoming as clear as mud who we are taking!

  21. #3746
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Drafting Ziaire would be the most Magic thing to do. Please do it.

  22. #3747
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    I take all these dinners with a grain of salt until I hear that Luka took them to Sugar’s for surf and turf.
    It’s also about building the long term Spurs brand as “first class” organization, etc. Plus you never know who the next John Collins is in 4 years looking for a new destinations— in the grand scheme of things 4 years is very little time.

  23. #3748
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    Drafting Ziaire would be the most Magic thing to do. Please do it.
    That’s how I view Kuminga. Classic Orlando profile: super athlete, huge raw talent, and/or tantalizing physical tools, but unclear what his true skillset is (see Bamba, Issac, Herzonia)

  24. #3749
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    Moody is interesting, but he’d have to either be super elite at shooting at next level or become
    a better finisher around the rim. Seems like he doesnt really get off the ground that much around the rim or just is slow.

  25. #3750
    The Great Eight Ocotillo's Avatar
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    I am thinking I want smart, high BBIQ and less super athlete with potential. Super athlete is likely to spend a year or two toiling in Austin and while the team has a good track record of drafting and developing guys, it feels like we are getting to the point where some of our "young players" are getting close to, if not aging out, at least entering the stage of their playing career where they now the veteran players.

    I understand the desire for the potential of a guy like Kai Jones but by the time he is ready, DWhite will be knocking on the door of turning 30.
    Last edited by Ocotillo; 07-24-2021 at 09:04 AM. Reason: typo, of course

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